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The cream of the 2013 free-agent crop was obvious and expensive.

Teams entered the offseason flush with cash and spent prodigiously. Outfielder Josh Hamilton was the best position player, while B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn followed not far behind. Right-hander Zack Greinke was clearly the top free-agent pitcher available. All together, the four top free agents signed multiyear contracts worth close to $300 million.

And what do those teams have to show for it? The trio of outfielders has hit a combined .205 with a paltry nine home runs, five stolen bases and 93 strikeouts. Greinke added a lone win and a broken collarbone.

Conversely, there are a number of lower-priced free agents who are more than earning their paychecks. Since the top four free agents haven’t lived up to their usual performance levels, which free agents have been the best bargains in baseball so far? Here’s a ranking of the top 10 so far:

Note: Performance to date, salary and long-term commitment were all considered for this ranking.

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No, it isn’t a very happy time in Southern California.

SoCal fans just watched as the Lakers and Clippers got bounced out of the NBA playoffs in the first round, while the Dodgers and Angels have looked like they might not even make the playoffs.

Coming into 2013, both Los Angeles baseball teams boasted the largest payrolls in their respective divisions, hoping big offseason spending meant getting to the postseason. And on paper, their rosters are good enough to make the playoffs. However, both teams have been beset by injury and ineffectiveness, and as a result, postseason appearances are hardly assured. However, it’s not too late for the L.A. teams to save their seasons, although both clubs will have to make some major adjustments between now and the July 31 trade deadline.

Here’s why both the Angels and Dodgers are struggling and how they can turn their seasons around:

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In 2011, Tampa Bay Rays pitching prospect Matt Moore and his electric left arm were lighting up the minor leagues. Between Double-A and Triple-A, Moore posted a combined 12-3 record with a 1.92 ERA and amassed a ridiculous 210 strikeouts in 155 innings.

If ever there was a super prospect, it was Moore.

With the Rays clinging to postseason hopes, they promoted Moore that September, and he contributed. He won his only start of the regular season and posted a 2.89 ERA in just three appearances. Perhaps Moore’s most impressive feat was winning Game 1 of the American League Division Series with a two-hit shutout over the Texas Rangers.

The win capped off a tremendous season for Moore, who subsequently signed a backloaded five-year deal worth $14 million, all this while he still was technically a rookie with just three regular-season appearances in the majors to his name. The Rays’ modus operandi regarding Moore aligned with what the Rays have now done twice -- lock up the young talent by buying out their arbitration years at a very club-friendly rate. They did this with third baseman Evan Longoria whose first extension in 2008 was a similar six-year, $17.5 million deal just a few weeks into his big league career.

So what happens when another top prospect comes along?

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With a month of the season in the books, rookies are making impacts on their teams across the majors. For some, their arrivals and performances were expected; others have been pleasant surprises.

I’ll be keeping track of this season’s rookie class in this regular rookie report, monitoring their performances and possible trade stock for when the July 31 trade deadline approaches. So here are the top 15 rookies in the major leagues right now based on how they are performing this year, as well as the next 15 ranked in chart form below.

For the first installment of the rookie report, click here.

1. Shelby Miller | RHP | Stock: Up
Miller is pitching up to the expectations of a first-round pick (picked 19th in 2009). After earning a spot in the rotation out of spring training, he has posted a 3-1 record with an ERA of 1.44 and a WHIP of 0.84. Miller is a strikeout/ground ball machine. He pounds the strike zone with a 91-95 mph fastball with nasty sink and provides plenty of ground ball outs. He consistently gets ahead of batters, which sets up a devastating 12-6 curveball. He’s the early front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year.

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Call it early, call it April, tell me there are still 143 games left in the 162-game schedule, but the fact is that the Kansas City Royals have developed into a legitimate wild-card contender.

They’re off to a relatively fast 11-8 start. They sit perched atop the American League Central. Some might say they’re just keeping the seat warm until the Detroit Tigers figure out their closer situation and Victor Martinez starts to swing the bat.

Well, if the Royals aren't a first-place team yet, they sure can play with the second- and third-best teams in any division of the AL, which means they’re good enough for a possible wild-card berth.

Why am I so confident that this team, which has produced only one above-.500 season since 1995, can actually make the playoffs this season? They finally have pitching.

Amazingly, they’ve had this start while most of their top young hitters have struggled. Third baseman Mike Moustakas is hitting just .154. Both first baseman Eric Hosmer and catcher Salvador Perez have yet to hit a home run; designated hitter Billy Butler, a career .299 hitter, is batting an uncharacteristic .254.

