Commentary

Wolverines, Aggies on upset alert

Identifying likely upsets and picking winners for Week 6's biggest games

Updated: October 6, 2011, 1:19 PM ET
By Will Harris | ESPN Insider
Ryan Tannehill/Denard RobinsonUS PresswireQuarterbacks Ryan Tannehill and Denard Robinson could both be upset victims on the road.

Every week during the season, Will Harris will conspire with the computers (using TeamRankings' game predictor) and the wiseguys to evaluate the upset possibilities in college football's most compelling games -- and give his picks for who'll come out on top.

Three teams fell out of the Associated Press Top 25 rankings last week -- the South Florida Bulls, Baylor Bears and TCU Horned Frogs -- while five more lost their games but remained ranked. Upset Watch forecast Baylor's tough day in Manhattan, Kan., along with Illinois' struggles, Wisconsin's big win and the Tide's draining of The Swamp.

A 6-2 week moved us to 25-14 against the spread on the season. This week we go back to the well with a pair of purple Wildcats as we preview the week's big games.

Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks

Arkansas is favored by 10 points
TeamRankings win odds for Auburn: 36 percent

Auburn's win in Columbia, S.C., was a reminder that there's a floor on how far the Tigers can fall after losing 16 starters, including the team's showcase stars, but don't let it deceive you into thinking that this is not a rebuilding year. Gus Malzahn's effective use of his skill players will keep Auburn in some games, but the young offensive line won't hold up all season, and the defense is a liability every week. Auburn is game and will be well-prepared again this week, but this is a five-loss team.

The Razorbacks' defense has suffered some injuries and is a poor tackling unit by SEC standards, but it is improving, and the offense can more than pick up the slack in the meantime. Quarterback Tyler Wilson's play has built confidence in the whole unit, and although the Hogs are trying to find an identity in the running game, Wilson and his uber-talented receiving corps will be enough to secure wins against the defenses on the October schedule.

The pick: Arkansas 45, Auburn 28