I hope you'll pardon me for not being particularly excited about next week's draft. Oh, I'm sure I'll watch next Thursday; for the first time, it's being televised (on ESPN2). I just can't get worked up over a group of players when I know most of them won't make more than a ripple in the major leagues.
That said, I know a lot of you care a great deal about the draft, and I can't imagine a better primer -- by the way, that word rhymes with "dimmer" -- than this Baseball Analysts roundtable, featuring three of Baseball America's top draftniks. Just a quick flavor, from our pal Jim Callis:
It does seem like there's talk every year about how the talent is down, but I don't think that's because guys are trying to drive prices down. With slotting, we already know what the majority of guys are going to get before they get picked. I think that talk comes more because some of the veteran scouts think of the days of old, when football and basketball (and skateboarding and whatever other sports you want to throw out there) didn't siphon away as many athletes. Also, teams weren't as emphatic about signing as many of the top athletes and arms out of high school every year, so the college crops (particularly in the 1980s) were a lot stronger. These days, a lot of those kids sign out of high school, and the college crops don't seem as strong. Despite that talk, most drafts produce a similar amount of talent. Some years it's less apparent than other, such as in 2000 when the first round was pretty bleak but guys like Brandon Webb and Dontrelle Willis were around in the eighth round. The talent is there -- it's up to the teams to find out where it is.
Later, there's a great deal of discussion about the various first-round talents, which I suppose is what most of you want to read about. These guys know their stuff, cold.
Rob Neyer
