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Everybody loves mock NBA drafts and player rankings. They are fun, informative, thought-provoking and can spur great discussion. However, it has become clear to me over the years that the practice putting out a mock draft or player ranking for a draft that is 12 months away has a downside, and young players and their parents or guardians should be careful not to take these things too seriously. It has become commonplace in our culture to look forward to a future event before we have had a chance to digest the current event. Barely after the buzzer of the 2008 Final Four, we ranked the top teams for 2009, even though we had little idea which players were returning. It seems so harmless, and it's done in fun and to promote debate. But, that practice is just about teams and has little influence or traction. Similarly, just hours after the NBA draft, there are mock drafts and player rankings up on almost every basketball site you can think of. While most would understand not to take such things as the gospel truth, the practice can be taken quite seriously by the subjects of it, and it has much more influence and traction than the team projections. Right or wrong, the young players that are the subjects of such mock drafts or rankings can be influenced by them. I have had players and their family members tell me so. But, those same people do not seem to fully understand how unreliable or variable such projections can be this far in advance of the 2009 draft. Heck, mock drafts have shown unreliability two days before a draft, so how can one reasonably expect them to be accurate a year in advance? No one can accurately forecast the 2009 NBA draft before a single dribble of the 2008-09 season has been taken.
Last year at this time, nobody had Russell Westbrook and Joe Alexander in the top 10 (or even the top 50), and DeAndre Jordan was considered a lottery pick. No NBA team would even bother to have players ranked for next year's draft right now. It would be a waste of their time and resources. Every team does have a list of prospects to monitor and add to as the year progresses, but none would bother to rank them this early. With today's prospects being so young and impressionable, and the current culture of skipping steps around the game, the ranking of NBA prospects this early can put false ideas and expectations into the inexperienced noggins of kids and their advisors. It can also provide questionable information for use as ammunition by the predators in the game trying to latch onto these kids. Mock drafts and player rankings done this early don't carry disclaimers, but perhaps they should. Most reasonable people would agree that too many things can and will change before next year's draft, and that these mocks and rankings are subject to change and should be taken with a grain of salt. But, players and their families can sometimes be unreasonable in their views. Players and their advisors should take these early mock drafts and player rankings for what they are: fun projections that are not to be taken too seriously and not to be relied upon. At least not yet.
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Jay Bilas
