The GM's Office by Jim Bowden: San Diego Padres
After another win in the Bronx last night, the Seattle Mariners are just a game below .500 and in second place in the AL West. This club was built on pitching and defense, and it's strong in both areas. However, with an offense that ranks 14th in the AL in runs, there are some issues.
The good news for the Mariners is that they have one of the deepest farm systems in the majors and can fix some of those problems from within via promotions and by trading some of that depth. When I look around the American League, I don't see any team that is going to run away with a wild-card berth. And while I don't think the Mariners can catch the Rangers in the AL West, I expect them to compete for a playoff spot all summer. They just need to make a few key adjustments.
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I’ll be keeping track of this season’s rookie class in this regular rookie report, monitoring their performances and possible trade stock for when the July 31 trade deadline approaches. So here are the top 15 rookies in the major leagues right now based on how they are performing this year, as well as the next 15 ranked in chart form below.
For the first installment of the rookie report, click here.
1. Shelby Miller | RHP | Stock: Up
Miller is pitching up to the expectations of a first-round pick (picked 19th in 2009). After earning a spot in the rotation out of spring training, he has posted a 3-1 record with an ERA of 1.44 and a WHIP of 0.84. Miller is a strikeout/ground ball machine. He pounds the strike zone with a 91-95 mph fastball with nasty sink and provides plenty of ground ball outs. He consistently gets ahead of batters, which sets up a devastating 12-6 curveball. He’s the early front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year.
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That being said, a glaring hole in the lineup or rotation, a weakness in the bullpen or a major injury that continues to cost the team wins cannot be ignored, and it can’t be patched up with bit players. If there’s a viable, quality solution within the organization or via trade, it must be considered. Patience then gives way to impulse. And sometimes these moves work.
Let’s look at five contending teams that had a palpable weakness entering the regular season and now are losing games because of it. Indeed, the GMs of these teams might be tempted to do something impulsive to right the ship. These five moves might actually work if they address the problems now.
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10 players likely to be traded by July 31 
For that reason, even 120 days out from the July 31 trade deadline, it isn’t at all too early to be thinking about possible trades.
Thus, here are 10 players I think will most likely be traded by July 31. Early on, GMs have identified the Miami Marlins, Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs and Minnesota Twins as the four teams most likely to be quickly out of the race, which is why this list has eight players from those teams.
1. Chase Headley | 3B
After Headley’s breakout 2012 season, the Padres and Headley engaged in a few conversations about a long-term contract. However, when Headley’s representatives compared him to Ryan Zimmerman, Evan Longoria and David Wright, the conversation quickly died. The Padres felt Headley needed to show the same production for a longer period of time than just a single season to be paid in the range of Zimmerman, Wright and Longoria. And they were right. However, Headley fractured his left thumb in spring training and is out until at least mid-April. If Padres are in the pennant race in July, they’ll keep Headley and try to sign him in the offseason. However, if they’re out of it by the end of July, then a deal is a real possibility.
Trade partners: Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs
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However, what about the prospects who did make their big league clubs? Here is my Top 10 list for the class of rookies currently in the big leagues, based on how I think they will fare this year.
1. Jedd Gyorko | 2B/3B | San Diego Padres
Gyorko can flat-out rake. He has a short stroke with a direct path to the ball. He has above-average power with consistent sweet-spot contact and tremendous plate coverage. He’s playing both second and third right now but will be the Padres’ full-time second baseman when Chase Headley returns from injury. If Headley is moved at the trade deadline, Gyorko will become the Padres’ long-term solution at third. His defense is average at second, but his bat plays and he’s my choice for NL Rookie of the Year.
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With it being Opening Day in many ballparks around the major leagues, the following are 10 guys for whom it's now or never. The 2013 season must amount to some form of success and some relative progress after two or three seasons of failure and disappointment.
Tim Lincecum | RHP | San Francisco Giants
By now the narrative on Lincecum is well-documented: the Giants’ first-round selection and 10th overall pick in the 2006 draft burst on the major league scene in 2008 and achieved rock star status in San Francisco, when he went 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA, led the league with 265 strikeouts and won the first of his two Cy Young awards. That began a run of four consecutive All-Star appearances and culminated in a World Series championship in 2010.
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Ranking the offseason for all 30 teams 
• How it improved the team for 2013, as well as the next five years.
• How it affected payroll and budgets -- both short and long term.
• How it affected team chemistry and clubhouse culture.
• How effectively needs were filled -- through free agency, trade or farm system.
• The amount of money committed compared with the value received.
