Today we continue our series of ranking the best players at each position, with an eye on the next five years ...
Last season there was one great second baseman and a passel of good ones.
Chase Utley was the great one, but aside from him there were 10 everyday second basemen with OPS's between .805 and .875, and worthy candidates
Howie Kendrick and
Ian Kinsler weren't far behind. How to sort through all of them? Well, fair or not, I'm going to summarily dismiss (for the moment) anybody who's 30 or older this season, which eliminates
Jeff Kent (40),
Placido Polanco (32),
Brian Roberts (30) and
Orlando Hudson (30). That still leaves nine candidates.
| Player |
Age |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS+ |
WARP |
| Chase Utley |
29 |
.410 |
.566 |
145 |
9.3 |
| Robinson Cano |
25 |
.353 |
.488 |
120 |
9.2 |
| Kelly Johnson |
26 |
.375 |
.457 |
117 |
6.7 |
| Dustin Pedroia |
24 |
.380 |
.442 |
112 |
5.3 |
| Ian Kinsler |
26 |
.355 |
.441 |
109 |
5.4 |
| Howie Kendrick |
24 |
.347 |
.450 |
108 |
2.0 |
| Dan Uggla |
28 |
.326 |
.479 |
108 |
7.9 |
| Rickie Weeks |
25 |
.374 |
.433 |
108 |
3.5 |
| Brandon Phillips |
27 |
.331 |
.485 |
105 |
7.6 |
That last column is a new one:
WARP, Wins Above Replacement Player, arrives courtesy of Baseball Prospectus and incorporates defensive value (in the form of
Fielding Runs Above Replacement, which I believe is a generally worthy metric). Kendrick and Weeks both drop quite a bit with the inclusion of FRAR, while Uggla and Phillips both move up quite a bit.
The biggest mover, though, is Cano, who's credited with 50 FRAR, a gigantic number for a second baseman. Even if you don't believe he was that good with the glove, he still has to rank as one of the two best second basemen in the majors, right? Considering the
league in which he plays?
For me, the options are clear: If you're looking for a second baseman for the next five years, you must choose Utley's bat or Cano's youth, and all the rest is just fighting over table scraps.
I'll take Cano, because I don't think we've yet seen his best work and because he plays in the toughest division in the toughest league. So here's how I've got them, with (as usual) the last spot held open for the next great second baseman who hasn't established himself yet. Remember, we're talking about value over the next five seasons ...
1. Cano
2. Utley
3. Pedroia
4. Phillips
5. Johnson
6. Kinsler
7. Weeks
8. Kendrick
9. Hudson
10. ????
One could definitely make the case for Roberts instead of Kendrick or Hudson, and maybe even Weeks (because of the latter's poor defense). The real surprise here is Johnson. He got a late start, but his hitting seems to be legitimate and defensively he's better than most. I'm not at all sure he'll have a better career than Weeks or Kendrick, but I do think he'll have a better next five years.
Looking forward to your comments ...
Rob Neyer
