Commentary

The Heisman's photo finish

Trent Richardson still leads, but the top spot remains up for grabs in the final week

Updated: November 29, 2011, 9:37 AM ET
By Ryan McCrystal | ESPN Insider
Robert GriffinAP Photo/Tony GutierrezIf Robert Griffin has to take a knee this weekend due to injury, finishing No. 1 will be tough.

One of the closest Heisman races in recent memory has come down to the final weekend. Unfortunately, two of the top three candidates are already in the clubhouse, while a third may be sidelined by injury.

Alabama Crimson Tide running back Trent Richardson maintains the top spot in the Heisman Predictor, clinging to a narrow lead over Robert Griffin III of the Baylor Bears. And given Griffin's uncertain status for Baylor's upcoming game against the Texas Longhorns, it's possible that Richardson's lead will hold.

Should Richardson finish atop the Predictor, his 124.5 points would be the lowest winning total in the nine years of data used to develop the current formula, eclipsing the previous low mark set by Jason White in 2003 (126 points).

If Griffin does play, however, there are two scenarios in which he could catch Richardson. The easiest way for him to secure the top spot would be to lead Baylor to a win and score at least one touchdown, giving him a minimum of two Predictor points.

Even if Baylor loses, Griffin could still make up the difference by scoring at least four touchdowns. In other words, voters will forgive a loss as long as Griffin performs up the standard he has set for himself.

What about Luck?