(BCS/4)+8x=W

We did the math to project the BCS bowl winners

Originally Published: December 13, 2012
By Brian Fremeau and KC Joyner | ESPN The Magazine
James WhiteJeff Hanisch/US PresswireWisconsin's James White will be an X-factor in relief of Montee Ball against Stanford's stiff run D.

IN CASE YOU slept through algebra, allow us to explain our BCS equation. (Not to be confused with those confounded computers.) First, we enlisted the metrics* of Insider Brian Fremeau to predict the likelihood of each bowl's point outcomes and final score. Then Insider KC Joyner consulted the stats to derive eight X-factors, players who could alter even the best-laid projections.

*Fremeau created statistical profiles of the two teams in each bowl game and used these profiles to find the 100 most similar matchups from FBS contests since 2007. Then, based on the outcomes of those 100 matchups for each bowl, he created his projections.


To find out the teams our numbers project to win each BCS bowl, you must be an ESPN Insider.

Brian Fremeau

ESPN Insider
• Has been a contributor to ESPN Insider and ESPN The Magazine since 2009
• Creator of the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), a measure of college football team efficiency
• Contributor to Football Outsiders and his own site, bcftoys.com