The GM's Office by Jim Bowden: Trade Deadline
After another win in the Bronx last night, the Seattle Mariners are just a game below .500 and in second place in the AL West. This club was built on pitching and defense, and it's strong in both areas. However, with an offense that ranks 14th in the AL in runs, there are some issues.
The good news for the Mariners is that they have one of the deepest farm systems in the majors and can fix some of those problems from within via promotions and by trading some of that depth. When I look around the American League, I don't see any team that is going to run away with a wild-card berth. And while I don't think the Mariners can catch the Rangers in the AL West, I expect them to compete for a playoff spot all summer. They just need to make a few key adjustments.
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SoCal fans just watched as the Lakers and Clippers got bounced out of the NBA playoffs in the first round, while the Dodgers and Angels have looked like they might not even make the playoffs.
Coming into 2013, both Los Angeles baseball teams boasted the largest payrolls in their respective divisions, hoping big offseason spending meant getting to the postseason. And on paper, their rosters are good enough to make the playoffs. However, both teams have been beset by injury and ineffectiveness, and as a result, postseason appearances are hardly assured. However, it’s not too late for the L.A. teams to save their seasons, although both clubs will have to make some major adjustments between now and the July 31 trade deadline.
Here’s why both the Angels and Dodgers are struggling and how they can turn their seasons around:
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Five moves that got Giants to World Series
Andy Lyons/Getty ImagesMatt Cain has developed into the Giants' No. 1 starter, but they were lucky to draft him.On Monday we discussed the five moves that helped get the Detroit Tigers to the World Series and established that to get this far, you not only need good, shrewd decisions, but also a little luck.
For the San Francisco Giants, their drafts have had a direct impact on developing a core of players most responsible for their success. Here are the five crucial moves that helped the Giants reach the World Series:
1. Drafting Matt Cain
The Giants drafted Matt Cain in the first round of the 2002 draft with the 25th pick overall. This was the stocked draft in which the Pittsburgh Pirates whiffed by taking Bryan Bullington with the first overall pick, and it included several other All-Star players such as Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels and Prince Fielder.
The Giants have done a great job taking pitchers in the first round; they selected both Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner with the 10th overall pick in 2006 and 2007, respectively. The Cain pick stands out because he came a little later in the first round and he has become the Giants' ace, and a pitcher who is now 4-2 lifetime in the postseason with an ERA of 1.83 in five different series. The Giants also have him signed to what amounts to an eight-year, $139.75 million contract from 2010 to 2017 with a club option for 2018. They’ve got a big-game pitcher thanks to a big-time draft decision.
2. Drafting Buster Posey
By hitting .336/.408/.549 with 39 doubles, 24 home runs and 103 RBIs, Posey won the NL batting title and I expect him to be named the NL Most Valuable Player in November. The Giants’ scouting department selected him fifth overall in the 2008 draft. The Giants were fortunate that Tim Beckham, Pedro Alvarez, Eric Hosmer and Brian Matusz were all picked before them, so they had the opportunity to take Posey. (It helped that some of those clubs were scared off by Posey's bonus demands, but kudos to the Giants for taking -- and paying -- the guy they wanted.)
Posey does a tremendous job of calling a game, framing pitches and maintaining consistent solid contact with his pitcher. Giants pitchers rarely shake him off because of their trust in him. It is remarkable that Posey will have already played in two World Series in the first three years of his major league career, all while hitting cleanup and shouldering the catching duties, which can by physically and mentally onerous. He’s a Hall of Famer in the making at an early age.
3. Acquiring Marco Scutaro
He was just named the NLCS MVP after going 14-for-28 and getting on base an incredible 16 times in the seven-game series. Giants GM Brian Sabean acquired Scutaro from the Colorado Rockies on July 27, costing only minor league infielder Charlie Culberson.
Scutaro is an above-average defensive second baseman and has brought stability and experience to the middle of the diamond. His leadership helped develop his double play partner, Brandon Crawford, who was much more consistent defensively after Scutaro arrived. There are many baseball clichés that best describe Scutaro, such as “dirt bag," “gamer," and “winner." He’s the ideal No. 2 hitter in the lineup because he can hit-and-run, bunt, move runners and take pitches. And he very rarely strikes out.
4. Drafting Sergio Romo
Romo was the Giants’ 28th-round pick of the 2005 draft, and although it’s taken time for him to develop into a closer, his nasty slider and incredible spirit and heart have always made him a special player. Romo was 4-2 this year with a 1.79 ERA, .087 WHIP and 14 saves. He’s symbolic of the many successful late-round picks that the Giants scouting staff has made over the years and another example of how hard-core scouting can be a difference maker.
5. Acquiring Hunter Pence
Sabean has made it routine the past few years to acquire a significant outfield bat either in the offseason or during the season to help the Giants improve their offense and defense. Last year he acquired Carlos Beltran from the New York Mets and then this past offseason he traded for both Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan. On July 31 he traded Nate Schierholtz and prospects Tommy Joseph and Seth Rosin to the Philadelphia Phillies for Pence.
