Sometimes it's worth looking back. Yesterday SportsHubLA looked back at the Lo Duca/Penny deal; specifically, the Dodgers trading Paul Lo Duca, Guillermo Mota and Juan Encarnacion to the Marlins for Brad Penny, Hee Seop Choi, and a minor-league pitcher. As you might recall (I certainly do), the writers in Los Angeles were apoplectic. How could Google Boy trade Lo Duca, the Dodgers' heart and soul?
As things turned out, the Dodgers played well after the deal and got into the playoffs, though with little help from Penny, who won just one game before hitting the DL. Nevertheless, the Dodgers had Penny under contract in 2005, and that June they signed him to a three-year extension. Which seems to have worked out:
For those who put a premium on chemistry and good guyness, the irony, of course, is that Lo Duca emerged as one of the colossal wankers in baseball over the past few seasons. Meanwhile, Penny -- after some initial brattiness in his first season and a half with the Dodgers -- has matured into a guy who has learned to pivot his cockiness into confidence. Character is a funny and evolutionary thing (see the disgruntlement of Pierre, Juan)
In July 2006 -- two years after the trade -- baseball mystic Bill Plaschke wrote, "Two seasons after joining the Dodgers in one of the most controversial trades in club history, Brad Penny was the starting pitcher for the National League All-Star team. And the truth is, the trade still stinks. Stunk then. Stinks now. Smells forever."
Forever is a long time to a myopic. Three-and-a-half seasons later, Penny continues to anchor the Dodger staff … at a rate of $8.5M in 2008. Next year, at age 31, he'll receive $8.75M -- a full $1.25M less than Juan Pierre. With the possible exception of Jake Peavy's four-year/$14.5M dollar deal between 2005-2008, Brad Penny has been one of the best value contracts in baseball among post-arbitration players over the past four seasons. And Paul Lo Duca, 36, has been Nationalized.
Forget that the presence of Lo Duca would've blocked Russell Martin's development, and Guillermo Mota's flameout, and that Finley was gotten for a song. Critics of the trade have never confronted the salient question, which is this: In cutting ties with an aging free agent catcher in favor of a young Top 20 starter entering his prime, isn't it just possible that Paul DePodesta had enough foresight to recognize a 2008 spreadsheet opportunity when he saw it in 2004? Isn't it foolish to pass judgment on a long-term move in the short-term? And isn't it senseless to treat "character" and "leadership" as if they're static features, especially when you're talking about 25-year-old jocks?
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Last year the Dodgers' two best pitchers were Penny and
Derek Lowe, who between them earned $17 million. This year they'll earn $18.5 million. When DePodesta signed Lowe to a four-year, $36 million deal after the 2004 season -- in which Lowe posted a 5.42 ERA -- I didn't understand it. I didn't rip the deal because I had (and have) such a high regard for DePodesta. I asked him about it, and his reasoning seemed reasonable enough. I still didn't understand it.
Now I understand. DePodesta believed that Lowe would thrive in the National League, and in Dodger Stadium, and that his durability alone carried a great deal of value. He believed that the financial market for starting pitchers would only go up, and up. Well, Lowe's ERA+'s over the last three seasons are 114, 124 and 118, and he's averaged 34 starts per season. And at $9 million per season he -- like Penny -- has been a bargain.
Someone asked me the other day if I think DePodesta will ever be a GM again. My response is that of
course he'll be a GM. If he wants to be one again. Between ownership that didn't support him and the attack dogs in the newspapers, the experience in L.A. wasn't particularly pleasant. But looking back at his tenure objectively, it's clear that DePodesta did a lot more right than wrong. And I'm pretty sure some Important People have noticed.
(H/T to
Baseball Musings.)
Rob Neyer
