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Insider

SEC on Week 1 upset alert

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

So just how many SEC teams will play in the inaugural College Football Playoff? The conference utterly dominated the top of the BCS standings over the past decade and claimed seven of the last eight national titles. Eight SEC teams were voted into the preseason Associated Press Top 25; five among the top 15.

According to our Football Outsiders projections, six SEC teams have at least a 5 percent likelihood to reach the playoff: Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, LSU, South Carolina and Texas A&M. No other conference has more than three teams with odds that high. In fact, our projections show an 81 percent likelihood that at least one SEC team will reach the playoff, outpacing the ACC (78 percent), Pac-12 (61), Big 12 (45) and Big Ten (45).

But there is still a 19 percent chance the SEC will be shut out of the CFP in 2014. Inconceivable? Perceptions will shift quickly if the league doesn't dominate its nonconference opponents. And our numbers indicate that five SEC teams have to be particularly wary of an upset this week, starting Thursday with Boise State versus Ole Miss at 8 p.m. on ESPN.

There is a 65 percent chance that the SEC will be on the wrong end of at least two of the following games in Week 1, and only an 8 percent chance they'll sweep them all. This list, of course, doesn't include Alabama's neutral-site game against West Virginia, in which Football Outsiders' projections have the Crimson Tide as a 25-point favorite. 

Utah State Aggies at Tennessee Volunteers

53.6 percent chance the Vols lose