On the year, Pence hit .253/.319/.425 with 24 doubles, 24 home runs and 104 RBIs. Though his playing style is somewhat awkward, Pence has brought outfield stability to the Giants. This was critical, especially because no less than a month later Cabrera -- the All-Star Game MVP -- tested positive for PEDs and his year with the Giants was finished.
Pence’s pregame pep talks compare to those of Baltimore Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis, with the same bizarre glares that put fear in you if you don’t know him. Pence is all heart and just wants to help the players stay loose and motivated. He’s not a true “impact” player, but he’s a solid player who drove in 45 runs in just 59 games to finish the season, helping the Giants hold off the Dodgers in the NL West.
Trades that should've happened but didn't 
It was one of the busiest July 31 non-waiver trade deadlines in recent memory, but what about a handful of trades that did not happen but should have? These were deals that made a lot of sense, even perhaps got discussed between teams, yet never materialized. They could be the one deal that makes the difference between the postseason and sitting at home this fall.
Here are five trades that should have happened but didn't. But who knows? They might still have a chance of happening in August or the offseason.
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Note: Teams that made no notable moves did not receive grades.
Los Angeles Angels
Notable additions: RHP Zack GreinkeNotable losses: RHP John Hellweg, RHP Ariel Pena, IF Jean Segura
Analysis: The Angels clearly won the trade deadline with the acquisition of former American League Cy Young Award winner Greinke. Segura was expendable because of the long-term deals shelled out to Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar. The Angels now have the best top four starters in the American League.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Notable additions: 3B Hanley Ramirez, OF Shane Victorino, LHP Randy Choate, RHP Brandon LeagueNotable losses: RHPs Ethan Martin, Nathan Eovaldi, Josh Lindblom
Analysis: The acquisition of Ramirez was a steal for the Dodgers, especially considering they will control him for two more years. Ramirez, 28, should benefit from the change of scenery and help protect Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier in the lineup. Victorino gives the Dodgers a table setter and a stolen base threat while improving their defense in left field. League and Choate improve their sixth- and seventh-inning relief corps.
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Must-do trades for retooling the Phillies 
For the first time in his career as a general manager, Philadelphia Phillies GM Ruben Amaro finds himself a seller as baseball’s July 31 trade deadline looms.
At present, his team simply isn’t good enough to get back into the postseason race, either for the division crown or even one of the two wild-card berths. Simply put, he should sell ... liberally.
That means Shane Victorino, Cliff Lee, Hunter Pence and Juan Pierre.
Amaro’s wheeling and dealing over the years to acquire talent such as Roy Halladay and Pence has cost the Phillies’ farm system depth. Certainly it has seen its share of attrition, but the trades have depleted much of the currency with which Amaro has been accustomed to trading. In effect, by dealing Lee and Pence, he is essentially trying to reverse what he has done.
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Conventional wisdom approaching this year’s July 31 trade deadline said there would be more buyers than sellers. While that has indeed turned out to be the case, a couple of factors have complicated many possible trade scenarios.
First, the new Collective Bargaining Agreement no longer affords draft-pick compensation for players acquired in an in-season trade who are also free agents at season’s end. Thus, a team acquiring Zack Greinke this year will receive no compensatory draft picks if they are unable to retain him after the season.
It was supposed to be a seller’s market, but buyers have been reluctant to forfeit their futures knowing they might have absolutely nothing to show for it. In other words, teams have to recalibrate their expectations of what they can get back for a rental player.
Secondly, one would have thought the establishment of a second wild-card berth in both leagues would motivate some teams on the lip of the postseason to drive the market. However,
these same teams have been leery of trading for a “rental” player because of the architecture of the wild-card series; it’s only one game. To mortgage the future for one nine-inning elimination game just doesn’t make sense for teams that are realistically only contending for a wild-card berth.
Therefore, the teams most likely to make a trade for a top-tier “rental” player are clubs that believe they can win the division. A one-game wild card playoff combined with no draft-pick compensation forces a club to realize that renting on Park Place for a couple of months might not be worth the long-term cost.
• The Philadelphia Phillies are prepared to offer Cole Hamels a Matt Cain-type deal, but if that doesn’t work, general manager Ruben Amaro is prepared to trade him. The most likely landing places are the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Dodgers.
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Both the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies are unaccustomed to approaching the July 31 trade deadline as “sellers.” And yet, that’s perhaps their best course of action.
Despite extremely slow starts, the two teams still have enough collective talent to contend for at least wild-card berths this season. A couple of winning streaks and the Red Sox or Phillies could find themselves back in the thick of a division race. And their places in the standings might determine whether the sell or buy. Understandably, the allure of going on a late-season run can motivate a team’s front office to acquire players rather than trade them for prospects. If they’re deep in the hunt, these two proud teams will jump in.
But if they’re on the fringe, both organizations have to take a hard look at where their teams are and the direction in which they are heading. They might consider being sellers instead and use the opportunity to retool their teams for the long-term rather than considering the short-term and trying to win the World Series this year. Such an effort could come at the expense of long-term improvement over the next several years.
