The GM's Office by Jim Bowden: St. Louis Cardinals
I’ll be keeping track of this season’s rookie class in this regular rookie report, monitoring their performances and possible trade stock for when the July 31 trade deadline approaches. So here are the top 15 rookies in the major leagues right now based on how they are performing this year, as well as the next 15 ranked in chart form below.
For the first installment of the rookie report, click here.
1. Shelby Miller | RHP | Stock: Up
Miller is pitching up to the expectations of a first-round pick (picked 19th in 2009). After earning a spot in the rotation out of spring training, he has posted a 3-1 record with an ERA of 1.44 and a WHIP of 0.84. Miller is a strikeout/ground ball machine. He pounds the strike zone with a 91-95 mph fastball with nasty sink and provides plenty of ground ball outs. He consistently gets ahead of batters, which sets up a devastating 12-6 curveball. He’s the early front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year.
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His success with the Braves is well documented, but less known is the line of succession he had in place. During Schuerholz's last few years in Atlanta, his scouting director was Dayton Moore, who Schuerholz hoped would eventually take his place as GM. The two were so tight that Moore was nicknamed John Schuerholz Jr. by many of the Braves' employees. However, instead of waiting for Schuerholz to get promoted, Moore took the first GM opportunity he received, accepting an offer from the Royals to be their GM in 2006.
Enter Frank Wren. Wren served as GM of the Baltimore Orioles in 1999 after serving as assistant GM for the Marlins from 1991-1998. After a rocky relationship with Orioles owner Peter Angelos, they parted ways, but not until Bud Selig had to get involved to make sure Wren got paid for his services. Wren quickly landed on his feet, as he was hired by Schuerholz as assistant GM, a position he would hold for eight seasons.
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Five early surprises: Can they keep it up? 
The following five players have enjoyed success early in 2013, but what are we to make of it? Could their terrific play in the first three weeks of the season foreshadow a breakout campaign? Whether resulting from more playing time or new skills acquired in the offseason, this group is performing at a high level right now. The only question is, can they keep it up?
1. Paul Maholm | LHP | Atlanta Braves
Last July, the Braves attempted to acquire Ryan Dempster from the Cubs, but Dempster exercised his no-trade clause. So the Braves instead traded prospects for another Cubs starter in Paul Maholm. It was fortuitous for the Braves as they later used the prospects offered in the Dempster trade to acquire Justin Upton from the Diamondbacks. More important, Maholm has simply been more successful than Dempster since the trade.
Maholm is 3-0 this year with a 0.00 ERA, yielding just 11 hits in 20 1/3 innings pitched while striking out 20 and walking just five. As Senior VP and GM Frank Wren described him to me this week, Maholm “has become a top-flight command-and-control left-handed starter.”
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I say this while assessing the positions in which St. Louis Cardinals GM John Mozeliak and Texas Rangers GM Jon Daniels find themselves. Mind you, it’s an enviable position; each GM is blessed to have one of the game’s top prospects -- outfielder Oscar Taveras (Cardinals) and shortstop Jurickson Profar (Rangers). And yet neither team has any room for them on their major-league rosters.
That is, unless they swapped prospects.
With the Cardinals in need of a long-term solution at shortstop, Profar would fit perfectly with them. Likewise, Taveras fits with the Rangers, who are seeking a middle-of-the-order bat to play right field, especially with Nelson Cruz in his free-agent walk year.
A deal of this magnitude is referred to as a “challenge” trade, one that will impact both GMs’ careers and their respective teams for years. It takes guts and fortitude to make a trade like this, and how well those players perform will forever be the gauge with which the team and its fans judge who “won” the trade.
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However, what about the prospects who did make their big league clubs? Here is my Top 10 list for the class of rookies currently in the big leagues, based on how I think they will fare this year.
1. Jedd Gyorko | 2B/3B | San Diego Padres
Gyorko can flat-out rake. He has a short stroke with a direct path to the ball. He has above-average power with consistent sweet-spot contact and tremendous plate coverage. He’s playing both second and third right now but will be the Padres’ full-time second baseman when Chase Headley returns from injury. If Headley is moved at the trade deadline, Gyorko will become the Padres’ long-term solution at third. His defense is average at second, but his bat plays and he’s my choice for NL Rookie of the Year.
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If the following scenario sounds keenly familiar to Texas Rangers fans, it should.
A veteran player realizes he must move to another position to make room for a young budding star, despite making the All-Star team and earning a Gold Glove the prior season. He refuses at first, but finally relents knowing the move is what’s best for the team.
