So the Tigers have signed Dontrelle Willis to a three-year contract that will pay him roughly $30 million over the next three seasons. According to (among others) Ian Casselberry at Bless You Boys, this is a good thing.
As Jon Paul Morosi wrote in the Freep, this is a pretty telling sign (perhaps obviously so) that the Tigers believe Willis' numbers (10-15, 5.17 ERA) from last season aren't indicative of his health and talent level. Consider that Willis is going to be only 28 years old by the time this contract runs out. He's plenty young enough to turn this around. Also, had they not locked him up now, the starting rotation risked looking pretty thin after 2009 if both Willis and Nate Robertson hit free agency.
And if Willis doesn't end up working out, the Tigers still signed him to a deal that's below what's become an out-of-control market for starting pitching. Did you see the news on Carlos Silva today? [Four] years for $48 million with the Seattle Mariners? And he won't even be their [No.] 1 starter? $[Fifteen] million for Kenny Rogers and Willis next year doesn't look too bad in comparison.
Perhaps. Here's what
Keith Law said about Willis after the Tigers acquired him:
Willis' stuff hasn't been that overpowering in about two years, and his fastball command was poor for the entire 2007 season. The same aspects of his delivery that give him so much deception also make his delivery hard to repeat and put more stress on his arm. As a result, he's not the same pitcher he was from 2003-'05. He's thrown 200-plus innings for the past three years and may just be a guy who can soak up those innings at a below-average level, which has value but not something that matches his reputation. In the tougher league, he might just be a fifth starter.
Is a fifth starter worth $10 million per season? Well, of course it depends on who the fifth starter is. But while I know the price for starters, even fifth starters, is escalating rapidly, I'm not yet ready to advocate $10 million salaries for below-average starting pitchers.
Will Willis be worse than average in 2008? Optimists like to point out that his 5.17 ERA last season was sort of a fluke, and that fundamentally his performance wasn't much different than 2006, when he posted a 3.87 ERA. True enough. But let's look at those two seasons together, and compare them to the previous two seasons.
In 2004 and '05, Willis' combined ERA was 3.26; in 2006 and '07 it was a combined 4.49.
In '04 and '05 combined, Willis struck out 6.4 batters per nine innings; in '06 and '07 combined he struck out 6.4 batters per nine innings. This, in fact, is the best piece of evidence on Willis' side. Strikeouts are a wonderful indicator, and his strikeout rate was the same in both two-year periods.
Unfortunately that's the only positive indicator.
In 2004 and '05 combined, Willis gave up 31 homers in 433 innings; in '06 and '07 combined he gave up 50 homers in 429 innings.
In '04 and '05 combined, Willis walked 2.4 batters per nine innings; in '06 and '07 combined he walked 3.6 per nine innings. That's a huge difference, and speaks directly to the poor fastball command that Law mentioned. But there's another thing, which is easy to miss and perhaps doesn't mean anything but is so vivid that I think it's worth mentioning ...
In '04 and '05 combined, Willis was charged with 20 hit batters and wild pitches; in '06 and '07 combined the number was 48.
Between the walks and all those other errant pitches, it's clear that Willis just hasn't been able to put the ball where he wants, which of course is the key to the whole enterprise.
As I noted, Willis' ERA over the last two seasons was a combined 4.49. Last season the American League overall ERA was 4.51. The American League is the better league, so it's reasonable to expect that Willis' ERA will be worse than league average in 2008. And while his youth is generally regarded as a good thing, is it really? Pitchers aren't hitters. Plenty of pitchers peak in their early 20s, when their arms are fresh and their fastballs snappy. Willis won 22 games in 2005. He's won 22 games combined in the two seasons since. I'm not sure if he's "young enough to improve" or if he's merely young enough to tease anybody who doesn't believe in scouting reports and statistics.
Rob Neyer
