Heisman Predictor: It's Manziel

Why the numbers say that Johnny Football will take home the Heisman

Updated: December 4, 2012, 11:22 AM ET
By Ryan McCrystal | ESPN Insider
Johnny ManzielJohn David Mercer/US PresswireThe numbers say that Johnny Manziel will win the Heisman on Saturday.

Just 12 games into his career, Texas A&M Aggies star freshman Johnny Manziel's name is already all over the record books. And Saturday, the legend of Johnny Football will reach unprecedented heights.

While the Heisman Predictor expects a close finish (Manziel leads by only 1.5 points), he is expected to hang on for a tight victory over Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Collin Klein to become the first freshman to hoist the trophy.

Manziel's impending victory sheds some light on what the current crop of voters truly cares about in the Heisman race. Prior to Kansas State's loss against the Baylor Bears, Klein was the runaway favorite and probably would have won this race by a significant margin had the Wildcats run the table. In fact, if we enter Klein's stats into the Predictor's formula with a perfect record, he comes out 17.5 points ahead of Manziel -- enough for a guaranteed victory, probably by one of the widest margins in the history of the award.

So what does this tell us about the Heisman voters?