• Aggressiveness.
With spring camp upon us, we'll see whose offseason produces the best results. Here are the rankings of all 30 teams’ offseason campaigns.
1. Toronto Blue Jays | GM: Alex Anthopoulos
Acquired: RHPs R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, LHPs Mark Buehrle, Darren Oliver, SS Jose Reyes, C's Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas, IFs Emilio Bonifacio, Maicer Izturis, OF Melky Cabrera
Analysis: Anthopoulos had a tremendous offseason, making two of the biggest offseason trades in baseball history. It cost him some prospects, and when the dust settled the Blue Jays added three top-of-the-rotation starters to complement Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow to give the Jays the best five-man rotation in the division -- on paper. They now have the veteran leadership, speed, energy and enthusiasm to be a legitimate World Series contender.
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In early December 2011, the San Diego Padres traded right-hander Mat Latos, their No. 1 starter, to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for a prospect package that included two former first-round picks and major league right-hander Edinson Volquez.
While the Padres don’t stand to get the same return on third baseman Chase Headley, they should seriously think about trading Headley sometime during spring training. Although Headley and the Padres avoided arbitration last week by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $8.75 million, he told the media shortly after the deal was announced that he and the Padres had only one discussion about a multiyear contract and that the two sides were so far apart it wasn’t even worth having another discussion. So they concentrated on the one-year deal.
Right now, the free agent and arbitration markets are at an all-time high. With third basemen such as David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria already signed to long-term deals, Headley’s trade value is the best among the third baseman who could be available.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize the small-market Padres might not be able to afford a long-term extension, and if they can't sign him they should trade him now.
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Best fits, predictions for remaining FAs 
In about a month, pitchers and catchers will be reporting for spring training, and yet several significant free agents remain unemployed. Some were even once thought to be among the best in this offseason’s free agent class, but because of bad timing, trades or teams’ reluctance to part with draft picks, the lucrative contracts these players were seeking simply haven’t materialized.
Here are the best players left on the free agent market, as well as where they fit best and a prediction of where I think they will sign.
1. Michael Bourn | CF
The center fielder market collapsed pretty quickly for the best leadoff hitter and defensive center fielder in this year’s free agent market when the three NL East teams with obvious holes in center field filled their needs right out of the chute: The Washington Nationals traded with the Minnesota Twins for Denard Span. Then the Atlanta Braves signed B.J. Upton to a five-year, $75 million deal. Soon after, the Philadelphia Phillies acquired Ben Revere from the Twins.
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Differing GM styles slowing trade market 
However, this offseason, Towers has been in the middle of as many trade talks as any general manager in baseball. And yet, he saw no results, which forced him to tiptoe into free agency, inking right-hander Brandon McCarthy to a two-year contract last week.
At the winter meetings, Towers was reminiscing with me about the good old days when GMs actually had trade talks one club at a time, trying to make deals just GM to GM. He remembered when he used to make deals on cocktail napkins at the bar of the winter meetings that would quickly be consummated the next day.
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American League
Baltimore Orioles
Player: Brian Matusz, LHP
Reason: There are several teams that believe what Matusz did in relief for the Orioles down the stretch he can also do in the starting rotation if given another opportunity. The Orioles want a corner guy/DH, and they might have to use Matusz to fill that hole.
Possible trade partners: Mets, Padres, Indians, Cubs
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Steve Mitchell/US PresswireDavid Wright is the face of the Mets, but it's feasible that he could be somewhere else next season.However, Wright’s long-term future in New York is hardly guaranteed.
First, discussions between Wright’s agents -- Sam and Seth Levinson -- and the Mets have been slow and grinding. Most negotiations with this team usually plod along, but the Mets also have shown the same cavalier attitude they demonstrated in the failed Jose Reyes negotiations in 2011. Not a good sign.
Second, for those who think the Mets won’t let the face of the franchise walk away, remember that current Mets general manager Sandy Alderson is the one who said goodbye to future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman while in San Diego. Alderson also allowed then-Padres manager Bruce Bochy to depart for the NL West rival San Francisco Giants, where he would go on to win two World Series titles. In 1992, Alderson also traded Jose Canseco to the Texas Rangers in a blockbuster that was headlined by Ruben Sierra. Arguably the best trade of Alderson’s career might end up being the swap of All-Star outfielder Carlos Beltran to the Giants at the July 2011 trade deadline for top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler, who should join the Mets’ starting rotation in 2013.
Needless to say, Alderson isn't afraid to trade star players.