The Royals’ offense has been here before to start a season. But their rebuilt starting rotation is the main reason the Royals are in first place.

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John Schuerholz spent 26 years as a general manager with the Kansas City Royals and Atlanta Braves, the last 17 of those with his Atlanta until he was named club president in the fall of 2007.

His success with the Braves is well documented, but less known is the line of succession he had in place. During Schuerholz's last few years in Atlanta, his scouting director was Dayton Moore, who Schuerholz hoped would eventually take his place as GM. The two were so tight that Moore was nicknamed John Schuerholz Jr. by many of the Braves' employees. However, instead of waiting for Schuerholz to get promoted, Moore took the first GM opportunity he received, accepting an offer from the Royals to be their GM in 2006.

Enter Frank Wren. Wren served as GM of the Baltimore Orioles in 1999 after serving as assistant GM for the Marlins from 1991-1998. After a rocky relationship with Orioles owner Peter Angelos, they parted ways, but not until Bud Selig had to get involved to make sure Wren got paid for his services. Wren quickly landed on his feet, as he was hired by Schuerholz as assistant GM, a position he would hold for eight seasons.

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During spring training, it's not easy to recognize which performances and numbers are legit and which are merely mirages. Spring numbers are never a truly accurate barometer of what to expect from a player during the season. Likewise, early-season numbers are almost as deceiving.

The following five players have enjoyed success early in 2013, but what are we to make of it? Could their terrific play in the first three weeks of the season foreshadow a breakout campaign? Whether resulting from more playing time or new skills acquired in the offseason, this group is performing at a high level right now. The only question is, can they keep it up?

1. Paul Maholm | LHP | Atlanta Braves
Last July, the Braves attempted to acquire Ryan Dempster from the Cubs, but Dempster exercised his no-trade clause. So the Braves instead traded prospects for another Cubs starter in Paul Maholm. It was fortuitous for the Braves as they later used the prospects offered in the Dempster trade to acquire Justin Upton from the Diamondbacks. More important, Maholm has simply been more successful than Dempster since the trade.

Maholm is 3-0 this year with a 0.00 ERA, yielding just 11 hits in 20 1/3 innings pitched while striking out 20 and walking just five. As Senior VP and GM Frank Wren described him to me this week, Maholm “has become a top-flight command-and-control left-handed starter.”

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General managers should be patient and measured. Over the course of 162 games, rash decisions don’t often portend success. A team’s slow start is worrisome, but making knee-jerk reactions can make things only worse. In 1995, when I was GM of the Cincinnati Reds, the team began the season 1-8, but I kept calm and we ended up facing the Atlanta Braves in the National League Championship Series.

That being said, a glaring hole in the lineup or rotation, a weakness in the bullpen or a major injury that continues to cost the team wins cannot be ignored, and it can’t be patched up with bit players. If there’s a viable, quality solution within the organization or via trade, it must be considered. Patience then gives way to impulse. And sometimes these moves work.

Let’s look at five contending teams that had a palpable weakness entering the regular season and now are losing games because of it. Indeed, the GMs of these teams might be tempted to do something impulsive to right the ship. These five moves might actually work if they address the problems now.

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A bad trade can haunt a general manager for life.

I say this while assessing the positions in which St. Louis Cardinals GM John Mozeliak and Texas Rangers GM Jon Daniels find themselves. Mind you, it’s an enviable position; each GM is blessed to have one of the game’s top prospects -- outfielder Oscar Taveras (Cardinals) and shortstop Jurickson Profar (Rangers). And yet neither team has any room for them on their major-league rosters.

That is, unless they swapped prospects.

With the Cardinals in need of a long-term solution at shortstop, Profar would fit perfectly with them. Likewise, Taveras fits with the Rangers, who are seeking a middle-of-the-order bat to play right field, especially with Nelson Cruz in his free-agent walk year.

A deal of this magnitude is referred to as a “challenge” trade, one that will impact both GMs’ careers and their respective teams for years. It takes guts and fortitude to make a trade like this, and how well those players perform will forever be the gauge with which the team and its fans judge who “won” the trade.

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Baseball is witnessing the most competitive balance in more than two decades. As a result, general managers of contending teams already are preparing and targeting potential trade partners for the July 31 trade deadline. All the same, non-contenders are scouting the top prospects in the contenders’ farm system and noting their own trade targets.

