With the addition of an extra wild-card team, it's becoming increasingly difficult for GMs to decide whether their team is a contender, so I've decided to do it for them.
Over the next two days I will be looking at six teams on the edge of contention, and explain whether they should reload for 2013 or take a long-term view and eschew 2013 contention in favor of rebuilding.
The following three teams are in "reload" mode because they all possess a strong enough core of players that will allow them to compete this year if they add a couple of complementary parts. For each club I have outlined their trade deadline strategy, trade chips and targets, as well as their dream deal.
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With MLB's trade deadline just six weeks away, there are presently 22 teams within eight games of making the playoffs. This means just eight teams can be considered "sellers" at this juncture. Many of the contenders are looking for elite starting pitching, but the reality is probably only one or two will be traded and contending teams will have to settle for middle- or back-end rotation types.
I'm hearing teams that already have been in trade talks for potential available starters include the San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, Washington Nationals, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians and Baltimore Orioles. Here is a list of the top 20 starting pitchers who could be traded between now and the July 31 trade deadline:
No. 1 starters
Cliff Lee | LHP | Age: 34
Contract status: $25M per year through '15 with vesting option of $27.5M
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“Puig-mania” is alive and well in Los Angeles.
Los Angeles Dodgers rookie Yasiel Puig has been in the big leagues for just a little more than a week, but he already has skyrocketed to the No. 2 spot on my Rookie Rankings after a historic debut week. He became the first Dodger since 1916 to have five multihit games among his first seven, and has quickly drawn comparisons to some of the most athletic five-tool players who have ever played the game.
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This week, ESPN’s T.J. Quinn, Mike Fish and Pedro Gomez reported on "Outside the Lines" that Major League Baseball is seeking to suspend approximately 20 players connected to Biogenesis, the Miami-area clinic that is accused of manufacturing and distributing PEDs.
The scandal could affect pennant races just as a serious injury, a trade or a minor league call-up would. The problem that general managers face right now is they do not know the names of all the players involved, and they don't know how successful MLB will be in its pursuit of suspensions. General managers of contending teams cannot ignore the specter of perhaps one of their key players being on that list.
Quite simply, they’ve got to prepare for the worst. But with the trade deadline just a month and half away, that makes the timing awkward. Take, for example, the San Francisco Giants last season.
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In their heyday during the late 1990s and early 2000s, the Houston Astros boasted a pack of “Killer B’s” and routinely sat atop the National League Central.
A lot has changed.
Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio and Lance Berkman are long gone, the Astros have been transplanted into the American League West under new ownership, and the team, which finished last or second-to-last in four of the past five seasons, is mired in last place again. They are in full rebuilding mode, working diligently since last season to restock a weak farm system.
Of course, the upside to that failure is the Astros own the first overall pick in Thursday's draft. All season, two college pitchers -- Stanford’s Mark Appel and Oklahoma’s Jonathan Gray -- flip-flopped as the projected top pick. While conventional wisdom dictates the Astros select one of them, to me the wiser choice would be to pass on both and select the next Killer B -- San Diego slugger Kris Bryant.
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They are the draft picks resulting from the Competitive Balance Lottery, which took place last July. In other sports you can trade any draft pick, but in MLB's draft only the competitive balance picks can be traded. It's a new wrinkle that will shake up the draft a little bit.
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There are a lot of players who have improved this season, such as Justin Upton and Matt Moore, but the difference between them and the five below is that they were expected to be good.
So let's take a look at the five most improved players in 2013 and examine what they did to overcome their struggles.
1. Josh Donaldson | 3B | Oakland Athletics
After watching Donaldson in Oakland this past week, I was convinced he’s the most improved player I’ve seen this season. He’s always possessed raw power since the Chicago Cubs drafted him in the compensation round of the 2007 draft out of Auburn. But he has always showed holes at the plate, and many wondered how much he would hit. So his eight home runs this season aren’t necessarily a surprise, but his ridiculous power to right-center definitely raised my eyebrows. What impressed me the most was his ability to hit pitches on both sides of the plate. If you pitch him away he goes away, pitch him in and he’ll pull it.
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Sparky Anderson once told me he didn’t believe in anything he saw on the field until June 1. Only after two months of baseball could he have confidence a player or team’s performance was legitimate.
With June just around the corner, there are several teams and players who I believe and don’t believe in. Last week I wrote about how the Seattle Mariners have what it takes to contend all season. Then Monday I wrote about how the Cleveland Indians can’t even be considered as a wild-card contender unless they acquire more pitching help. In that same vein, here are five other performances I think will either hold up for the rest of the season or won’t.
