At least among the cognoscenti, the reviews of the Torii Hunter deal are mixed. Yes, in the short term he does make the Angels a little better. But even granting they have money to burn, is he worth $90 million?
Over at
Halos Heaven they're seeing a glass that's half full:
Basically, the Angels overpay in the outfield for two more seasons [Garret Anderson's] club option is thru '09 and [Gary] Matthews' no trade clause runs thru then as well) BUT they underpay in the infield. Casey Kotchman is the first of the current/projected infielders to be arbitration eligible -- and guess when -- yep, after the 2009 season!
The infield underpayment is severe: Kotchman/Morales at 1B, [Howie] Kendrick at 2B, Brandon Wood at 3B, [Erick] Aybar/[Maicer] Izturis at SS, [Mike] Napoli/[Jeff] Mathis at C all at league minimum for two more seasons and most at league minimum for three or more seasons.
Meanwhile, over at 6-4-2 they're
not so thrilled with Hunter:
Despite his type A ranking by Elias, Hunter's value to the team is rather dubious thanks to his age, multiplied by having a career year in a contract year. PECOTA projected him as a 45 VORP player, and he came in a bit below that at 39.2. Now, four wins is nothing to sneeze at, but he marks the kind of player the Angels really shouldn't be chasing; they need a Hall of Fame caliber bat, and Hunter simply isn't that. As a fix for the outfield, it reaches meh levels, with the usual caveats that Hunter's comps were either out of baseball or ineffective by the time this deal will be over, when Hunter is 36.
By the way, here are
Hunter's top 10 comps. Two caveats: only one of them (
Preston Wilson) was a center fielder, and the system is based purely on raw statistics, with no adjustments for environment. Thus, Hunter's
OPS+ is lower than those of his seven best comps.
Bottom line? Hunter has a contract for five years. In two or three of those five years, he'll probably be worse than a league-average hitter. According to the numbers, he's a good fielder but not a great one. Essentially the Angels have committed $90 million to a league-average player. You liked
Garret Anderson and
Darin Erstad? Then you're going to
love Torii Hunter.
Rob Neyer
