(BCS/4)+8x=W

IN CASE YOU slept through algebra, allow us to explain our BCS equation. (Not to be confused with those confounded computers.) First, we enlisted the metrics* of Insider Brian Fremeau to predict the likelihood of each bowl's point outcomes and final score. Then Insider KC Joyner consulted the stats to derive eight X-factors, players who could alter even the best-laid projections.

*Fremeau created statistical profiles of the two teams in each bowl game and used these profiles to find the 100 most similar matchups from FBS contests since 2007. Then, based on the outcomes of those 100 matchups for each bowl, he created his projections.

To find out the teams our numbers project to win each BCS bowl, you must be an ESPN Insider.

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KC Joyner

NFL Insider

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• NFL and CFB analyst for ESPN Insider
• Known as "The Football Scientist"
• Uses proprietary metrics from game tape study