What do you think the Gold Glove voters -- the coaches and the managers -- should do? What's their job?
If you think they're supposed to identify good defensive players, they do a pretty good job. With the occasional exception, Gold Glove winners generally are "plus" fielders. Better than average.
If you think they're supposed to identify
great defensive players, the voters do a pretty lousy job. This year, there are 19 Gold Glove winners. By my count, four of them are truly outstanding defensive players:
Orlando Hudson,
Andruw Jones,
Carlos Beltran, and
Johan Santana.
This year, like every year, one can explain the voting results not by examining all the sophisticated fielding metrics with which we're now blessed. No, if you want to explain the Gold Glove you must turn to the Three Big Biases that show up year after year after year.
For example, the voters love to vote for the guy who won last year.
Greg Maddux has now won his 17th, despite giving up an immense number of stolen bases. Granted, that was a team-wide issue;
Chris Young gave up 44 steals without a single runner being caught. But Maddux has always given up a lot of steals, because he doesn't want to bother with holding runners close. I'm sure that's a defensible tactic, but I'm also sure that should disqualify a pitcher from being considered the
best fielder.
There were only three other repeat winners in the National League: Orlando Hudson, Andruw Jones and Carlos Beltran. No argument with Hudson. It's not clear that he was better than
Chase Utley, but it's not clear that he wasn't. Jones and Beltran were, as usual, among the very best outfielders.
The selection of
Derrek Lee over
Albert Pujols is strange, unless you assume that the voters
wanted to vote for Lee last year but couldn't, because he played only 50 games. Pujols is an outstanding first baseman -- his numbers are off the charts -- but Lee looks like a first baseman and the voters trust their eyes before anything else.
The selections of
Jimmy Rollins and
David Wright are emblematic, I think, of the voters' most obvious Big Bias: for the superstar. Rollins is a good fielder, but he's not great. Now,
Troy Tulowitzki, he had a great year. OK, so he's a rookie and some of the voters have hardly seen him.
Omar Vizquel -- and I can't believe I'm saying this, considering Vizquel's nearly 41 -- would have been a better choice, and
Jose Reyes was solid this season, too. In fact, it's highly likely that if Reyes had been the MVP candidate instead of Rollins, it's Reyes who'd have won the Gold Glove.
Same thing with Wright. He's a good third baseman, and perhaps as good as
Scott Rolen (who'd won seven of the last nine Gold Gloves). But Wright's not nearly as good as
Pedro Feliz and he's probably not as good as
Ryan Zimmerman. Wright's a Gold Glove because he's a good fielder and a
great hitter, which would be fine except the voters are supposed to forget the hitting. Oh, and
Russell Martin benefited from the same bias. He's not real strong against the running game, but otherwise he's solid. Still, if the evidence exists for his superiority to
Yadier Molina, I've not yet seen it.
Aaron Rowand and
Jeff Francouer, who tied for the third spot in the National League outfield, both seem like odd choices. They're fine, probably better than average. But outstanding? One can't help but think that Rowand won because he crashed into a wall last year, and that Francouer won because the voters are impressed with his throwing arm. It wasn't a great year for National League outfielders, once you get past Jones and Beltran, but
Eric Byrnes had a great season in left field, and
Nook Logan -- the epitomy of a guy the voters don't even consider -- was excellent in center (granted, he was not an everyday player).
So we've gone through the National League, and seen two of the Big Biases: for past winners, and for superstars (i.e. great hitters).
The third Big Bias is about fielding percentage. This shows up mostly with shortstops and second basemen, and goes a long way toward explaining how
Placido Polanco won this year. Polanco didn't make many errors this season. Actually, he didn't make
any errors this season. I'm as critical as anybody, but it's hard to fault the voters for rewarding a guy who made zero errors in six months. Realistically, though, does it necessarily follow that Polanco was the
best second baseman? Another top candidate was (or should have been)
Mark Ellis. Ellis, playing roughly 110 more innings than Polanco, recorded 110 more assists than Polanco.
Aaron Hill (14 errors) and
Robinson Cano (13 errors) both made more errors than Polanco, but both also made far, far more
plays than Polanco.
Kevin Youkilis, same thing. In 135 games at first base, he didn't get charged with a single error.
Casey Kotchman was charged with three errors in 130 games. And I can't help but wonder if those numbers were reversed, would Kotchman have won the thing? Is the difference between winning and not winning really just a few plays over the course of the long season? And should it be?
Frankly, the rest of the American League results are sort of a disaster. One can argue that Santana really was the best-fielding pitcher, though with pitchers it's hard to tell. The rest of them, though?
Ivan Rodriguez is clearly is well past his prime, yet won his 13th Gold Glove (repeater).
Adrian Beltre supplanted
Eric Chavez at third base, which points to another phenomenon we've seen before: The voters are often behind the curve. Beltre was outstanding last year, and should have won the award. This year he wasn't as good, and it should have gone to
Brandon Inge.
The voters
finally stopped rewarding
Derek Jeter for being Derek Jeter -- probably because he made a bunch of errors in the spring -- but they picked the wrong replacement.
Orlando Cabrera led the American League in fielding percentage, which happens to be his only credential.
Jason Bartlett, rookie
Tony Pena and especially
John McDonald all were more deserving.
And the outfield? It's another year, which means more awards for
Ichiro and
Torii Hunter. So they win as repeaters, and
Grady Sizemore wins because he was on the cover of Sports Illustrated. It's a shame the voters didn't realize just how well
Coco Crisp and
Curtis Granderson were playing this year.
Rob Neyer
