Odds for contenders to win out
Ranking undefeated and one-loss teams by likelihood they run the table
Eight Football Bowl Subdivision teams currently remain undefeated, including six from the major AQ conferences. Dominating performances over the weekend from Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Ohio State have positioned all four atop the current BCS standings and the polls. Baylor and Miami aren't far behind. Fresno State and Northern Illinois are positioned to crash a BCS bowl from the non-AQ ranks.
How likely are we to have a glut of undefeated teams at the end of the season? Not particularly. BCS chaos has been a common refrain over the years, but it is too early to fret over how many undefeated teams are still hanging around at the end of October. Some of the biggest games of the regular season lie in the weeks ahead, and many of the biggest BCS shakeups over the years have traditionally come in November.
That said, we have reached the tipping point in the regular season when teams currently positioned at the top of the BCS standings are more likely than not to stay there. According to our latest FEI ratings, three AQ conference teams have a better than 50 percent chance of remaining undefeated this year.
All eight current undefeated teams are ranked below according to the likelihood they will remain undefeated. At the end, we also break down the win-out likelihoods for the current one-loss contenders.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)
Odds of winning out: 54.2 percent
To read Brian Fremeau's full ranking of the undefeated and one-loss contenders most likely to win their remaining games, sign up for Insider today.
Brian FremeauESPN Insider
• Creator of the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), a measure of college football team efficiency
• Contributor to Football Outsiders and his own site, bcftoys.com
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Which one-loss playoff contenders are likeliest to run the table? Nebraska leads the way to the playoff.