Commentary

Upset odds for league title games

LSU-Georgia, Wisconsin-Michigan State and other conference championship picks

Updated: December 3, 2011, 8:37 AM ET
By Will Harris | ESPN Insider
Aaron Murray/Case Keenum US PresswireAaron Murray and Case Keenum are both vying for conference championships.

Every week during the season, Will Harris will conspire with the computers (using TeamRankings' game predictor) and the wiseguys to evaluate the upset possibilities in college football's most compelling games and give his picks for who'll come out on top.

Thanksgiving restored sanity to the standings, as there were were no upsets in the Top 25 in Week 13, though six ranked teams -- Arkansas, Clemson, Penn State, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Auburn -- lost as underdogs. Upset Picks navigated the chaos of Week 12 with a 7-1 mark but went just 3-8 against an expanded holiday slate last week to fall back to .500 at 52-52 on the year.

This week we bring you all six conference championship games and a pair of Big 12 matchups.

LSU Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs

LSU is favored by 13.5 points
TeamRankings win odds for Georgia: 20 percent

Georgia is markedly better on both sides of the ball than it was last season, and the numbers plainly bear that out. The Bulldogs have outgained every opponent except the Boise State Broncos, and they have outgained the six foes common to LSU's schedule by just 62 fewer yards than the Tigers. The normally solid Georgia special teams, however, are at a big disadvantage here.

Also, while Georgia's defense can keep the underdogs in the game, the offense will be hard-pressed to protect quarterback Aaron Murray or to generate much on the ground. The Bulldogs are thin at tailback, and the pass protection has been shaky all season. The Georgia starters stack up pretty well, but LSU has far better overall depth, and these two areas are the most glaring.