The GM's Office: Boston Red Sox

What's next for the Boston Red Sox? 

November, 24, 2014
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Cole HamelsHunter Martin/Getty ImagesNext up on the Red Sox's agenda should be trading a package of prospects for Cole Hamels.
After reportedly agreeing to terms with both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, the Boston Red Sox can now turn their attention to the area of the team that has been their biggest need all along: their starting rotation.

And the signings of Sandoval and Ramirez don't hinder that, they help it.

The Sox have now positioned themselves perfectly to negotiate the biggest trade of this offseason with the Philadelphia Phillies to land left-handed starter Cole Hamels while still having enough resources for a reunion with Jon Lester or sending in the welcome wagon to James Shields.

10 bold predictions for this offseason 

November, 20, 2014
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videoMajor League Baseball's offseason is in full swing, complete with 13-year contracts, a trade including a Gold Glover and a good, young pitcher, and a key free-agent signing or two. But that's just the beginning of this wild and wooly offseason.

With that, here are 10 bold predictions I see happening in the weeks ahead:

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1. Jon Lester re-signs with the Boston Red Sox

Most analysts think Lester has pitched his last game for the Red Sox. … I'm not one of them. I think the Chicago Cubs will offer the most years (six) and dollars, but a return to Boston for fewer years (five) and less money is my prediction. The Red Sox desperately need a top-of-rotation starter and won't be a legitimate contender unless they get one. Lester was happy in Boston, and unless the Cubs blow the Sox's offer away, I think that's where he lands.


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2. Marlins sign James Shields

The Marlins shocked the baseball world with the signing of Giancarlo Stanton to a 13-year deal, and they'll do it again by landing a top-of-rotation starter.

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Four potential trades for Cole Hamels 

November, 16, 2014
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Cole HamelsAP Photo/John BazemoreMany teams would love to have Cole Hamels, but four teams have the best chance to get him.
The Phillies' rebuilding program really won't commence until they deal their most valuable asset, left-handed starting pitcher Cole Hamels, who is also the most valuable player on the trade market right now.

The Phillies probably will have to wait until free agents Max Scherzer and Jon Lester have found new homes before they find the right trade partner, but that won't stop Phillies GM Ruben Amaro from laying the groundwork between now and then. Hamels, 30, is one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball and is coming off another sensational year (6.6 WAR, 2.46 ERA, 3.07 FIP and 1.15 WHIP in 30 starts). His contract is also club-friendly, with four years remaining at a fair market value of $22.5 million per season.

One of the problems the Phillies have to deal with, however, is Hamels has 20 teams on his no-trade list, which leaves just nine teams. He might be willing to waive it for certain clubs, especially if they agree to pick up his option year or if he is given some type of assignment bonus, but the Phillies also have a limited market of teams that both can afford to take on Hamels' contract and have the top prospects to send back in this magnitude of a deal.

Although there are other possibilities, the Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers and Red Sox are probably the four teams that match up the best with the Phillies.

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What's next for the Boston Red Sox? 

July, 31, 2014
Jul 31
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John Lackey, Jon Lester Jared Wickerham/Getty ImagesThe Red Sox still have work to do following the John Lackey and Jon Lester trades to retool for 2015.
The Boston Red Sox didn't trade Jon Lester and John Lackey on Thursday with a "rebuild" in mind.

Given its core of veteran talent, this is not a team that needs to rebuild. Instead, Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington's objective in trading Lester and Jonny Gomes to the Oakland Athletics for Yoenis Cespedes and Oakland's competitive balance draft pick, and then trading Lackey to the Cardinals for Allen Craig and Joe Kelly, is to retool and get back to competing for a division title next year. That's what management and Red Sox fans expect.

And frankly, I think he did a phenomenal job doing that.

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Trade deadline objectives: AL East 

July, 28, 2014
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Dan Duquette and Buck ShowalterAP Photo/Gene J. PuskarOrioles GM Dan Duquette made multiple trades before the 2012 and 2013 trade deadlines.
Deadline objectives: NL East | NL Central | NL West | AL East | AL Central | AL West

It's looking like the AL East could become quite a race, with two teams (the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees) being within four games of the division-leading Baltimore Orioles, with the fourth-place Tampa Bay Rays having won nine of their past 10 games. Only the last-place Boston Red Sox check in as potential sellers, though we're not quite sure what the Rays will do at this point.

With that, let's have a look at the AL East deadline objectives:

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Jake Peavy Ronald Martinez/Getty ImagesJake Peavy could provide a boost on the back end of a contender's rotation.
Throughout July, Jim Bowden will look at a number of high-profile trade candidates and explain what it would take for certain clubs to acquire each player.

