I've never heard of "Epic Carnival" until today, but I enjoyed their take on the MLB awards (tip of the cap to Ballhype).
Employing 14 writers/voters, they came up with these winners:
AL MVP:
Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP:
Matt Holliday
AL CY:
Dan Haren
NL CY:
Jake Peavy
As they point out, the surprising name here is Holliday's. Here's how the voting went (number in parentheses indicates first-place votes):
Holliday (6)
Prince Fielder (1)
Hanley Ramirez (2)
Chase Utley (2)
David Wright (0)
Ryan Howard (1)
Ryan Braun (1)
Albert Pujols (0)
Carnival's follow-up:
The NL MVP vote is absolutely wide open. Holliday is having a great year (.339/.401/.585, 21 HR, 93 RBI), but not really that much better than last year (.326/.34/114), when he finished 15th in the voting. He probably has a shot if the Rockies sneak into the playoffs. Of course, there's a chance I'm just misjudging the whole thing, as he obviously got a ton of support in our voting.
It seems to me that Prince probably has the inside track. He has the numbers (36 HR, 88 RBIs), he's relatively well known, and the Brewers have had a good year. If the Brewers take the Central, I think the award is his to lose.
Chase Utley (.336/.414/.581, 82 RBI, plus excellent defense) was in great shape before breaking his hand. As great as Hanley Ramirez has been (.341/.393/.574, 37 SB), I feel like most of the BBWAA writers wouldn't recognize him if he walked by.
Holliday has absolutely zero chance if the Rockies don't make the playoffs. Not making the playoffs is a big problem for any MVP candidate, but particularly for an MVP candidate who plays half his games in Colorado. I know the Coors Effect isn't what it once was, but it's still worth noticing that Holliday's hitting .378 at Coors and .298 elsewhere. So Holliday really isn't a serious candidate, nor is Utley.
I don't consider Braun legitimate, either. If the Brewers do make the playoffs, the voters will prefer Fielder unless something truly dramatic happens in September. If the Phillies make the playoffs, Howard has a good chance to win his second straight MVP; he currently leads the league in RBIs, and you know the voters love their RBIs. However, if neither the Brewers nor the Phillies make the playoffs, the MVP really is "absolutely wide open."
I'd like to think the voters might actually consider Ramirez or even
Miguel Cabrera, who have been the two best hitters in the National League this season (considering their fielding positions). Which I suppose means neither of them has any chance at all, because as Marlins teammates they'll split the progressive vote. Which means, in turn, that if you want to know who's going to actually win the award, you should probably just look at the standings at the end of the season.
Rob Neyer