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What a difference one offseason can make.
On May 22, 2012, the Cleveland Indians found themselves atop the American League Central, sporting a surprising 23-18 record. Today, the Indians again sit in first place with an equally surprising 26-18 record.
But the Indians are a completely different team in 2013.
They’ve been the best story in the AL this season. Outside of the New York Yankees' cast of reclamation projects, the Indians arguably have been the most fun team to watch in the league. New manager Terry Francona has injected the franchise with his positive energy and motivational skills. His championship-winning background earned him instant respect and credibility, from the players all the way to the front office. Teaming with general manager Chris Antonetti and president Mark Shapiro, the trio did a good job of addressing most of the team's needs.
So it is nearly June, and the Indians lead the division favorite Detroit Tigers by a game and a half. Indians fans should enjoy it while they can. Despite the team being significantly better than last season’s squad, it simply does not have enough starting pitching to keep pace with the Tigers in the AL Central. And without some extra pitching help, the Indians can’t even be considered a legitimate wild-card contender.
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After another win in the Bronx last night, the Seattle Mariners are just a game below .500 and in second place in the AL West. This club was built on pitching and defense, and it's strong in both areas. However, with an offense that ranks 14th in the AL in runs, there are some issues.
The good news for the Mariners is that they have one of the deepest farm systems in the majors and can fix some of those problems from within via promotions and by trading some of that depth. When I look around the American League, I don't see any team that is going to run away with a wild-card berth. And while I don't think the Mariners can catch the Rangers in the AL West, I expect them to compete for a playoff spot all summer. They just need to make a few key adjustments.
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Teams entered the offseason flush with cash and spent prodigiously. Outfielder Josh Hamilton was the best position player, while B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn followed not far behind. Right-hander Zack Greinke was clearly the top free-agent pitcher available. All together, the four top free agents signed multiyear contracts worth close to $300 million.
And what do those teams have to show for it? The trio of outfielders has hit a combined .205 with a paltry nine home runs, five stolen bases and 93 strikeouts. Greinke added a lone win and a broken collarbone.
Conversely, there are a number of lower-priced free agents who are more than earning their paychecks. Since the top four free agents haven’t lived up to their usual performance levels, which free agents have been the best bargains in baseball so far? Here’s a ranking of the top 10 so far:
Note: Performance to date, salary and long-term commitment were all considered for this ranking.
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SoCal fans just watched as the Lakers and Clippers got bounced out of the NBA playoffs in the first round, while the Dodgers and Angels have looked like they might not even make the playoffs.
Coming into 2013, both Los Angeles baseball teams boasted the largest payrolls in their respective divisions, hoping big offseason spending meant getting to the postseason. And on paper, their rosters are good enough to make the playoffs. However, both teams have been beset by injury and ineffectiveness, and as a result, postseason appearances are hardly assured. However, it’s not too late for the L.A. teams to save their seasons, although both clubs will have to make some major adjustments between now and the July 31 trade deadline.
Here’s why both the Angels and Dodgers are struggling and how they can turn their seasons around:
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If ever there was a super prospect, it was Moore.
With the Rays clinging to postseason hopes, they promoted Moore that September, and he contributed. He won his only start of the regular season and posted a 2.89 ERA in just three appearances. Perhaps Moore’s most impressive feat was winning Game 1 of the American League Division Series with a two-hit shutout over the Texas Rangers.
The win capped off a tremendous season for Moore, who subsequently signed a backloaded five-year deal worth $14 million, all this while he still was technically a rookie with just three regular-season appearances in the majors to his name. The Rays’ modus operandi regarding Moore aligned with what the Rays have now done twice -- lock up the young talent by buying out their arbitration years at a very club-friendly rate. They did this with third baseman Evan Longoria whose first extension in 2008 was a similar six-year, $17.5 million deal just a few weeks into his big league career.
So what happens when another top prospect comes along?
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I’ll be keeping track of this season’s rookie class in this regular rookie report, monitoring their performances and possible trade stock for when the July 31 trade deadline approaches. So here are the top 15 rookies in the major leagues right now based on how they are performing this year, as well as the next 15 ranked in chart form below.
For the first installment of the rookie report, click here.
