In 1998, Rolando Arrojo pitched for the American League All-Star team. Arrojo finished his brief major league career with 40 wins, 42 losses, and a 4.55 ERA.
In 1988,
Kurt Stillwell played shortstop for the American League. Stillwell did play in the majors for nine seasons, but finished his career with a .311 on-base percentage and a .349 slugging percentage, and was not regarded as a defensive wizard.
In 1978,
Biff Pocoroba caught an inning for the National League. Pocoroba finished his career with 374 hits.
In 1968,
Duane Josephson caught a couple of innings for the American League. Josephson finished his career with 388 hits.
No, they can't all be
Hank Aaron and
Alex Rodriguez. And to be sure,
every All-Star is better than most major leaguers who
aren't All-Stars. But it really is amazing, how many "All-Stars" wound up with lesser careers than
many players who never get that All-Star nod.
So who will it be in 2008?
Cristian Guzman's a tempting choice; he's not a great shortstop and his career hitting stats are even less impressive than Stillwell's. But Guzman did play well last year, and he's playing well this year. So he's probably going to stick in the majors for a few more years and might even finish with more than 1,500 hits. So he's probably not our man.
Ryan Ludwick? Now here's a fine, fine candidate. Ludwick just turned 30, and before this season he'd never even played regularly in the majors. On the other hand, he's played so brilliantly this year that he'll almost certainly be a regular for at least another couple of seasons, and might wind up with more than 100 home runs.
What about
Dioner Navarro? Like Ludwick, Navarro's an All-Star in his first season as an everyday player … but he's not really an everyday player, having played only 69 games so far. Last year he batted .227/.286/.356, and wasn't even an afterthought in everybody's rotisserie drafts this spring. What's more, when you make a list of obscure All-Stars over the years, you're going to wind up with a bunch of catchers. So maybe Navarro's our man … except he's only 24, and was highly regarded as a prospect, and catchers often take a while to develop as hitters. Anybody want to bet he
doesn't enjoy a productive major league career?
Let's focus on the pitchers, then.
Jack Armstrong,
James Baldwin,
Ricky Bottalico,
Chris Capuano,
Lance Carter and
Shawn Chacon are just a few of the pitchers in recent memory who have graced All-Star teams, and today none of them seem like future Hall of Famers.
So let's focus on the pitchers, and particularly two relievers:
Brian Wilson and
George Sherrill. Both made their respective teams because they've racked up a lot of saves -- Sherrill with 28, Wilson with 25 -- but both have ERAs that suggest they may find themselves in different, nonstarring roles as soon as next season.
And then you've got the wild cards, the young starting pitchers --
Tim Lincecum,
Edinson Volquez,
Joe Saunders -- who, as these things go, might never again pitch as well as they have in the first half of this season.
Dave Stenhouse, anyone?
Rob Neyer