Player: Jake Peavy | SP | Boston Red Sox

Possible destinations: Milwaukee Brewers, Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals

Peavy was traded July 30, 2013, in a three-team trade that sent Avisail Garcia from the Tigers to the White Sox, Jose Iglesias from the Red Sox to the Tigers, and Peavy to the Red Sox. Peavy's value has since dipped, and not just because he’s another year older. His ERA is a full run higher than his career mark, and his WHIP is the highest it has been since his 2002 rookie campaign. His average fastball velocity has dropped from 90 to 89 mph, and the rest of his offerings have diminished as well.

His 1-8 record in 19 starts can be partly explained by a lack of run support and a defense that has been poor at times. But the bottom line is it has been a subpar year by Peavy's standards.

However, because of his competitiveness and winning attitude, Peavy could rebound in the second half and help a contending team at the back of their rotation. To acquire Peavy, the trade cost will be significantly less than it was this time last year, but the Red Sox should still be able to land a solid, albeit not top, prospect.


Milwaukee Brewers

Why? The Brewers are pleased with the top four in their starting rotation, Kyle Lohse, Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta and Matt Garza. However, their fifth starter has struggled mightily; Marco Estrada was demoted to the bullpen, and rookie Jimmy Nelson has not looked good after two starts. Peavy would provide an immediate upgrade there.

Who? The Red Sox will probably start by asking for one of their top outfield prospects in Mitch Haniger or Tyrone Taylor, an offer I expect GM Doug Melvin to politely decline. However, power-hitting outfielder Victor Roache, the Brewers' first-round pick in the 2012 draft, might be enough to get it done. Roache has hit 33 home runs and driven in 107 runs in his first two years of professional ball, but he has struggled to get on base consistently (.307 career OBP). He's a project, but he's worth taking a chance on, given his power potential.

Will it happen? There's a good chance this could happen, especially because the Braves seem to have lost interest and the Cardinals and Mariners appear to be chasing a higher-level starter.


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Alex RiosAP Photo/Carlos OsorioAlex Rios leads the American League with eight triples this season.
Over the course of July, Jim Bowden will be looking at a number of high-profile trade candidates and explain what it would take for certain clubs to acquire that player.

Player: Alex Rios | RF | Texas Rangers
Possible destinations: Kansas City Royals, Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox


Kansas City Royals

Why? The Royals are last in the AL Central in runs scored and have had very little offensive production from right fielder Norichika Aoki, who has yet to hit a home run and has a .326 OBP. Rios hasn't hit for much power either (just three homers), but he's hitting .304 and has more upside -- and a better track record -- than Aoki, who would be better off as a fourth outfielder.

Who? The Rangers should be satisfied by getting approximately $6 million off the books for the rest of the season, as well as the $1 million buyout on Rios' 2015 team option ($13.5 million).

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Rookie Rankings: Tanaka dominating 

June, 20, 2014
Jun 20
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 Masahiro TanakaAP Photo/Kathy WillensIt's been all thumbs up for Masahiro Tanaka this season.
As we near the halfway point in the season, a dozen rookies are having impact upon their pennant-chasing teams thus far. Let's look at my latest rankings and assess the best of the 2014 rookie class.

1. Masahiro Tanaka | RHP | New York Yankees
If the season ended today, Tanaka would win both the AL Cy Young Award and the AL Rookie of the Year Award. I also expect him to start the All-Star Game for the American League if he continues to pitch at this level. Tanaka has been brilliant -- his split-fingered fastball already is the best in the sport, and his late life and command is special, especially when coupled with his vastly underrated secondary pitches.

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With the season's first month in the books, rookies have quickly had significant impact on their teams. The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals have new top-of-the-rotation rookie starters, the Atlanta Braves and Seattle Mariners are enjoying pleasant surprises in the back of their rotations, while the rookie shortstops of the Boston Red Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks are holding their own.

Once again, I'll be keeping track of this season's rookie class every month, which will be based on performance, scouting reports, advanced metrics, the players' actual development reports from the teams' general managers, managers and front office executives, as well as input from teammates and coaches who will comment on the players' intangibles from inside the clubhouses.

Without further delay, here are my top 10 rookies after the first month of the 2014 season. (Note: When I say a player's stock is "up" or "down," I'm referring to my expectations of him coming into the season.)

1. Masahiro Tanaka | RHP | Stock: Up
Tanaka went 24-0 for Japan's Rakuten Golden Eagles last season and has continued his undefeated streak here in the United States.

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Five players who benefit from non-moves 

January, 26, 2014
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Will MiddlebrooksRon Chenoy/USA TODAY SportsWill Middlebrooks will get a lot more at-bats if Stephen Drew isn't around.
General managers use the offseason to improve their team at various positions via free agency, trades and waiver claims. Some of these moves are significant upgrades, others are slight improvements.