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By acquiring the left-handed Bedard, the Red Sox get the pitcher they wanted for the back end of the rotation without giving up much. Bedard, 32, was 4-7 with an ERA of 3.45 and a WHIP of 1.172 in 16 games started with 87 strikeouts and 77 hits in 91⅓ innings pitched. In his 16 starts for the Mariners this year, only three times did he give up more than three earned runs in a start. Bedard will pitch at 88-92 mph with a solid curveball and effective changeup. He is a health risk, and it will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure of pitching at Fenway Park. He certainly gives the Red Sox much-needed rotation depth, and for what they gave up (very little), Bedard is worth the gamble.
The Mariners get a solid center-field prospect in Robinson, who has the ability to steal bases and is a plus defender. Robinson has surprising power and is a quality line-drive hitter. He is prone to strikeouts, but has tremendous makeup. Chiang, 23, was hitting .338/.399 with 36 doubles, 18 home runs and 76 RBIs at Double-A Portland of the Eastern League. His swing is a little long but he makes sweet-spot contact when he gets a pitch he can handle.
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Now that the non-waiver trade deadline has passed, I have ranked the top five general managers in two categories -- those who were making deals to win now, and those who were building for the future.
TRYING TO WIN NOW
1. Brian Sabean, San Francisco Giants: Sabean made three deals, including a deal for the best available hitter (Carlos Beltran) and two minor deals that added infield depth (Jeff Keppinger and Orlando Cabrera).
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Ludwick, 33, is a former All-Star and Silver Slugger winner (2008) and is hitting .238/.301/.373 with 18 doubles, 11 home runs and 64 RBIs in 420 plate appearances. Ludwick, whose numbers have declined since he had a career season in 2008, has a career .262/.301/.373 slash line. He can hit fifth or sixth in the Pirates' lineup. He has the ability to play either corner outfield position, and is an average defender.
Ludwick is the second veteran bat acquired by Pirates GM Neal Huntington, who traded for first baseman Derrek Lee from the Baltimore Orioles. The Pirates' deals for Lee and Ludwick will not be difference-makers for the team. They are no longer middle-of-the-order production players, and both are in decline. The best part of these two deals is that they didn't include any of the Pirates' solid prospects.
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Ziegler, 31, was 3-2 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 43 appearances for the A’s this year. He is one of the rare sidearmers in baseball, and right-handed hitters are batting just .198 against him as compared to .396 against left-handed hitters. He will fit in nicely as a situational righty for D-backs manager Kirk Gibson.
The Athletics acquire a big arm in Norberto. Norberto, 24, throws 94-95 mph with a solid-to-average breaking ball. He has above-average stuff, and now it’s a question of whether he can command it. Over the past two months, his command has improved, and the A’s feel he is heading in the right direction. He’s also a 0-3 service-time player with options, giving the A’s payroll and roster flexibility as they wait for the production to catch up with the electric stuff.
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Adams has a funky look that is very deceptive; it's difficult for hitters to get good reads off of him. His nasty cutter/slider is 89-92 mph, and that is the wipeout pitch that makes him so special. The Rangers are expected to move Neftali Feliz into the starting rotation in 2012, and Adams no doubt will eventually become their closer.
Erlin, 20, is a small lefty who really knows how to pitch. His fastball is mostly 88-91 mph with good life that he uses on both sides of the plate. He’s a fly ball pitcher who will work well at Petco Park. His changeup is his best secondary pitch with good deception. Wieland, 21, has a fastball that is 89-93 with above-average command and control. He has a plus curveball and an average change. Erlin projects as a future No. 2 or No. 3 starter, while Wieland is more of No. 3 or No. 4 starter. Both will pitch in the big leagues.
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Bourn, 28, was hitting .303/.363/.403 with 64 runs scored, 26 doubles, seven triples and a league-leading 39 stolen bases in 46 attempts. A former All-Star and two-time Gold Glove Award winner, Bourn is an elite center fielder whose ability to get to balls in the gaps and behind him is rare among outfielders. Even the defensive metrics show he is one of the league's top two defensive center fielders. Plus, his success rate on stealing bases throughout his career is an impressive 83 percent.
Bourn changes the entire dimension of the Braves' lineup. Finally, the Braves have a leadoff hitter who can disrupt a pitching staff on the bases, particularly in close games in the late innings. Bourn's acquisition will move Martin Prado to the two-hole where he belongs and give the Braves much-improved on-base percentages in the top two spots. Having Bourn and Prado together will create more fastballs for the middle of their lineup, consisting of Brian McCann (when he's back from the DL), Chipper Jones, Dan Uggla, Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward. The only downside is that the Braves' lineup becomes too left-handed. The deal, however, will be significant come playoff time because speed at the top of the order can make a huge difference in a game's outcome when the Braves are facing the league's best pitchers in 2-1 or 3-2 battles.
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Padres are 87-75 over their last 162 games
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MLB Run Differential leaders: STL +102; Det +85; Bos +73; Cin +63; Atl +60 & Oak +50
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Terry Ryan Twins GM confirmed that veterans Josh Willingham, Justin Mourneau & Kevin Correia will be the players most asked about @deadline
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