Projected Big 12 standings

Texas, Oklahoma State enter as big favorites to win conference title

Updated: May 7, 2013, 2:02 PM ET
By Brian Fremeau | Football Outsiders
David AshAP Photo/Reed HoffmannQuarterback David Ash is one of 19 returning starters for the Longhorns in 2013.

Spring practices have wrapped up across the country, and there's not much more data we can pull into our projection model for the fall. At Football Outsiders, factors such as five-year program ratings, returning starters, quarterback reliance and more have featured into the projections. We'll publish final projections based on play and drive efficiency in the Football Outsiders Almanac later this summer, but we can take a sneak peak at preliminary projections through the lens of our drive-based FEI ratings.

For this series, we first ran preliminary projections for team, offense and defensive efficiency. Then we calculated win likelihoods in each scheduled game, producing a projected record and win total range. Running the win likelihoods through 1,000 simulated seasons, we then calculated the frequency with which each team claimed a conference crown.

Today we're looking at the projections for the Big 12, which has seen two teams emerge as big favorites to win the league title.

1. Texas Longhorns

Projected finish: 10-2
Win total range: 8-4 to 12-0
Chance to win Big 12: 39 percent

A BCS championship game appearance against Alabama at the end of the 2009 season feels like a lifetime ago, but our projection model likes the Longhorns' chances at reclaiming the conference crown. With 19 returning starters, a strong program history, and top-five talent on the roster, Texas has everything it needs on paper. The schedule is friendly as well -- an Oct. 26 game at TCU is the only true road game against another projected Big 12 contender.


To read Brian Fremeau's complete projection for the Big 12, including win ranges and conference title odds for every team, you must be an ESPN Insider.

Brian Fremeau

ESPN Insider
• Has been a contributor to ESPN Insider and ESPN The Magazine since 2009
• Creator of the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), a measure of college football team efficiency
• Contributor to Football Outsiders and his own site, bcftoys.com