My best and worst free-agent predictions
April, 15, 2014
By Jim Bowden | ESPN Insider
AP Photo/Seth WenigNo free agent got a more market-appropriate deal over the winter than Brian McCann.One of my favorite pieces I write every year is my free-agent predictions. For those unfamiliar, at the start of every offseason, I make my best guess at what each free agent's contract will look like and give a prediction of where he will sign.
In the interest of accountability, I thought it would be a good idea to go back and review my best and worst predictions before the season gets too far along.
This year, I was pretty accurate in predicting the average annual value of most contracts, but I was a little light on years, perhaps not properly adjusting for the game's growing TV revenues. For example, I predicted Robinson Cano would get $25 million per season over eight years. He got $24 million per season, but over 10 years.
Here's a look at my best and worst offseason predictions, starting with the best.
Brian McCann, C | New York Yankees
Prediction: 5 years, $90 million
Actual: 5 years, $85 million
Yankees GM Brian Cashman did a great job in getting this deal done quickly and allowing the Yankees' long tradition of distinguished catchers from Yogi Berra to Thurman Munson to Jorge Posada to (now) McCann to continue.