Terry Ryan is out as Twins GM, and Bill Smith is in. It's been a rough season for the Twins, but I'm here to help. Ready?
Step 1: Trade
Johan Santana. No, it can't happen today and doesn't need to happen before next April. But Santana's going to be worth upwards of $20 million per season on the open market, and we shouldn't be shocked by $25 million; say, $150 million for six years.
The Twins' payroll this season was roughly $72 million. They'll increase that number steadily, and might be in the neighborhood of $100 million in 2010, when they're supposed to move into
their new ballpark. Does it really make sense to spend 25 percent of the payroll on one player, however excellent? And a pitcher, no less?
Yes, they could hold on to Santana next season, pay him $13.25 million, and take the draft picks when he signs with somebody else. These days, maybe that makes sense, because maybe there aren't any lopsided deals
like this still to be made.
There is
good reason to be optimistic about the Twins' pitching. Even in the absence of
Joe Nathan -- who should also be traded before he gets too expensive -- the bullpen will feature
Matt Guerrier and
blogger extraordinaire Pat Neshek. Even in the absence of Santana, the rotation will/could feature
Boof Bonser,
Matt Garza,
Scott Baker,
Francisco Liriano and
Kevin Slowey. Liriano was sensational in 2006, and will be coming back from a surgery that lately has become fairly routine. At 23 this season, Slowey led the Triple-A International League with a 1.89 ERA. I'm not saying there's a future Cy Young in that bunch. But those five guys are a solid foundation for a rotation that's both young and cheap.
And cheap is important, because the Twins need to buy some hitting. The Twins have two good hitters:
Joe Mauer and
Justin Morneau, and Mauer can't seem to stay in the lineup.
Nick Punto is
historically bad. The Twins have four players -- four! -- with more than five home runs this season. That's just not a championship quality attack, and there's no help on the way from the minors. The Twins are going to have to buy hitting or trade for it. Or both. They can trade Santana for hitting
and use the money they're not paying him on hitting.
Prediction: If the Twins trade Santana, the local writers will claim they're not trying to win. But if the Twins really are trying to win -- or rather, if ownership and the new general manager
know how to win -- they'll make dealing their most valuable commodity their highest priority.
Rob Neyer