That said, I still think the Mets and Wright will have a news conference sometime between now and the winter meetings next month in Nashville, Tenn., to announce a seven-year extension in the range of $18 million per season. If the Mets aren’t willing to commit, they don’t need to worry because most other teams will be. To trade Wright, the assignee club would have to ask for a window to sign him first because no team will fork over top prospects to the Mets without the assurance that Wright will sign a long-term deal.
Just in case the negotiations fall apart with the Mets, here are five trade partners that would make sense for Alderson.
1. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have money off the books after trading Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Adrian Gonzalez to the Los Angeles Dodgers in August. Wright’s swing would be ideal for Fenway Park, and he would instantly change the culture with his leadership ability. He would give the Red Sox a new, fresh franchise face to go with Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz. The discussion by Alderson would have to start with young third-base prospect Will Middlebrooks and one of Boston's top starting pitching prospects, such as Allen Webster, who recently was acquired from the Dodgers, or Matt Barnes, the Red Sox’s first-round selection in 2011 out of the University of Connecticut.
2. Los Angeles Angels
This conversation would have to commence with top first-base prospect C.J. Cron, a middle-of-the-lineup bat who was the Angels’ first-round selection in the 2011 draft out of the University of Utah. Cron possesses incredible power and has a chance to be an impact bat with the ability to drive in 100 runs. The second player in the deal would have to be fleet-footed outfielder Peter Bourjos, who became expendable with the emergence of Mike Trout. Bourjos has Gold Glove defensive ability with special range. However, how much he’s going to hit is still debatable. Of course, with a deal like this, the Mets would then have to try to trade incumbent first baseman Ike Davis for another need.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have tremendous depth in young starting pitchers. The roll call is impressive: Tyler Skaggs, Trevor Cahill, Patrick Corbin, Daniel Hudson, Wade Miley and Ian Kennedy. Therefore, they might be willing to make former No. 1 pick Trevor Bauer available for Wright, especially given that some of the Arizona field staff is frustrated with Bauer’s stubbornness and work plan.
Bauer has struggled with his command and control in the zone, and it might take time before he reaches his full, unlimited potential. To acquire an arm of this caliber and team it with Matt Harvey and Wheeler would establish an impressive young rotation capable of competing with the Washington Nationals’ elite young starters. The Mets should ask for a second player, as well, possibly center fielder Adam Eaton, a player who’s not blessed with special tools but can hit and really play the game with blue-collar grittiness.
4. Kansas City Royals
The Royals could use a veteran leader in the clubhouse to develop all of their great young players such as Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez and Alex Gordon. Wright would bring them that leadership. Alderson could start the conversation asking for young third baseman Mike Moustakas, who could give the Mets a minimum of 20 home runs and 80 RBIs at third base for minimal cost.
However, a second player in the deal would be the key. Although Kansas City can’t afford to trade any of its top young pitching prospects or top position prospect Wil Myers (unless it was getting front-line pitching back), the Royals might be willing to include Cheslor Cuthbert or 2010 first-rounder Christian Colon to make a deal like this. However, given that the Royals’ only real need is starting pitching, it is doubtful they would want to spend this type of money -- or trade this kind of talent -- on anything but starting pitching.
5. Texas Rangers
I know this does not look like a fit because the Rangers already have the best overall third baseman in baseball in Adrian Beltre. However, if Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli leave in free agency, Texas will have to add another impact bat for the middle of its lineup. The Rangers have never been afraid to ask players to change positions -- just ask Michael Young -- so it’s probably worth making the phone call to see whether they would consider a Mike Olt, Derek Holland and Craig Gentry type of deal for Wright. Olt would solve third base; Holland would improve the rotation; and Gentry would give them a tremendous defensive center fielder with blazing speed and a bat that is still developing.
To be sure, the possibility of any of these five trade ideas actually coming to fruition is slim. Indeed, 98 percent of all deals that are discussed are never made, but the Mets must do their due diligence and Alderson must do himself that favor and explore all possibilities to maximize Wright’s value and price tag. If Wright’s value is highest by returning to the Mets -- and I think he'll re-sign when all is said and done -- you can count on that price tag to be in the neighborhood of seven years and $126 million.
And for Mets fans, who can’t stand the thought of the face of their favorite franchise in another uniform, that’s a bargain.
