Biggest bowl mismatches

Florida State's big-play ability could be the difference against Auburn

Updated: December 29, 2013, 10:44 AM ET
By Brad Edwards | ESPN Insider

Jameis WinstonMelina Vastola/USA TODAY SportsFlorida State quarterback Jameis Winston leads one of the nation's most prolific offenses.

Bowl matchups are often difficult to predict because of long layoffs, coaching changes and differing levels of motivation between the teams. But strictly from a statistical standpoint, there are always mismatches. Sure, you could go by the Vegas lines and determine the biggest advantages for one team over another, but this is meant to dig a little deeper, identifying the causes for some of those big point spreads or, in some cases, a reason to believe the underdog may have an advantage it can exploit.

For the remaining bowl games, here's a look at eight of the biggest unit mismatches -- some of them in very specific game situations.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets versus Ole Miss Rebels
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, Dec. 30 (ESPN)
Mismatch:
 goal-to-go offense

The Yellow Jackets have the nation's most effective goal-to-go offense, having converted 32 opportunities into 31 touchdowns and one field goal. The Rebels rank No. 108 at defending goal-to-go situations, having allowed an 87 percent touchdown rate (20 TDs in 23 opportunities). The percentage was even worse -- nine TDs and one FG allowed in 10 opportunities -- in the Rebels' five losses.

• Analyzes college football and the BCS as part of ESPN's Stats & Information Group
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