Projecting the second half
Who will have best records at season's end? We look at Bama, Oregon, more
The first BCS standings of the 2013 season will be released on Sunday, and many of the teams expected to appear at the top of those standings were predicted to be in the hunt from the start of the year. Alabama, Oregon and Ohio State have been mainstays in the top five of the Associated Press poll since the preseason rankings were released in August. Louisville, Texas A&M, Florida State, LSU and Clemson have all been highly regarded since then as well.
A handful of upsets this past weekend knocked Stanford, Oklahoma and Michigan from the undefeated ranks, making room for the likes of Miami, UCLA and Baylor to move into contention. Missouri's big win at Georgia positions the Tigers to be in the BCS mix as well.
We ran projections for the remainder of the year based on our current FEI ratings, a drive-based, opponent-adjusted college rating system. As important as the standings this weekend may be, we wanted to see which teams would be expected to hold their position and move up as the season wears on. We calculated expected regular-season records based on individual game win likelihoods at two stages down the stretch.
Here's what the standings project to look like at the three-quarter mark and at the conclusion of the regular season.
To read Brian Fremeau's entire story on which teams have the best likelihood of finishing the season at the top of the standings and reaching the BCS title game, sign up for Insider today.
Brian FremeauESPN Insider
• Creator of the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), a measure of college football team efficiency
• Contributor to Football Outsiders and his own site, bcftoys.com
College Football on Insider
Todd McShay breaks down the top NFL prospects at the Senior Bowl. Read »