The Rangers' decision to extend Michael Young's contract two full seasons before he's eligible for free agency is a real head-scratcher. Not only was the timing odd, but the decision to commit so much money for so many years to Young is the wrong move for this franchise.
First off, the Rangers had no reason to commit to Young this early. He already was under contract for 2007, with a team option for 2008. If the Rangers believe this winter's sudden escalation in player salaries is a harbinger of a bull market to come, that risk is more than outweighed by the risk that Young will start to decline in the next two years, information that could have pushed his salary demands down or given the Rangers enough pause that they'd choose not to sign him. If waiting until next winter to sign Young meant he'd cost them a bit more because he was more inclined to test the market, that slight premium was just the cost of the insurance that he didn't go backward as a player during the season.
Second, Young isn't worth this kind of financial commitment. Sure, he's the heart and soul -- or blood and guts -- of the Rangers, but when it comes to the stuff that wins ballgames, Young isn't a $15 million player now and certainly won't be one in this deal's out years. The deal will cost the Rangers $80 million (some of which is deferred) over five years beginning in 2009, meaning it covers Young's age 33-37 seasons, a time when most hitters already are declining. His defense ticked up to fringe-average in 2006, but it had been awful before that. Since defensive ability doesn't get better as a player moves into his 30s, there's a very good chance Young finishes this contract at another position, one where he'll be a lot less valuable. He's a plus hitter for average, but doesn't hit for power and has never been a patient hitter. He's the type of player who's fine if he hits .320 but hurts you if he's hitting .280, which is where he'll be by 2009 or 2010.
And finally, there is the question of whether the Rangers should be committing this kind of money to any player currently on their roster. Their Opening Day payroll for 2006 was just $68 million, and even if that bumps up to the $80-90 million range, the Rangers are going to need to keep a lot of that payroll flexible to remain competitive over the next three to five years, Their best player, Mark Teixeira, hits free agency after 2008, and as a Scott Boras client, he won't come cheaply even if he wants to stay in Texas. Their rotation isn't strong now, with only one major pitching prospect (Eric Hurley) in the system. To improve the rotation, they'll have to import pitchers from the outside, usually a very expensive proposition. Third baseman Hank Blalock had offseason shoulder surgery and has regressed the last two seasons, they have no long-term centerfielder, and the other positions are manned by complementary players. With 20 percent or so of their payroll committed to a non-superstar hitter -- plus the $7-8 million a year they're still paying A-Rod -- they're going to find it difficult to contend (even in a weak division) if they can't spend the money to acquire better pitching.
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Keith Law