Teams set for quick turnarounds in 2013 
As the pennant races come down the stretch, many teams already have set their sights on 2013. There are three that stand out to me as poised to make a quick turnaround. In fact, two of the three teams won their division in 2011, and all three have set themselves up well -- whether by acquiring players or jettisoning them at the July 31 trade deadline -- for 2013. With just a couple of additional pieces, as well as some star players returning to form and a precocious prospect or two, these three teams will be in the postseason hunt next year.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona’s 94-68 record and NL West title in 2011 were driven mainly by MVP candidate Justin Upton and Cy Young Award candidate Ian Kennedy. Only a year later, however, both have struggled mightily. Arizona might not even finish .500, leaving management no recourse but to retool. As such, the left side of the infield has been traded, with Ryan Roberts sent to the Tampa Bay Rays and Stephen Drew to the Oakland Athletics. But that retooling also has left the Diamondbacks in great position to jump right back in the race in 2013.
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Even with the minor league season ending, the education of some top prospects will continue. Whether their big league clubs are in the pennant race or looking toward next year, the opportunity to learn at the big league level exists -- if they get called up. Of course, because of concerns about roster limits, service time and starting arbitration and free-agent clocks, some of these clubs won't promote the players even though they deserve it. But considering the success these 10 players have had this season as well as the impact they could have on their teams, it's time to bring them up.
Billy Hamilton, SS
Hamilton broke Vince Coleman’s pro baseball record of 145 stolen bases in a single season last week. He’s got 149 and counting between high Class A and Double-A. Despite that, the Reds are leaning away from bringing up Hamilton due to roster and service-time issues. And even if he is brought up, he probably won’t get a chance to play much in the final month of the season with the Reds in the heat of a pennant race. However, a call-up before Aug. 31 is important so that he is postseason-eligible.
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Trades that should've happened but didn't 
It was one of the busiest July 31 non-waiver trade deadlines in recent memory, but what about a handful of trades that did not happen but should have? These were deals that made a lot of sense, even perhaps got discussed between teams, yet never materialized. They could be the one deal that makes the difference between the postseason and sitting at home this fall.
Here are five trades that should have happened but didn't. But who knows? They might still have a chance of happening in August or the offseason.
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- JimBowdenESPNxm JIM BOWDEN
Thanks to Huston Street, Scott Feldman and Ken Rosenthal for joining us on our show today #InsidePItch @JimBowdenESPNxm @CaseyStern
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My colleague at ESPN @C_Singleton is working with @Trouty20 for charity and you can meet Mike Trout and Chris here: : http://t.co/BV4AGwJWNb
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Thanks to Zach and Rammer from ESPN St. Louis Radio for having me on their show today!
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Coming up on INSIDE PITCH...Padres closer Huston Street Sirius 209 XM 89
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Dodgers reinstate Ted Lilly and option Matt MaGill according to Dodgers
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Should the Angels DL Albert Pujols & get his left plantar facitis & right knee healthy? and give him a chance to have a Pujols like 2nd 1/2?
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Cubs starter Scott Feldman joins us right now Sirius 209 XM 89
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Dr. James Andrews told us on the Front Office that in his professional opinion 120 should be the pitch limit for starting pitchers #PHealth
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Jurrickson Profar .278/.370/.438 7 2B 2 3B 4 HR 27 R 19 RBI....Profar could be in big leagues in ProNEAR time #Rangers
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Andrew McCutchen scratched today with a right knee injury; Aramis Ramriez scratched today with left knee injury #Knees
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Thanks Kristen!
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Coming up on the FRONT OFFICE.Marlins Dan Jennings and Dr. James Andrews we'll talk pitch counts, plasma injections and medical improvements
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David Ortiz is trying to help raise $ for marathon bombing victims by selling bats @bigpapi.com #BigPapi #RedSox #BostonStrong
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Thanks to Clint Hurdle for joining us on our show...coming up next hour...Orioles 1B Chris Davis at the top followed by Reds 3B Todd Frazier
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Thanks to ESPN 710 Los Angeles and Mark and Mychal for having me on their show today #ESPNRadio
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Mariners will be legit Wild Card contenders THIS year! http://t.co/issZIAqnVD
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Coming up on our show today guests will include: Clint Hurdle, Chris Davis, Joe Maddon and Mike Rizzo...we are INSIDE PTICH Sirius 209 XM 89
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Congrats to Taryn Griffey, daughter of Ken Jr on decision to play her collegiate basketball at the University of Arizona!! #Talent #Family
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Getting ready to hop on ESPN Dallas Radio 103.3 with Ian Fitzsimmons and Richard Durrett....talking Darvish, Pitch Counts #Rangers
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Bowden: Mariners will contend all season http://t.co/RDxHde8jHI
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