Yet some general managers simply aren’t able to improve a position because they don’t match up well enough to get a trade done with the other clubs, or they don’t have enough money in their budget to persuade free agents to sign with them.

When this happens, a number of players get second chances or an opportunity to win the job in spring training. Here are five players who might benefit this season because their teams didn’t make a move:


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Elite pitchers set for big 2015 paydays 

January, 21, 2014
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Max ScherzerLeon Halip/Getty ImagesClayton Kershaw's contract could lead to a $200 million payday for Max Scherzer next winter.
Clayton Kershaw's seven-year, $215 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers has set the ceiling for next offseason's free-agent starting pitching market. This is a significant event for a market that’s seen record-breaking deals for almost every top-tier pitching free agent over the past several years.

While the 2015 free-agent class is light on position players, it has plenty of elite pitchers, led by Max Scherzer, James Shields, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson and Homer Bailey. None of them are expected to top Kershaw's deal; it probably will be the next generation of Jose Fernandez, Stephen Strasburg and Matt Harvey to do that.

Nonetheless, Scherzer, Shields, Lester, Masterson and Bailey should all benefit from Kershaw and his agent, Casey Close, eclipsing the $30 million bar because that will only bring their deals closer to that threshold. Here is a quick look at the top of next year's free-agent starting pitching class with my early contract predictions and the chances of each pitcher leaving his current team:




1. Max Scherzer, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Predicted contract:
Seven years, $196 million ($28M average annual value)

As soon as Kershaw closed his deal with the Dodgers, Scherzer quickly became the No. 1 starting pitcher expected to hit the free-agent market next November.

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The missing link for every AL team 

January, 15, 2014
Jan 15
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Matt Garza AP Photo/Colin E. BraleyIf the Los Angeles Angels lose out on Masahiro Tanaka, they should go after Matt Garza.
On Tuesday, I focused on the missing piece for every National League team heading in to spring training, and today we turn our attention to the American League.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

Houston Astros

Missing link: Pitching prospects
Solution: Trade 3B Matt Dominguez for prospects
The Astros are doing a masterful job of following the blueprint of general manager Jeff Luhnow, building through the draft and player development while mixing in a few veteran free agents who will have some trade value at the deadline.

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BeltranAP Photo/John MinchilloWith FAs like Carlos Beltran, it will be tough for the Yankees to stay below the tax threshold.
Some big free-agent names were signed over the holiday season, but that doesn't mean the market is dried up. With many teams waiting on the final destination of Japanese free agent Masahiro Tanaka, several quality free-agent pitchers remain, as well as some trade possibilities.

Plenty of big moves are still likely to come. So, here are my 10 bold predictions of the rest of the offseason. Not all are personnel related, but most will have significant impact on teams or the game itself.

1. New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels go over the luxury-tax threshold
The Yankees have worked hard over the last couple of seasons to try and keep their payroll below $189 million dollars for this season, and the Angels have worked diligently this offseason to do the same.

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10 moves that still need to happen 

December, 17, 2013
12/17/13
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Matt Garza, C.J. WilsonGetty ImagesMatt Garza might look pretty good in the Angels' rotation with C.J. Wilson.
This has been a wild offseason so far, with blockbuster trades and free-agent signings taking place even before we got to Orlando for the Winter Meetings. Yet, with two weeks left in 2013, the free-agent and trade markets still have a lot of unfinished business.

As I look around the league, I can see 10 more moves that make a lot of sense and should to get done for their teams to remain viable contenders for 2014. Let's take a look:

1. Los Angeles Angels | Move: Sign free-agent RHP Matt Garza

The Angels have worked hard

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Teams best-positioned for the offseason 

November, 4, 2013
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David FreeseRichard Mackson,USA TODAY SportsThe Cardinals' depth would allow them to trade David Freese in the offseason.
In the offseason, teams bid for the same free agents, try to negotiate trades for many of the same players, and even vie for the same players in December’s Rule 5 draft at the annual winter meetings. However, that doesn’t mean the teams are on a level playing field as they compete for those players. Some teams will have definite advantages going into the offseason, and not simply because of financial wherewithal.

Indeed, the teams that are best-positioned for the offseason already have gone to great lengths to ensure they have trade assets on their major league rosters and in their farm systems as well as adequate money to spend on free agents. And these teams usually feature a general manager who’s ready to wheel and deal. The teams that have this positioning usually are the ones that are playing deep into October.

On Friday we discussed which general managers had the toughest jobs this offseason. Let’s take a look at the four teams best-positioned for this offseason. I evaluated them using five categories: major league roster, farm system, payroll/money to spend, trade bait and needs (plus a quick look at the GM's priorities).



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