1. Shelby Miller | RHP | Stock: Up
Miller is pitching up to the expectations of a first-round pick (picked 19th in 2009). After earning a spot in the rotation out of spring training, he has posted a 3-1 record with an ERA of 1.44 and a WHIP of 0.84. Miller is a strikeout/ground ball machine. He pounds the strike zone with a 91-95 mph fastball with nasty sink and provides plenty of ground ball outs. He consistently gets ahead of batters, which sets up a devastating 12-6 curveball. He’s the early front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year.
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They’re off to a relatively fast 11-8 start. They sit perched atop the American League Central. Some might say they’re just keeping the seat warm until the Detroit Tigers figure out their closer situation and Victor Martinez starts to swing the bat.
Well, if the Royals aren't a first-place team yet, they sure can play with the second- and third-best teams in any division of the AL, which means they’re good enough for a possible wild-card berth.
Why am I so confident that this team, which has produced only one above-.500 season since 1995, can actually make the playoffs this season? They finally have pitching.
Amazingly, they’ve had this start while most of their top young hitters have struggled. Third baseman Mike Moustakas is hitting just .154. Both first baseman Eric Hosmer and catcher Salvador Perez have yet to hit a home run; designated hitter Billy Butler, a career .299 hitter, is batting an uncharacteristic .254.
The Royals’ offense has been here before to start a season. But their rebuilt starting rotation is the main reason the Royals are in first place.
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- JimBowdenESPNxm JIM BOWDEN
Tommy Lasorda and Reggie Jackson at Yankee Stadium tonight: https://t.co/jXx2xrKHUg
about 7 hours ago
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CBA working with most first round picks signed & going out to play...not losing a year of development...and worst teams getting best players
about 8 hours ago
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Cardinals GM John Mozeliak direct audio/video: http://t.co/ES2Qy35Hye
about 8 hours ago
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Bruce Bochy would have a hard time taking Puig to All Star Game: http://t.co/1ffZIYoASl
about 11 hours ago
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Dodgers, Giants, Indians reload time: http://t.co/hVIVKk9XrA
about 11 hours ago
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#Dodgers #Giants #Indians should reload and here are some brainstorming idea's how they could do it: http://t.co/hVIVKk9XrA
about 14 hours ago
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Cards GM John Mozeliak challenging @Ken_Rosenthal for best bow tie of the year....who r u voting for? http://t.co/ES2Qy35Hye
about 14 hours ago
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- JimBowdenESPNxm JIM BOWDEN
Cards GM John Mozeliak giving @KenRosenthal a run for his money with this bow tie: http://t.co/ES2Qy35Hye
about 14 hours ago
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- JimBowdenESPNxm JIM BOWDEN
John Mozeliak direct audio/video on Wainwright, Matheny, Taveras & STL Draft picks: http://t.co/ES2Qy35Hye
about 14 hours ago
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- JimBowdenESPNxm JIM BOWDEN
Cards GM John Mozeliak shares thoughts on Wainwright, Matheny, Taveras and their draft...direct video/audio:
about 14 hours ago
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John Miozeliak direct audio and video on Oscar Tavares timetable http://t.co/ES2Qy35Hye
about 15 hours ago
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Thanks to ESPN Kansas City for having me on your show today!
about 17 hours ago
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- JimBowdenESPNxm JIM BOWDEN
Coming up on our show today guests will include: Jon Daniels GM Rangers; Jerry DiPoto GM Angels and John Buck NY Mets Sirius 209 XM 89 2pmET
about 20 hours ago
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- JimBowdenESPNxm JIM BOWDEN
Bruce Bochy told me it would really be hard for him to consider picking Puig for ASG since he's only been here a few weeks XM 89 #Puigmania
1 day ago
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- JimBowdenESPNxm JIM BOWDEN
Brett Gardner Yankees CF joins us right now on Sirius 209 XM 89 #Yankees
1 day ago
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Royals have best record in MLB in month of June with a 12-4 record
1 day ago
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Royals Alex Gordon on the influence of the George Brett hiring"Definitely brought a positive vibe to the club especially with his intensity"
1 day ago
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- JimBowdenESPNxm JIM BOWDEN
#InsidePitch on Tuesday guests will include: Alex Gordon KC Royals; Mike Matheny, STL Cardinals and Bruce Bochy, SF Giants Sirius 209 XM 89
2 days ago
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- JimBowdenESPNxm JIM BOWDEN
Padres are 87-75 over their last 162 games
2 days ago
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- JimBowdenESPNxm JIM BOWDEN
MLB Run Differential leaders: STL +102; Det +85; Bos +73; Cin +63; Atl +60 & Oak +50
2 days ago
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