Teams with rising win projections

Washington, Michigan, NIU, Fresno and LSU are trending up after Week 1

Updated: September 3, 2013, 1:11 PM ET
By Brian Fremeau | ESPN Insider

Steve SarkisianAP Photo/Ted S. WarrenSteve Sarkisian and the Huskies impressed in their 38-6 rout of No. 19 Boise State on Saturday.

The first weekend of the college football season featured a handful of top matchups, but most of the action took place between power programs and relatively weaker opponents. The only major surprises were provided by the eight FCS teams that pulled upsets against FBS foes, and for the most part, the Top 25 held serve.

The polls ultimately reward winning, but the manner in which some teams won over the weekend provides valuable information for our FEI projection model for the rest of the year. FEI ratings are a measure of opponent-adjusted drive efficiency. For the following five teams, wins on Saturday (and struggles by some of their future opponents) set the stage for a leap forward in projected wins in 2013.

In short, these are teams that have the potential to end up being a lot better than we originally thought.


Washington Huskies

Preseason projected wins: 6.5
Updated projected wins: 7.8

The Huskies dismantled Boise State in one of the weekend's big surprises. Washington was favored, but the Broncos have been so consistently competitive of late that a blowout victory didn't seem possible. Washington jumped up 14 spots in our FEI ratings, and its win projection leap of 1.3 games topped all other teams.

Brian Fremeau

ESPN Insider
• Has been a contributor to ESPN Insider and ESPN The Magazine since 2009
• Creator of the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), a measure of college football team efficiency
• Contributor to Football Outsiders and his own site, bcftoys.com