The GM's Office by Jim Bowden: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Teams entered the offseason flush with cash and spent prodigiously. Outfielder Josh Hamilton was the best position player, while B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn followed not far behind. Right-hander Zack Greinke was clearly the top free-agent pitcher available. All together, the four top free agents signed multiyear contracts worth close to $300 million.
And what do those teams have to show for it? The trio of outfielders has hit a combined .205 with a paltry nine home runs, five stolen bases and 93 strikeouts. Greinke added a lone win and a broken collarbone.
Conversely, there are a number of lower-priced free agents who are more than earning their paychecks. Since the top four free agents haven’t lived up to their usual performance levels, which free agents have been the best bargains in baseball so far? Here’s a ranking of the top 10 so far:
Note: Performance to date, salary and long-term commitment were all considered for this ranking.
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SoCal fans just watched as the Lakers and Clippers got bounced out of the NBA playoffs in the first round, while the Dodgers and Angels have looked like they might not even make the playoffs.
Coming into 2013, both Los Angeles baseball teams boasted the largest payrolls in their respective divisions, hoping big offseason spending meant getting to the postseason. And on paper, their rosters are good enough to make the playoffs. However, both teams have been beset by injury and ineffectiveness, and as a result, postseason appearances are hardly assured. However, it’s not too late for the L.A. teams to save their seasons, although both clubs will have to make some major adjustments between now and the July 31 trade deadline.
Here’s why both the Angels and Dodgers are struggling and how they can turn their seasons around:
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That being said, a glaring hole in the lineup or rotation, a weakness in the bullpen or a major injury that continues to cost the team wins cannot be ignored, and it can’t be patched up with bit players. If there’s a viable, quality solution within the organization or via trade, it must be considered. Patience then gives way to impulse. And sometimes these moves work.
Let’s look at five contending teams that had a palpable weakness entering the regular season and now are losing games because of it. Indeed, the GMs of these teams might be tempted to do something impulsive to right the ship. These five moves might actually work if they address the problems now.
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With it being Opening Day in many ballparks around the major leagues, the following are 10 guys for whom it's now or never. The 2013 season must amount to some form of success and some relative progress after two or three seasons of failure and disappointment.
Tim Lincecum | RHP | San Francisco Giants
By now the narrative on Lincecum is well-documented: the Giants’ first-round selection and 10th overall pick in the 2006 draft burst on the major league scene in 2008 and achieved rock star status in San Francisco, when he went 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA, led the league with 265 strikeouts and won the first of his two Cy Young awards. That began a run of four consecutive All-Star appearances and culminated in a World Series championship in 2010.
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How does a veteran pitcher post a 16-3 record last season and not have a job just two weeks away from Opening Day?
Such is the plight of right-hander Kyle Lohse. The Scott Boras client remains jobless and the market for him is razor thin. With teams steadfastly refusing to surrender a draft pick in order to sign Lohse, there lurks the real possibility that Lohse could be without a team for a long time, well after Opening Day.
How long? It could be June before he has a job -- after the MLB first-year player draft. And part of the reason is the new collective bargaining agreement.
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MESA, Ariz. -- It’s telling that the Chicago Cubs leapt 10 places in ESPN.com’s Future Power Rankings, jumping from 16th to sixth in only one season. Both the major-league club and farm system saw significant additions, but that won’t stop another last-place finish.
Most evaluators at the Cubs' big-league camp are praising the tools and bat speed of prospects Javier Baez, Junior Lake and Jorge Soler. Baez has ridiculous bat speed but also a late cocking motion in his swing that has to be corrected as he heads up the development ladder. Lake has tremendous power but huge holes in the zone. Soler’s power and presence is reminiscent of Frank Thomas.
After watching their at-bats and batting practice, however, I think all three have some “hit” tool issues. Odds are one of them never pans out and follows Corey Patterson and Felix Pie as Cubs prospects who failed to live up to the fans’ often unrealistic expectations. The one prospect who does look like slam dunk isn’t even in big-league camp -- center fielder Albert Almora. He was the Cubs’ first-round selection in last year’s draft and looks like a future All-Star.
However, the Cubs' best prospect might not even be a player. Vice President of Player Development and Scouting Jason McLeod is one of the best evaluators in the sport. McLeod’s history of successful drafts in Boston, San Diego and now the Cubs make him one of the top GM prospects in the game of baseball.
