The GM's Office by Jim Bowden: New York Yankees
Sparky Anderson once told me he didn’t believe in anything he saw on the field until June 1. Only after two months of baseball could he have confidence a player or team’s performance was legitimate.
With June just around the corner, there are several teams and players who I believe and don’t believe in. Last week I wrote about how the Seattle Mariners have what it takes to contend all season. Then Monday I wrote about how the Cleveland Indians can’t even be considered as a wild-card contender unless they acquire more pitching help. In that same vein, here are five other performances I think will either hold up for the rest of the season or won’t.
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Teams entered the offseason flush with cash and spent prodigiously. Outfielder Josh Hamilton was the best position player, while B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn followed not far behind. Right-hander Zack Greinke was clearly the top free-agent pitcher available. All together, the four top free agents signed multiyear contracts worth close to $300 million.
And what do those teams have to show for it? The trio of outfielders has hit a combined .205 with a paltry nine home runs, five stolen bases and 93 strikeouts. Greinke added a lone win and a broken collarbone.
Conversely, there are a number of lower-priced free agents who are more than earning their paychecks. Since the top four free agents haven’t lived up to their usual performance levels, which free agents have been the best bargains in baseball so far? Here’s a ranking of the top 10 so far:
Note: Performance to date, salary and long-term commitment were all considered for this ranking.
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With it being Opening Day in many ballparks around the major leagues, the following are 10 guys for whom it's now or never. The 2013 season must amount to some form of success and some relative progress after two or three seasons of failure and disappointment.
Tim Lincecum | RHP | San Francisco Giants
By now the narrative on Lincecum is well-documented: the Giants’ first-round selection and 10th overall pick in the 2006 draft burst on the major league scene in 2008 and achieved rock star status in San Francisco, when he went 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA, led the league with 265 strikeouts and won the first of his two Cy Young awards. That began a run of four consecutive All-Star appearances and culminated in a World Series championship in 2010.
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With Friday’s news of right-hander Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers agreeing to a record-setting contract, the drama of whether baseball’s best pitcher would see free agency in two years came to an end.
Some could say it was predictable in a sense. After all, the Tigers would look extremely foolhardy to allow Verlander to walk via free agency after his current contract expires after 2014. Saying Verlander was going to sign an extension at some point isn’t going out very far on that proverbial limb. It’s just not a bold prediction.
So, what craziness could happen in 2013? With Opening Day just around the corner, here are my 10 bold predictions for the 2013 baseball season:
1. New York Yankees finish last in AL East.
It hasn’t happened in 22 years, since the Yankees finished 67-95 and seven games in back of the Milwaukee Brewers, but the Yankees could very easily go from first in 2012 to worst in 2013. And, with the American League’s largest payroll, there is additional pressure to win in addition to their own high standards of success.
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Until then, the WBC is a welcome alternative. It’s been a relative success internationally, underscored in 2009, when each game averaged 2 million viewers. Japan won both the 2006 and 2009 tournaments, while the United States, which has arguably the best collection of players in the world, has not fared well in the WBC mainly because so many players decline invitations to participate.
Their reasons for not playing are varied and justified to a certain degree. Money plays a part; Justin Verlander isn’t participating for fear of injury during contract negotiations; Jurickson Profar is focused on making the Texas Rangers. If Profar plays in the WBC, it could mean the difference between making the team or not and receiving a big league paycheck or not. Mike Trout simply thought he needed a full spring training to be prepared for the regular season.
On the other hand, Russell Martin’s cavalier withdrawal from Team Canada because they wouldn't let him play shortstop illustrates the somewhat lax attitude many MLB players have toward the tournament. Martin’s actions essentially mock the WBC. Team USA has been guilty of this; they simply do not take the same amount of pride in the tournament as other countries such as Japan, Cuba, South Korea, Venezuela and the Dominican Republic. Sure, it's not the Olympics, but those countries seem to better understand the honor and privilege of representing one’s country.
