What might the most important number on Alex Rodriguez's next contract look like?
Well, his agent says A-Rod will play until he's 45 years old. His agent has also suggested that $30 million per season might be an excellent starting point. Let's see ... 14 more seasons at $30 million per season ... that's $420 million, which might seem crazy, except that's been the case with contracts signed by a
lot of
Scott Boras' clients.
Could any player really be worth that much? Darren Rovell was as skeptical as the rest of us ... until
Boras returned Rovell's phone call. Boras is a sharp fellow, of course, and he might have convinced Rovell that Rodriguez really is "worth $500 million to the YES Network over the next 10 years."
Here's how he calculates something like that. Boras says that regional sports networks make two-thirds of their money through subscriptions and one-third of their money from advertising. Given that regional sports networks only have primarily one product, the subscription base and the ratings are extremely volatile, he reasons, meaning that signing a player like A-Rod is essential.
Before A-Rod, the YES Network never did better than a 3.2 rating. Since A-Rod came to the team, the network has seen its ratings rise to a record 4.7 this season. Since no significant position player has been acquired since Rodriguez joined the Yankees in 2004, Boras says he can contribute the ratings rise -- as well as the turnstile rise, by the way -- to his client being on the team.
I think what Rovell meant to say is that Boras can
attribute the ratings rise to Rodriguez's presence.
Which is preposterous.
For one thing, that explanation of the ratings surge is simplistic. As
Andrew Marchand writes for ESPN.com,
It's nearly impossible to quantify the relationship an individual player has to a regional sports network. The ratings for YES -- the Yankees-owned regional sports network in the greater New York area -- have climbed with Rodriguez on the team.
According to numbers provided by YES, ratings in 2003, the year prior to Rodriguez's arrival, were 3.2 for the season. In 2004 and 2005 -- Rodriguez's first two seasons -- the ratings jumped to 4.6 and 4.5 respectively.
In 2006, YES ratings dipped to 4.3, but this season the numbers peaked at 4.7. There are countless factors for these ratings, including having marquee players. Rodriguez, of course, is not the only star on the Yankees.
Indeed, he's not. There's
Mo, and
the Rocket, and of course there's always
Cap'n Jetes, everybody's favorite Yankee. But still, there's that sudden jump in the ratings from 2003 to 2004; the ratings were 3.2 B.A.R. (Before A-Rod) and have averaged 4.5 since then. So what changed in 2004?
1. Alex Rodriguez joined the Yankees.
2. Gary Sheffield joined the Yankees.
3. Javier Vazquez joined the Yankees.
4. Kevin Brown joined the Yankees.
5. C.J. Nitkowski joined the Yankees.
At least four of those were big news, and we know that big news will goose ratings and attendance. The Yankees also were defending their American League pennant in 2004, which presumably added a bit of buzz. All things considered, though: Yes, if we must attribute the big ratings boost in 2004 to personnel changes, Mr. Rodriguez is No. 1 on the list.
Except there's no reason for us to attribute anything at all to personnel changes.
In 2002, the first year of YES, the network was not available, at all, to the three million New York-area Cablevision customers. In 2003, YES was available for $1.95 per month, and roughly 1.5 million customers signed up. In 2004 -- and ever since -- YES was carried on Cablevision's "expanded basic tier," which added roughly one million customers.
Wouldn't
Occam's Razor suggest that adding a million households is the
best explanation for higher ratings? Do we really need to look for any other reasons?
Still, let's assume for the moment that the arrival of Alex Rodriguez really did contribute to higher ratings. It's possible that he accounted for ... oh, let's say 20 percent of the ratings increase. Does it necessarily follow that if he leaves the ratings will drop by 20 percent? Or even two percent? Of course it doesn't. I would argue that most of his
wow value is gone in New York, now that he's been a Yankee for a few years.
Very few fans will stop watching the Yankees if somebody else is playing third base in 2008 (assuming, of course that the Yankees continue their winning ways). If anything, it seems to me, Rodriguez would be most valuable to another team, one looking for an immediate boost in fan interest.
Ah, but that wouldn't do Scott Boras any good, because if Boras gets the $400 million contract he would like, he's going to get it from just one team: the Yankees. As I've written before, the men who run the franchise aren't foolish enough to believe Boras' propaganda. But all his disinformation is not designed to fool
Brian Cashman and
George Steinbrenner's sons (who are, at this point, running the show). It's supposed to fool New York's columnists, sports-radio hosts, and baseball fans.
Don't worry, though: As long as Boras doesn't return your phone call -- or look directly into your eyes -- you should be safe.
Rob Neyer