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Until then, the WBC is a welcome alternative. It’s been a relative success internationally, underscored in 2009, when each game averaged 2 million viewers. Japan won both the 2006 and 2009 tournaments, while the United States, which has arguably the best collection of players in the world, has not fared well in the WBC mainly because so many players decline invitations to participate.
Their reasons for not playing are varied and justified to a certain degree. Money plays a part; Justin Verlander isn’t participating for fear of injury during contract negotiations; Jurickson Profar is focused on making the Texas Rangers. If Profar plays in the WBC, it could mean the difference between making the team or not and receiving a big league paycheck or not. Mike Trout simply thought he needed a full spring training to be prepared for the regular season.
On the other hand, Russell Martin’s cavalier withdrawal from Team Canada because they wouldn't let him play shortstop illustrates the somewhat lax attitude many MLB players have toward the tournament. Martin’s actions essentially mock the WBC. Team USA has been guilty of this; they simply do not take the same amount of pride in the tournament as other countries such as Japan, Cuba, South Korea, Venezuela and the Dominican Republic. Sure, it's not the Olympics, but those countries seem to better understand the honor and privilege of representing one’s country.
However, if the World Baseball Classic is to reach its potential and help the sport open doors to new revenues and audiences, we need to change the culture and attitude regarding major league players’ participation. For this to happen, baseball must make participation mandatory by all healthy players, just as it does for the All-Star Game. It should become part of the player uniform contract as well as the collective bargaining agreement.
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Ranking the offseason for all 30 teams 
• How it improved the team for 2013, as well as the next five years.
• How it affected payroll and budgets -- both short and long term.
• How it affected team chemistry and clubhouse culture.
• How effectively needs were filled -- through free agency, trade or farm system.
• The amount of money committed compared with the value received.
• Aggressiveness.
With spring camp upon us, we'll see whose offseason produces the best results. Here are the rankings of all 30 teams’ offseason campaigns.
1. Toronto Blue Jays | GM: Alex Anthopoulos
Acquired: RHPs R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, LHPs Mark Buehrle, Darren Oliver, SS Jose Reyes, C's Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas, IFs Emilio Bonifacio, Maicer Izturis, OF Melky Cabrera
Analysis: Anthopoulos had a tremendous offseason, making two of the biggest offseason trades in baseball history. It cost him some prospects, and when the dust settled the Blue Jays added three top-of-the-rotation starters to complement Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow to give the Jays the best five-man rotation in the division -- on paper. They now have the veteran leadership, speed, energy and enthusiasm to be a legitimate World Series contender.
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In early December 2011, the San Diego Padres traded right-hander Mat Latos, their No. 1 starter, to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for a prospect package that included two former first-round picks and major league right-hander Edinson Volquez.
While the Padres don’t stand to get the same return on third baseman Chase Headley, they should seriously think about trading Headley sometime during spring training. Although Headley and the Padres avoided arbitration last week by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $8.75 million, he told the media shortly after the deal was announced that he and the Padres had only one discussion about a multiyear contract and that the two sides were so far apart it wasn’t even worth having another discussion. So they concentrated on the one-year deal.
Right now, the free agent and arbitration markets are at an all-time high. With third basemen such as David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria already signed to long-term deals, Headley’s trade value is the best among the third baseman who could be available.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize the small-market Padres might not be able to afford a long-term extension, and if they can't sign him they should trade him now.
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The phrase “timing is everything” might be cliché, but when it comes to deciding to which young superstar he should offer a multiyear contract, a general manager’s timing must be impeccable, as is his organization's evaluation and projection of a player's ability.
Signing players to long-term extensions benefits the team for two obvious reasons: It can save money in the long run and it delays a player’s free-agent eligibility. It behooves any club with good, young non-arbitration eligible players with four or fewer years of service to try to sign its best players long-term. The further a player is from free agency, the lower the deal and the greater the discount.
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Five outfielders most likely to be traded 
With Wednesday's trade of Michael Morse from the Washington Nationals to the Seattle Mariners, one of the most likely traded outfielders came off the market. Along with Kendrys Morales and Raul Ibanez, Morse will stabilize the Mariners’ moribund lineup and offer some veteran insulation to youngsters Dustin Ackley, Kyle Seager, Jesus Montero and Justin Smoak.
However, there remain other outfielders who could be dealt, whether because of a surplus created by new acquisitions or because they simply don’t fit into their team’s long-term vision. For some teams, it will take swallowing salary, but regardless, any of these five outfielders could be wearing a different uniform by Opening Day.
