Introducing the 2011 Eliminator

Let's start with an admission: The Auburn Tigers broke our model last season.

As we tracked the BCS conference races and BCS title race based on the statistical benchmarks set by past champions, we pointed out frequently how the Tigers' defense simply didn't measure up.

Not only were they allowing more points per game than any SEC or BCS champion of the past several years (and by quite a significant margin, we might add; Auburn allowed twice as many points as Alabama's 2009 squad did, for example), but also their passer rating allowed was 23 points worse than any other past SEC and national champ.

We can't say exactly how Auburn was able to overcome these weaknesses (although Cam Newton probably had something to do with it), but one of our takeaways at season's end -- after the Tigers knocked off Eliminator favorite Oregon -- was to begin tracking contenders against not only the benchmark met by all past champs, but also the average numbers of all of the past winners.

There are two reasons for the addition:

1.) It helps us better account for the inclusion of outlier champs in certain categories (like Auburn on defense).

2.) It helps us better evaluate the conference races in which the numbers are lower across the board.

We'll still be tracking the races based on the benchmarks, as we've done before, but now we'll be able to further differentiate between two teams that clear the same category or categories. We've got some new stats to track this season, as well, having once again run a correlation analysis to identify the stat categories that matter most when it comes to being successful in college football.

Here are the stats, benchmarks and teams to watch for each race this season (note: most stats incorporate the champs of the past seven seasons, while some reflect only the past five seasons):

BCS title