In 2009, after being a five time All-Star and coming off two straight Gold Glove campaigns, the Rangers moved Michael Young from shortstop to third base to make room for an exciting prospect named Elvis Andrus. Still seemingly in the prime of his career, Young bristled at first but eventually knew the team came first and shifted over.
Fast-forward to this spring training, where prospect Jurickson Profar has forced the Rangers into another tough decision. Profar is the best middle infield prospect in baseball. His talent says he's ready to be an everyday player at the major league level. Frankly, the Rangers should have named Profar their everyday second baseman before spring training even started. But that means All-Star second baseman Ian Kinsler must move to first base.
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How does a veteran pitcher post a 16-3 record last season and not have a job just two weeks away from Opening Day?
Such is the plight of right-hander Kyle Lohse. The Scott Boras client remains jobless and the market for him is razor thin. With teams steadfastly refusing to surrender a draft pick in order to sign Lohse, there lurks the real possibility that Lohse could be without a team for a long time, well after Opening Day.
How long? It could be June before he has a job -- after the MLB first-year player draft. And part of the reason is the new collective bargaining agreement.
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Dodgers crossing their fingers on Greinke 
The right-hander has been dealing with inflammation in his pitching elbow and was given an injection of platelet-rich plasma (PRP) to settle down the elbow. In my experience, inflammation is a telltale sign of loose bodies -- perhaps a bone spur or something similar. But when I pressed Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti, he told me there were no loose bodies or a bone spur in the back of Greinke’s elbow.
The Dodgers are hoping the PRP injection helps Greinke as it did his teammate Chad Billingsley, who is pain-free and throwing great. Greinke didn’t want to talk about the elbow, only saying that he was going to follow the direction of the training staff. To him, the best-case scenario might be pitching the second game of the season, but he definitely won't be able to throw 120 pitches by then even if all goes well.
Greinke is emblematic of the Dodgers right now: lots of star power with lots of questions. The star power sends expectations through the roof -- expectations that don’t match the team’s actual ability level and health. A good season has the Dodgers winning 90 games and a playoff berth, but the fact is they simply aren’t better than clubs such as the Giants, Nationals, Reds and Tigers.
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Five moves that will happen this spring 
During spring training, players aren’t the only ones trying to fine-tune things. General managers must use the time to evaluate not only their players but their field staff, too. It’s the time to get things done, especially things such as contract negotiations, which neither player nor management wants to do into the regular season. After nearly three decades in the industry, I’ve seen and experienced what happens when certain things don’t get done before the regular season commences.
Thus, I predict the following five moves will get done during spring training:
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Ranking the offseason for all 30 teams 
• How it improved the team for 2013, as well as the next five years.
• How it affected payroll and budgets -- both short and long term.
• How it affected team chemistry and clubhouse culture.
• How effectively needs were filled -- through free agency, trade or farm system.
• The amount of money committed compared with the value received.
• Aggressiveness.
With spring camp upon us, we'll see whose offseason produces the best results. Here are the rankings of all 30 teams’ offseason campaigns.
1. Toronto Blue Jays | GM: Alex Anthopoulos
Acquired: RHPs R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, LHPs Mark Buehrle, Darren Oliver, SS Jose Reyes, C's Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas, IFs Emilio Bonifacio, Maicer Izturis, OF Melky Cabrera
Analysis: Anthopoulos had a tremendous offseason, making two of the biggest offseason trades in baseball history. It cost him some prospects, and when the dust settled the Blue Jays added three top-of-the-rotation starters to complement Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow to give the Jays the best five-man rotation in the division -- on paper. They now have the veteran leadership, speed, energy and enthusiasm to be a legitimate World Series contender.
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Seven potential breakout players in 2013 
There’s an old scouting adage: “He’ll tell us when he’s ready.”
While that mainly pertains to gauging minor league players and their major league readiness, it also applies to young major leaguers trying to live up to their potential and looking for that “breakout” season.
It’s that season when all the tools, talent and abilities come together to fulfill the many high expectations on all the scouting reports. It offers the talent evaluators confirmation that they got it right while proving the critics wrong.
Take a look at the breakout seasons Matt Kemp, Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Gonzalez enjoyed over the past several years. Long regarded as five-tool players with elite physical talent, their teams and fans waited and waited for the corresponding elite production to come. It happened for a 24-year-old Kemp in 2009, when he hit 26 homers with 101 RBIs and won his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards after slowly increasing his production since his major league debut in 2006. Likewise, the same explosion happened for Gonzalez in 2010 at age 24, and then for McCutchen in 2012 at age 25.
The 2013 season should be no different. Here are seven individuals, all just about the same age as our aforementioned trio, who have barely scratched the surface of their massive potential and are primed to be among baseball’s breakout players in 2013.