For that reason, even 120 days out from the July 31 trade deadline, it isn’t at all too early to be thinking about possible trades.

Thus, here are 10 players I think will most likely be traded by July 31. Early on, GMs have identified the Miami Marlins, Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs and Minnesota Twins as the four teams most likely to be quickly out of the race, which is why this list has eight players from those teams.

1. Chase Headley | 3B
After Headley’s breakout 2012 season, the Padres and Headley engaged in a few conversations about a long-term contract. However, when Headley’s representatives compared him to Ryan Zimmerman, Evan Longoria and David Wright, the conversation quickly died. The Padres felt Headley needed to show the same production for a longer period of time than just a single season to be paid in the range of Zimmerman, Wright and Longoria. And they were right. However, Headley fractured his left thumb in spring training and is out until at least mid-April. If Padres are in the pennant race in July, they’ll keep Headley and try to sign him in the offseason. However, if they’re out of it by the end of July, then a deal is a real possibility.

Trade partners: Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs

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Among this year’s crop of top prospects, some of the bigger, more well-known names are starting the season in the minor leagues. By now Oscar Taveras, Wil Myers and Jurickson Profar are no longer anonymous farmhands but familiar names. Reasons why they didn’t break camp with their big league clubs vary and include economics, being blocked by All-Star talent and overall readiness. But eventually this trio of prospects will get the call this season and could factor into the Rookie of the Year races.

However, what about the prospects who did make their big league clubs? Here is my Top 10 list for the class of rookies currently in the big leagues, based on how I think they will fare this year.

1. Jedd Gyorko | 2B/3B | San Diego Padres

Gyorko can flat-out rake. He has a short stroke with a direct path to the ball. He has above-average power with consistent sweet-spot contact and tremendous plate coverage. He’s playing both second and third right now but will be the Padres’ full-time second baseman when Chase Headley returns from injury. If Headley is moved at the trade deadline, Gyorko will become the Padres’ long-term solution at third. His defense is average at second, but his bat plays and he’s my choice for NL Rookie of the Year.

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Potential and upside, even track record, can carry a career only so far. At some point, a player has to put up or shut up. Baseball is a results-oriented industry and if the production isn't there, neither are you.

With it being Opening Day in many ballparks around the major leagues, the following are 10 guys for whom it's now or never. The 2013 season must amount to some form of success and some relative progress after two or three seasons of failure and disappointment.

Tim Lincecum | RHP | San Francisco Giants
By now the narrative on Lincecum is well-documented: the Giants’ first-round selection and 10th overall pick in the 2006 draft burst on the major league scene in 2008 and achieved rock star status in San Francisco, when he went 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA, led the league with 265 strikeouts and won the first of his two Cy Young awards. That began a run of four consecutive All-Star appearances and culminated in a World Series championship in 2010.

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With Friday’s news of right-hander Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers agreeing to a record-setting contract, the drama of whether baseball’s best pitcher would see free agency in two years came to an end.

Some could say it was predictable in a sense. After all, the Tigers would look extremely foolhardy to allow Verlander to walk via free agency after his current contract expires after 2014. Saying Verlander was going to sign an extension at some point isn’t going out very far on that proverbial limb. It’s just not a bold prediction.

So, what craziness could happen in 2013? With Opening Day just around the corner, here are my 10 bold predictions for the 2013 baseball season:

1. New York Yankees finish last in AL East.

It hasn’t happened in 22 years, since the Yankees finished 67-95 and seven games in back of the Milwaukee Brewers, but the Yankees could very easily go from first in 2012 to worst in 2013. And, with the American League’s largest payroll, there is additional pressure to win in addition to their own high standards of success.

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Spring training performances and statistics can be very misleading. Often major league hitters are facing minor league pitchers, or sometimes major league pitchers are simply working on refining a certain pitch and get hammered. When scouting hitters in person it’s almost more important to pay attention to the pitcher the hitters are facing and where the pitches are in the zone. Honestly, no one cares if a guy hits a home run off an 88 mph fastball down the middle of the plate. However, if that same guy goes yard on an inside fastball off of Justin Verlander or a nasty slider down and away off of David Price, it matters.

This was the first time I spent spring training watching entirely the Cactus League in Arizona. While young players such as Aaron Hicks, Julio Teheran and Jackie Bradley Jr. impressed scouts across the country in the Grapefruit League, six particular players in Arizona impressed me. They performed far beyond what I was expecting, and I’m intrigued to see if they can maintain the brilliance they displayed this spring.

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