However, if the World Baseball Classic is to reach its potential and help the sport open doors to new revenues and audiences, we need to change the culture and attitude regarding major league players’ participation. For this to happen, baseball must make participation mandatory by all healthy players, just as it does for the All-Star Game. It should become part of the player uniform contract as well as the collective bargaining agreement.
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Baseball is a results-oriented business. Players who do not produce do not last long. Some young players, however, are afforded more time and multiple chances to establish themselves because of the potential they’ve shown or their formidable physical skills. Others are veterans clinging to roster spots -- trying to prove they’re not washed up -- or injured players trying to re-establish themselves as starters.
For the following 10 players, spring is the start of a make-or-break season. If they succeed, they stave off critics and age for another season. If they don’t, this could be their last in the major leagues.
1. Michael Young | 3B | Veteran trying to prove he’s not in decline
At 36, Young is coming off his worst offensive year in more than a decade, hitting just .277/.312/.370 with 27 doubles and eight home runs. The Rangers couldn’t promise him a full-time role in 2013, so Young waived his trade veto rights to become Philadelphia’s everyday third baseman. Young served primarily as the Rangers’ DH and super-utility player, but his range has diminished, and some scouts question if he still has the first-step quickness needed to be adequate at third base. Young is still a clubhouse leader and is just one year removed from leading the AL with 213 hits. To many baseball evaluators' eyes, it looked as if his bat was slowing down. The Phillies are hoping that’s not the case.
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Ranking the offseason for all 30 teams 
• How it improved the team for 2013, as well as the next five years.
• How it affected payroll and budgets -- both short and long term.
• How it affected team chemistry and clubhouse culture.
• How effectively needs were filled -- through free agency, trade or farm system.
• The amount of money committed compared with the value received.
• Aggressiveness.
With spring camp upon us, we'll see whose offseason produces the best results. Here are the rankings of all 30 teams’ offseason campaigns.
1. Toronto Blue Jays | GM: Alex Anthopoulos
Acquired: RHPs R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, LHPs Mark Buehrle, Darren Oliver, SS Jose Reyes, C's Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas, IFs Emilio Bonifacio, Maicer Izturis, OF Melky Cabrera
Analysis: Anthopoulos had a tremendous offseason, making two of the biggest offseason trades in baseball history. It cost him some prospects, and when the dust settled the Blue Jays added three top-of-the-rotation starters to complement Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow to give the Jays the best five-man rotation in the division -- on paper. They now have the veteran leadership, speed, energy and enthusiasm to be a legitimate World Series contender.
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In early December 2011, the San Diego Padres traded right-hander Mat Latos, their No. 1 starter, to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for a prospect package that included two former first-round picks and major league right-hander Edinson Volquez.
While the Padres don’t stand to get the same return on third baseman Chase Headley, they should seriously think about trading Headley sometime during spring training. Although Headley and the Padres avoided arbitration last week by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $8.75 million, he told the media shortly after the deal was announced that he and the Padres had only one discussion about a multiyear contract and that the two sides were so far apart it wasn’t even worth having another discussion. So they concentrated on the one-year deal.
Right now, the free agent and arbitration markets are at an all-time high. With third basemen such as David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria already signed to long-term deals, Headley’s trade value is the best among the third baseman who could be available.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize the small-market Padres might not be able to afford a long-term extension, and if they can't sign him they should trade him now.
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Yanks eye potential monster 2014 FA class 
Fans might wonder why their team, which has historically used free agency to fortify its roster, would limit spending and hold off on signing the big free agents this year and instead just bring back veterans such as Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera and Hiroki Kuroda after the Yankees’ disappointing 2012 campaign. But Cashman has been adamant to get his payroll below $189 million by 2014, and for good reason.
Most important is the Yankees’ luxury tax goes up to 50 percent for every dollar over $189 million in 2014. The Yankees are the only team in baseball in that situation, because they’ve been over the threshold limit three times in a row. If they stay under the $189 million in 2014, they won’t pay a tax that year and they get to restart their luxury tax history. By restarting that history, the tax rate reverts to just 17.5 percent the next time they exceed it, which we should all expect to be 2015.
