Rays' lie not all that bad

Tuesday, March 25, 2008 | Feedback | Print Entry

As you might imagine, Rays fans -- yes, there are some -- aren't real thrilled about the game's No. 1 (or 2) prospect getting sent down. Scott Caruso does a pretty good job of listing their grievances:

I was never shy about my desire to see Evan Longoria begin the year as the Rays third baseman. I feel like he's the best option in the system -- "ready" or not -- and in the effort to put the best possible team on the field, he should be playing at third base on Opening Day.

I can't help but feel we were lied to by the Rays. Though they said prior to Spring Training that he would get a chance to compete for the job, I don't really feel like that's what he was allowed to do. By all accounts -- as in, every single one I've read -- he is the superior player to Willy Aybar. Not only did he play better than Aybar this spring, but his skill-set is clearly superior. All people around the team have indicated that he has the skills needed to succeed at the big league level, and all of his teammates interviewed indicated that the Rays would be a better team with him than without him.

--snip--

With all of that said -- I absolutely understand the decision. Whether or not its best for the long-term success of the franchise is debatable, since I believe that he'll sign a contract long before he gets to that last arbitration year. But why take the chance? He's probably ready to take on big league pitching, but he might not be so why take the chance? It all makes perfect sense to me.

FriedCo. had better hope that the Rays win some ballgames to start this season, though. You can bet that if the team starts in a funk, people are going to be calling for Longoria sooner rather than later. Fans are DESPERATE for a winning team, and putting anything less than the best team possible on the field at this point is unacceptable. If Willy Aybar stumbles and the team doesn't do well, you can bet there will be plenty of backlash -- and plenty of calls to bring up Longoria earlier than the end of May, which would end up making this entire thing fruitless and even more damaging.

Of course Longoria's better than Aybar (though it's worth mentioning, I think, that Aybar's only 25 and he's got a .387 career on-base percentage in 105 major league games).

Of course the Rays lied. Teams lie to their fans weekly, if not daily (Christmas and New Year's are usually lie-free). Baseball teams, like everybody else in the world, tell you whatever they think they can get away with, especially if they think it's something you want to hear. Haven't you been following the primaries? Whichever of the three remaining candidates is your favorite, you have to admit that he/she has told some real whoppers lately (and if you don't believe me, I'm sure a commenter will be happy to provide numerous examples).

Here's the math, roughly speaking. If the Rays leave Longoria in the minors for two months, they might save $4.5 million because he'll be eligible for arbitration after his third season rather than his second. If they leave him in the minors for just two or three weeks, they'll save even more millions because they'll delay his free agency for a whole year. Even if we assume that the Rays will eventually sign Longoria to a long-term contract extension, thus buying out some of arbitration and/or free-agency years, they're still saving money now because he'll have less negotiating leverage.

For me, the bottom line is this: I don't care if my favorite team lies, as long as it's in the service of the franchise's long-term health. And while the Rays look silly now, given how impressive Longoria was this spring, I think it was a lie worth telling. And a month or two from now when Longoria is beginning his late drive for Rookie of the Year, all should be forgiven.

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