I'd like to embrace the utter unlikelihood of what Chris Waters did last night.
As we see in a sidebar
here, Waters became just the sixth pitcher in the past 50 years to throw eight-plus innings with no runs and one hit in a major league debut. I'd like to expand on that a bit, and include the pitcher (there's only one) who gave up one hit
and a run (unearned), and also list each pitcher's age when it happened:
Age Year IP H R BB SO
Chris Waters 27 2008 8 1 0 3 3
Steve Woodard 22 1997 8 1 0 1 12
Bob Milacki 24 1988 8 1 0 4 4
Jimmy Jones 22 1986 9 1 0 0 5
Billy Rohr 21 1967 9 1 0 5 2
Rudy May 20 1965 9 1 1 5 10
Juan Marichal 22 1960 9 1 0 1 12
The two best strategies for allowing very few hits: Strike out a lot of hitters, and pitch in the 1960s. May and Marichal did both. Woodard struck out 12, and Rohr pitched in the 1960s.
Granted, neither Jones nor Milacki qualified on either count. The most unlikely of all, though?
Waters isn't even supposed to be in the major leagues. Look at the ages for each of those pitchers; before Waters, fellow Oriole Milacki was the oldest to make a similarly spectacular debut … and Waters is more than three years older than Milacki was. And although Milacki might not have been a Grade A prospect when he reached the majors in September 1988, that summer he'd gone 12-8 with a 2.70 ERA for Triple-A Rochester.
Just looking at the ages of the other pitchers on this list, it seems likely that all had done impressive work in the minors. We do know that Marichal's a Hall of Famer, and we know that May won 152 games in the majors and was still pitching at 39.
Waters, though?
He's not built like a pitcher. He's listed as being 6 feet tall, 170 pounds, which means he's probably 5-foot-10 and 165 pounds. The Braves did like him enough in 2000 to draft him out of South Florida Community College in the fifth round. After initially pitching well as a professional, Waters stalled out; four years after being drafted, he was still pitching in Class A, and wasn't pitching particularly well. And after an unimpressive Double-A season (2006), the Braves cut Waters loose.
Last year, pitching for the Orioles' Double-A team, Waters went 8-9 with a 4.49 ERA. Before this season, he wasn't even listed among the Orioles' top 30 prospects, and he shouldn't have been. He is (or rather, was) a 27-year-old Double-A pitcher with yawn-inspiring numbers.
This year? Finally, Waters blew through Double-A: 5-0 with a 1.69 ERA in six starts. Then came a promotion to Triple-A, where he … stunk: 3-6 with a 5.70 ERA in 18 games.
So why did he get the call to the majors, finally? In Waters' last start for Norfolk, last Thursday against Lehigh Valley, he pitched seven innings and gave up one hit.
That's right. In what must be the greatest week of his professional life, Waters has given up two hits in 15 innings.
All of which is unlikely enough. Just as unlikely: Waters already is enjoying a significant major league career. He won't be the best pitcher on that list and probably won't match Steve Woodard's 32 career wins. (Interesting tidbit: After three years out of baseball, Woodard is
pitching in the minors again, and you never know.)
However, I do give Waters a 50-50 chance of catching Billy Rohr, who finished his career with three major league wins.
Rob Neyer