As the Yankees get below the luxury tax threshold, Cashman will have lined up his team for a possible bonanza free-agent haul – specifically starting pitchers -- in 2014 and perhaps 2015. The timing could not be better for the Yankees over the next two years. Here are several reasons why it should surprise no one if the Yankees blitz the 2014 offseason with a major spending spree.
Best free-agent class ever?
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During my entire 15-year career in baseball as a GM and through today, commissioner Bud Selig has emphasized improving the game’s competitive balance.
He said his goal was for all 30 clubs’ fan bases to have “hope and faith” on Opening Day that their team would be able to contend for a postseason berth. However, full parity has eluded one division for more than a decade. The American League East stood as an example of how wide the chasm can be between winning and losing teams.
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Best fits, predictions for remaining FAs 
In about a month, pitchers and catchers will be reporting for spring training, and yet several significant free agents remain unemployed. Some were even once thought to be among the best in this offseason’s free agent class, but because of bad timing, trades or teams’ reluctance to part with draft picks, the lucrative contracts these players were seeking simply haven’t materialized.
Here are the best players left on the free agent market, as well as where they fit best and a prediction of where I think they will sign.
1. Michael Bourn | CF
The center fielder market collapsed pretty quickly for the best leadoff hitter and defensive center fielder in this year’s free agent market when the three NL East teams with obvious holes in center field filled their needs right out of the chute: The Washington Nationals traded with the Minnesota Twins for Denard Span. Then the Atlanta Braves signed B.J. Upton to a five-year, $75 million deal. Soon after, the Philadelphia Phillies acquired Ben Revere from the Twins.
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Cincinnati Reds
The risk: Moving Aroldis Chapman to the rotation and Shin-Soo Choo to center field
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Getting great players out of bad spots 
An emotional reaction was not a surprise and probably warranted. Shortly after the Miami Marlins' blockbuster trade of Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson to the Toronto Blue Jays in November, Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton sent out the following tweet:
@Giancarlo818: "Alright, I'm pissed off!!! Plain & Simple”
He watched as his team’s management decimated the roster for a package of prospects. Now Stanton sits in the wreckage of what used to be a team most thought would contend for the National League East Division title. Now they’ll be lucky not to lose 100 games.
Stanton has been very open about his desire to be traded, but the Marlins have control of his contract through 2016. The question now will be whether he gets his wish. If you believe the Marlins’ front office, it’s not happening.
When great players are stuck in bad situations, they must possess and display great character and intensity to perform at the same level as if they were on a contending team. Here are five examples of great players who will have to perform in bad situations in 2013, as well as a look at how these players might be able to get out of their current mess:
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The next top prospects to be traded 
It’s not very often we have an offseason in which so many of the game’s top prospects are traded, but that’s exactly what's happened this winter with the Kansas City Royals dealing Wil Myers to the Tampa Bay Rays as part of the package for starter James Shields, as well as the Toronto Blue Jays trading catcher Travis d'Arnaud to the New York Mets in a blockbuster deal for NL Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey.
So naturally all of this movement raises the question: Who will be the next highly-touted prospect to be traded?
I don’t think it will be Texas Rangers rookie Jurickson Profar, largely because the Rangers already have turned down opportunities to trade him for Shields, Dickey and Justin Upton. Nor do I think any of the following prospects will be traded: Taijuan Walker (Seattle Mariners), Gerrit Cole (Pittsburgh Pirates), Francisco Lindor (Cleveland Indians), Dylan Bundy (Baltimore Orioles).
However, we are seeing teams show a willingness to trade elite young talent, and here are seven top prospects who could be dealt in 2013 for the right starting pitcher or middle-of-the-order impact bat:
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Kevin Jairaj/US PresswireStephen Drew could solve a lot of the Yankees' problems on the left side.Even before Alex Rodriguez needed another hip surgery that is almost certain to keep him out for a huge chunk of the 2013 season, if not the full year, he was being dominated by right-handed pitching. What you saw in the playoffs wasn’t an anomaly or something new. It’s been my position going back well into last season that New York would be best served to get A-Rod into the role of designated hitter, primarily against left-handed pitching. By the time he gets back from this latest setback, A-Rod could be 38 with diminished bat speed and range. If you want to maximize him, DH is your only hope.
