Bowl game upset picks

Every week during the season, Will Harris conspires with the computers (using TeamRankings' game predictor) and the wiseguys to evaluate the upset possibilities in college football's most compelling games and give his picks for who'll come out on top.

Upset Picks finished one game over .500 against the spread this season, and now we turn our attention to the bowls. We'll break down all the matchups in stages as we go through the postseason, looking for mismatches and live dogs.

Below is a breakdown for bowl games Dec. 30-31.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: Brigham Young Cougars vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane, Dec. 30

BYU is favored by 1 point
TeamRankings win odds for Tulsa: 47 percent
Watch | Pick Center analysis

Tulsa boasts an impressive resume for an 8-4 team, with losses only to top-10 outfits Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Boise State and Houston. The development of quarterback G.J. Kinne and a veteran offensive line helped the Golden Hurricane overcome a lack of experienced skill position players. There are no impressive wins on this team's sheepskin, but most of them were blowouts and there's no shame in any of the losses.

BYU has a similar resume, with losses to the three best teams on its slate accompanying a host of lopsided victories over weak opponents. The Cougars aren't as explosive as Tulsa, but this BYU defense is easily the best the Hurricane has faced outside of its quartet of highly ranked foes. Seventh-year BYU boss Bronco Mendenhall is an accomplished bowl coach, and his edge in postseason experience over Tulsa rookie Bill Blankenship could be the decisive advantage in this evenly matched affair.

The pick: BYU 31, Tulsa 28

To see the rest of Will Harris' bowl picks, sign up for ESPN Insider.

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