FSU Seminoles

ESPN is examining each of the nation's top college football programs and projecting what the next few seasons might have in store. We've accounted for Florida State's coaching, talent, recruiting, stability and program clout to find out how the Seminoles stack up, with ESPN's experts ranking FSU seventh in their Future Power Rankings.

Here's a quick look at what could change those numbers, for better and for worse:


The Seminoles will rise if: Jameis Winston develops into a star.

For Florida State's redshirt freshman, the expectations are already so high that he might never fully reach them, but that's not the standard he should be worried about. When E.J. Manuel made an early push for the Heisman a year ago, Jimbo Fisher famously referred to his quarterback as a "hunting dog" rather than a "show dog," and that's exactly what he'll want from Winston, too.

But while Manuel arrived with an impressive track record and lofty expectations, too, there is something different about Winston, who is already being pegged by some as a future No. 1 overall draft pick. He's got a big arm, good speed and tremendous confidence that sets him apart.

For all his talent, Winston still needs some time to develop on the job, and Fisher's offense isn't designed to allow him to post huge numbers from Day 1. For FSU, the key is for Winston to keep moving forward, and if he does, the next three years could be a turning point for the program.

A lot of other things will have to fall into place, too, if FSU is to take the next step, but Winston will be at the forefront for good reason. After all, in the Seminoles' two previous national championship seasons, they had eventual Heisman winners Charlie Ward and Chris Weinke running the show.

The Seminoles will fall if: The stability Fisher has built falls apart.

There are more than a few fans eager to point out the flaws in Fisher's first three years on the job, and indeed, ugly losses to teams such as Wake Forest and Virginia in 2011 and NC State in 2012 derailed otherwise promising seasons. But while Fisher hasn't quite fulfilled mammoth expectations, he has managed a major overhaul of the organization by implementing a strict plan for recruiting, coaching and running the program.

Essentially Fisher has tried to follow in Nick Saban's footsteps by not simply coaching the Xs and Os, but working to refine even the most minor aspects of the program. But 2013 brings the first major challenge to that routine, with six new assistant coaches joining the ranks, the departure of a vast amount of NFL talent (11 players picked in 2013's draft), an increasingly arduous schedule on the horizon and a search for a new athletics director looming.

For three years, Fisher has been the captain of a relatively stable ship, but new challenges have arisen. Fisher went outside the box with his hiring of new defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt. His refusal to give up play-calling duties led his offensive coordinator and top recruiter, James Coley, to bolt for ACC rival Miami. He faces recruiting challenges from SEC programs with more resources in a time when FSU is trying to find a new leader for its athletics department. Whether Fisher can keep the program on the right path and follow Saban's blueprint for building a champion will be a major question during the next few seasons.

Throughout the summer, NoleNation will be counting down the 40 players we're projecting to make the biggest impact on the Seminoles' 2013 season, taking into consideration everything from experience to potential to their spot on the current depth chart.

Next up: No. 34 Reggie Northrup
Position/class: Linebacker/sophomore

What he's done: Northrup's freshman season offered only a brief glimpse at his potential, but it nevertheless made an impact. He had just 10 tackles, but in a rare bit of extended playing time in the second half of FSU's win over Boston College, Northrup put on a clinic. In only a handful of series, Northrup tallied six tackles, including four solo tackles and one for a loss. The performance largely came against Boston College's second team, and the Seminoles were well ahead, but Northrup's prolific outing turned heads and moved him to the top of a deep well of inexperienced linebackers.

Where he's at: Northrup saw plenty of action last season on special teams and garnered praise as one of FSU's hardest hitters, but he's in a position in 2013 to expand on that role by refining his skill set. Even during his brilliant outing against Boston College, Northrup was hardly putting on a clinic for well-coached technique. Instead, he's spent this spring developing a better understanding of his role rather than relying on his immense natural ability. He'll open fall camp as the No. 2 weakside linebacker, and he'll get the chance to learn behind a potential NFL first-rounder in Christian Jones.

What's to come: As mentioned in discussions of Terrance Smith, Freddie Stevenson and Markuss Eligwe, there are plenty of young, inexperienced talent at linebacker for FSU, but there are relatively few snaps to be shared by them in 2013. Jones and Telvin Smith are the veterans, and they'll be on the field a lot. The strongside linebacker position faces an increasingly diminished role in FSU's defense. That means as many as nine reserve linebackers will be fighting for what's left. Northrup isn't guaranteed a lion's share of those scraps, but for now he appears to be in the best position to win them. And if he can add some more substantive experience in 2013, he could be amassing games similar to that Boston College performance with regularity in 2014.

Danny Kanell counts down his top five newcomers who could be breakout players.