That said, in analyzing this from a purely baseball sense, the injury offers the Yankees a no-excuses transition point. But to whom do they transition? The obvious option here is to bring back Eric Chavez, but my sense in talking to folks is the Yankees will be looking hard at other options.
Really, there isn’t an obvious solution, not only internally but also in the free agency or trade markets. Nevertheless, I came up with five calls the Yankees could make to try to put a Band-Aid on the position in the year to come.
1. Sign Stephen Drew
Drew, a former first-round pick, has come back from his own recent injuries, but he could shift to third base and play shortstop. The Yankees will need guys who offer positional flexibility, as Derek Jeter will also be coming back from a significant injury. Drew’s career .762 OPS won’t look special to Yankees fans, but he’s a good stopgap solution for a team that should be able to score runs, and his ability to play more than one position adds value. He moves well both directions on defense and could save some runs on the left side of the infield.
2. Call the Astros about Jed Lowrie
Everybody’s favorite trade target last season before the deadline, Lowrie had put up career-best totals and was showing routine power (16 homers in 97 games) before he got injured down the stretch. Lowrie doesn’t have a great arm at third base, but he’s another guy who can play multiple positions, and Houston would certainly be willing to listen on pitches. The concern is that Lowrie, who will be 29 in April, has never managed to stay healthy himself.
3. Call the Padres about Jedd Gyorko
This is a really tough sell, and the Padres would start any conversation about Gyorko by bring up Yankees center-field prospect Mason Williams, which could make it a non-starter for New York as well. Gyorko is a solid prospect whom San Diego plans to move to second base, but after hitting .328 with 24 homers last year in Triple-A (yes, in the admittedly hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League), he’s ready for his promotion. Again, I don’t think the Padres would be willing to make the deal unless they got a lot in return, but it’s a call worth making.
4. Sign Kevin Youkilis
Purely a bandage purchase, Youkilis doesn’t have great range at third, to say the least, and he’s coming off a season in which he hit just .236. That said, Youk can still grind out at-bats and will always find ways to get on base. Despite his low average, his OBP was still .346 this past season.
5. Call the Nationals about two options
First, Yankees GM Brian Cashman could at least ask about the price for third-base prospect Anthony Rendon. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo will probably give a good laugh, but the Nats could listen. Their plan is to move Rendon to second base when he’s finally ready. If and when the Rendon idea goes nowhere, Danny Espinosa should be discussed. Espinosa is limited at the plate and strikes out way too often but offers punch from down in the lineup -- he could hit 20-plus homers in Yankee Stadium -- and can play the position.

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Believe or Don't Believe after 2 months of Play: http://t.co/issZIAqnVD
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Mike Trout when I asked him what his goals "I set my goal each year to be the best player in the league & my ultimate goal is to win a W.S."
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Justin Upton's Home Runs this year....Frequent and Far: http://t.co/KaEqXXPK0P
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Who are the next Premium Starting Pitching Prospects to look forward to? Wheeler, Wacha, Ranaudo, Gray, Taillon, and Walker....who'd I miss?
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2 months into the MLB season what to believe and what not to believe: http://t.co/cW6hB77YpJ
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Thanks to Heath Bell for joining us on our show today
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NIck Franklin at Tacoma .441 OBP .922 OPS 9 2B 4 HR 27 R 20 RBI 6 SB.....In Seattle: Ryan .262 OBP Andino .253 OBP.....#It'sTime
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Thanks to Kyle Kendrick of the Phillies for joining us on our show..coming up at the top of the hour Heath Bell of the D-Backs Sirius209XM89
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Video: Interview with GM Chris Antonetti including if they'll trade for more starting pitching: http://t.co/V1vO7LXdXd
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