1. Justin Upton | OF | Age: 25
With six years of experience, Upton is primed to finally reach his potential. He’s different than Kemp, McCutchen and Gonzalez because he’s already had a successful start to his career that includes two All-Star appearances, a Silver Slugger Award and a top-five showing in 2011 NL MVP voting. He has the potential to produce 35 homers and 100 RBIs annually, but he has yet to put together a consistent year from start to finish that would really signify his arrival. Being traded to the Atlanta Braves might just be the trigger. Playing beside his brother B.J. and surrounded in the lineup with other elite young players such as Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman could spur him to bring his game to another level. The Diamondbacks didn’t believe in him and he will be motivated to show them that they were wrong to trade him.
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Best fits, predictions for remaining FAs 
In about a month, pitchers and catchers will be reporting for spring training, and yet several significant free agents remain unemployed. Some were even once thought to be among the best in this offseason’s free agent class, but because of bad timing, trades or teams’ reluctance to part with draft picks, the lucrative contracts these players were seeking simply haven’t materialized.
Here are the best players left on the free agent market, as well as where they fit best and a prediction of where I think they will sign.
1. Michael Bourn | CF
The center fielder market collapsed pretty quickly for the best leadoff hitter and defensive center fielder in this year’s free agent market when the three NL East teams with obvious holes in center field filled their needs right out of the chute: The Washington Nationals traded with the Minnesota Twins for Denard Span. Then the Atlanta Braves signed B.J. Upton to a five-year, $75 million deal. Soon after, the Philadelphia Phillies acquired Ben Revere from the Twins.
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1. Texas Rangers-Miami Marlins trade
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Getting great players out of bad spots 
An emotional reaction was not a surprise and probably warranted. Shortly after the Miami Marlins' blockbuster trade of Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson to the Toronto Blue Jays in November, Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton sent out the following tweet:
@Giancarlo818: "Alright, I'm pissed off!!! Plain & Simple”
He watched as his team’s management decimated the roster for a package of prospects. Now Stanton sits in the wreckage of what used to be a team most thought would contend for the National League East Division title. Now they’ll be lucky not to lose 100 games.
Stanton has been very open about his desire to be traded, but the Marlins have control of his contract through 2016. The question now will be whether he gets his wish. If you believe the Marlins’ front office, it’s not happening.
When great players are stuck in bad situations, they must possess and display great character and intensity to perform at the same level as if they were on a contending team. Here are five examples of great players who will have to perform in bad situations in 2013, as well as a look at how these players might be able to get out of their current mess:
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American League
Baltimore Orioles
Player: Brian Matusz, LHP
Reason: There are several teams that believe what Matusz did in relief for the Orioles down the stretch he can also do in the starting rotation if given another opportunity. The Orioles want a corner guy/DH, and they might have to use Matusz to fill that hole.
Possible trade partners: Mets, Padres, Indians, Cubs
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Andrew McCutchen scratched today with a right knee injury; Aramis Ramriez scratched today with left knee injury #Knees
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Thanks Kristen!
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Coming up on the FRONT OFFICE.Marlins Dan Jennings and Dr. James Andrews we'll talk pitch counts, plasma injections and medical improvements
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David Ortiz is trying to help raise $ for marathon bombing victims by selling bats @bigpapi.com #BigPapi #RedSox #BostonStrong
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Thanks to Clint Hurdle for joining us on our show...coming up next hour...Orioles 1B Chris Davis at the top followed by Reds 3B Todd Frazier
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Thanks to ESPN 710 Los Angeles and Mark and Mychal for having me on their show today #ESPNRadio
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Mariners will be legit Wild Card contenders THIS year! http://t.co/issZIAqnVD
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Coming up on our show today guests will include: Clint Hurdle, Chris Davis, Joe Maddon and Mike Rizzo...we are INSIDE PTICH Sirius 209 XM 89
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Congrats to Taryn Griffey, daughter of Ken Jr on decision to play her collegiate basketball at the University of Arizona!! #Talent #Family
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Getting ready to hop on ESPN Dallas Radio 103.3 with Ian Fitzsimmons and Richard Durrett....talking Darvish, Pitch Counts #Rangers
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Bowden: Mariners will contend all season http://t.co/RDxHde8jHI
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Eric Wedge told us that Aaron Harang back is sore and will be scratched tonight and Hector Noesi will get the spot start XM 89
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Coming up on our show guests will include: Justin Masterson, Indians; Tyler Flowers White Sox & Eric Wedge Mariners Sirius 209 XM 89
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