Justin Upton | RF | Arizona Diamondbacks
Despite the near MVP numbers he put up in 2011 and his enormous potential, the 25-year-old Upton has been seemingly dragged through the mud by the Diamondbacks. General manager Kevin Towers has put Upton on the market three times since he joined Arizona in 2010, with the latest line thrown catching the attention of the Mariners. Upton ultimately used his limited no-trade clause to nix the trade, which could have netted top pitching prospect Taijuan Walker.
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Five offseason moves that will backfire 
Recall the saying "it seemed like a good idea at the time" and you'll be able to apply it to a number of baseball's 30 teams. Indeed, most general managers would love to call a mulligan or two during their careers. As such, the following five players are, in my opinion, the most likely to end up as someone's mulligan. Their contracts are simply more than they are worth, whether it be dollars or number of years, and thus could very easily backfire on the general manager.
1. Angel Pagan | CF | Age: 31 | San Francisco Giants
Contract: Four years, $40 million | AAV: $10 million
Giants senior vice president/general manager Brian Sabean is one of the best in the business, with two world championships in the past three years. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t make his fair share of mistakes on long-term contracts, such as Barry Zito’s seven-year, $126 million deal or Aaron Rowand’s five-year, $60 million albatross. Sabean’s history also includes being loyal to players (read: overpaying) who helped him win rings. After winning the World Series in 2010, he overpaid Aubrey Huff by re-signing him to a two-year, $20 million deal.
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Best fits, predictions for remaining FAs 
In about a month, pitchers and catchers will be reporting for spring training, and yet several significant free agents remain unemployed. Some were even once thought to be among the best in this offseason’s free agent class, but because of bad timing, trades or teams’ reluctance to part with draft picks, the lucrative contracts these players were seeking simply haven’t materialized.
Here are the best players left on the free agent market, as well as where they fit best and a prediction of where I think they will sign.
1. Michael Bourn | CF
The center fielder market collapsed pretty quickly for the best leadoff hitter and defensive center fielder in this year’s free agent market when the three NL East teams with obvious holes in center field filled their needs right out of the chute: The Washington Nationals traded with the Minnesota Twins for Denard Span. Then the Atlanta Braves signed B.J. Upton to a five-year, $75 million deal. Soon after, the Philadelphia Phillies acquired Ben Revere from the Twins.
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The next top prospects to be traded 
It’s not very often we have an offseason in which so many of the game’s top prospects are traded, but that’s exactly what's happened this winter with the Kansas City Royals dealing Wil Myers to the Tampa Bay Rays as part of the package for starter James Shields, as well as the Toronto Blue Jays trading catcher Travis d'Arnaud to the New York Mets in a blockbuster deal for NL Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey.
So naturally all of this movement raises the question: Who will be the next highly-touted prospect to be traded?
I don’t think it will be Texas Rangers rookie Jurickson Profar, largely because the Rangers already have turned down opportunities to trade him for Shields, Dickey and Justin Upton. Nor do I think any of the following prospects will be traded: Taijuan Walker (Seattle Mariners), Gerrit Cole (Pittsburgh Pirates), Francisco Lindor (Cleveland Indians), Dylan Bundy (Baltimore Orioles).
However, we are seeing teams show a willingness to trade elite young talent, and here are seven top prospects who could be dealt in 2013 for the right starting pitcher or middle-of-the-order impact bat:
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Consider the following about the American League Central:
- Its division champion, the Detroit Tigers, won just 88 games.
- It was the only five-team division with three teams with losing records.
- The second-place Chicago White Sox won 85 games despite its lowest attendance since 2004.
- The Minnesota Twins won 66 games -- actually an improvement on 63 in 2011.
- The Cleveland Indians have not had a winning record in five years.
- The Kansas City Royals last won the division in 1985.
The AL Central was the weakest division in baseball last season, and it has been for some time. The Royals haven’t had sustained success since the days of Dick Howser, George Brett and Bret Saberhagen. The Indians fired manager Manny Acta and long for the days of Mike Hargrove, Kenny Lofton and Carlos Baerga, while the Twins can’t seem to shake the injury bug.
When the best days of three of its teams are in the rearview mirror, there’s a problem.
Though it might be the weakest division in baseball, it's had arguably the strongest offseason. Each team has made significant progress toward heading back to respectability and, in the Tigers' case, perhaps back to the World Series.
Here is a quick look at how the AL Central teams have already improved this offseason:
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