Five teams projected to decline

Bill Snyder asks: Can his Kansas State Wildcats repeat their close-game magic of 2011? Tim Heitman/US Presswire

Each offseason, analysts and fans survey teams across college football and try to identify which ones are in position to take a step forward or backward from the previous year.

Most of the time, these decisions are based on personnel. Typically, the teams with most of their starters returning are expected to improve, and the teams with significant departures are expected to take a step back.

While the personnel side of it can't be ignored, here's an attempt to use statistics to find the teams that benefited from good fortune in 2011 -- the type of fortune that seems unlikely to be repeated.

For these five teams, it might take significant improvement in other statistical areas to be able to match last season's win totals.

Kansas State Wildcats

2011 record: 10-3