Florida, Oklahoma on upset watch

Evaluating upset odds and making picks for Week 9's biggest games

Updated: October 25, 2012, 6:03 PM ET
By Will Harris | ESPN Insider
Jeff Driskel/Landry JonesUS PresswireJeff Driskel's Gators and Landry Jones' Sooners may both fall in Week 9.

Every week during the season, Will Harris will check with the computers (using Insider's PickCenter) and wiseguys to evaluate the upset possibilities in college football's most compelling games and give his picks for who will come out on top.

Eleven undefeated teams remain, but that will change soon since two are underdogs in Week 9 and six more are favorites by just a touchdown or less.

Upset Watch had been 13-7 in SEC games prior to missing all three in the conference last week, but a 7-0 slate elsewhere -- which included outright wins from Toledo and Duke -- produced another 7-3 week and moved us to 47-32 on the year. Among last week's SEC misses was the thought that Tennessee might put up a four-quarter fight against Alabama (the Tide rolled 44-13).

In Week 9, we'll look at what a visit from unbeaten Florida holds for Georgia, whether we're willing to credit Landry Jones' recent hot streak for Oklahoma, and whether we're ready to climb on the Florida bandwagon.

Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs (in Jacksonville, Fla.)

Florida is favored by seven points
TeamRankings win odds for Georgia: 31 percent

Momentum and belief have carried an overachieving Gators outfit a long way and will take them all the way to Atlanta if they can win their 19th Cocktail Party in the past 23 tries. On the surface, the Gators have piled up four impressive SEC wins. In reality, no team in the conference save Vanderbilt has shown up to play Florida with anything approaching its average effort.

This week's price indicates that some Gator doubters were converted last week. A touchdown on a neutral field is a big step up from the numbers of previous weeks (last week, Florida was favored by 3.5 points at home versus South Carolina). We're still not sold, and we still see a lot of what's fueling this team as unsustainable. And while we love the impact offensive coordinator Brent Pease has made, the Gators are going to need more than what they've been getting offensively to keep that zero in the loss column. The tailback numbers have been in steady decline as opposing defenses have more film to work with, and not every foe will slurp up QB Jeff Driskel's ball fakes the way Vanderbilt did.