The GM's Office by Jim Bowden: Atlanta Braves
The cream of the 2013 free-agent crop was obvious and expensive.
Teams entered the offseason flush with cash and spent prodigiously. Outfielder Josh Hamilton was the best position player, while B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn followed not far behind. Right-hander Zack Greinke was clearly the top free-agent pitcher available. All together, the four top free agents signed multiyear contracts worth close to $300 million.
And what do those teams have to show for it? The trio of outfielders has hit a combined .205 with a paltry nine home runs, five stolen bases and 93 strikeouts. Greinke added a lone win and a broken collarbone.
Conversely, there are a number of lower-priced free agents who are more than earning their paychecks. Since the top four free agents haven’t lived up to their usual performance levels, which free agents have been the best bargains in baseball so far? Here’s a ranking of the top 10 so far:
Note: Performance to date, salary and long-term commitment were all considered for this ranking.
Teams entered the offseason flush with cash and spent prodigiously. Outfielder Josh Hamilton was the best position player, while B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn followed not far behind. Right-hander Zack Greinke was clearly the top free-agent pitcher available. All together, the four top free agents signed multiyear contracts worth close to $300 million.
And what do those teams have to show for it? The trio of outfielders has hit a combined .205 with a paltry nine home runs, five stolen bases and 93 strikeouts. Greinke added a lone win and a broken collarbone.
Conversely, there are a number of lower-priced free agents who are more than earning their paychecks. Since the top four free agents haven’t lived up to their usual performance levels, which free agents have been the best bargains in baseball so far? Here’s a ranking of the top 10 so far:
Note: Performance to date, salary and long-term commitment were all considered for this ranking.
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With a month of the season in the books, rookies are making impacts on their teams across the majors. For some, their arrivals and performances were expected; others have been pleasant surprises.
I’ll be keeping track of this season’s rookie class in this regular rookie report, monitoring their performances and possible trade stock for when the July 31 trade deadline approaches. So here are the top 15 rookies in the major leagues right now based on how they are performing this year, as well as the next 15 ranked in chart form below.
For the first installment of the rookie report, click here.
1. Shelby Miller | RHP | Stock: Up
Miller is pitching up to the expectations of a first-round pick (picked 19th in 2009). After earning a spot in the rotation out of spring training, he has posted a 3-1 record with an ERA of 1.44 and a WHIP of 0.84. Miller is a strikeout/ground ball machine. He pounds the strike zone with a 91-95 mph fastball with nasty sink and provides plenty of ground ball outs. He consistently gets ahead of batters, which sets up a devastating 12-6 curveball. He’s the early front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year.
I’ll be keeping track of this season’s rookie class in this regular rookie report, monitoring their performances and possible trade stock for when the July 31 trade deadline approaches. So here are the top 15 rookies in the major leagues right now based on how they are performing this year, as well as the next 15 ranked in chart form below.
For the first installment of the rookie report, click here.
1. Shelby Miller | RHP | Stock: Up
Miller is pitching up to the expectations of a first-round pick (picked 19th in 2009). After earning a spot in the rotation out of spring training, he has posted a 3-1 record with an ERA of 1.44 and a WHIP of 0.84. Miller is a strikeout/ground ball machine. He pounds the strike zone with a 91-95 mph fastball with nasty sink and provides plenty of ground ball outs. He consistently gets ahead of batters, which sets up a devastating 12-6 curveball. He’s the early front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year.
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John Schuerholz spent 26 years as a general manager with the Kansas City Royals and Atlanta Braves, the last 17 of those with his Atlanta until he was named club president in the fall of 2007.
His success with the Braves is well documented, but less known is the line of succession he had in place. During Schuerholz's last few years in Atlanta, his scouting director was Dayton Moore, who Schuerholz hoped would eventually take his place as GM. The two were so tight that Moore was nicknamed John Schuerholz Jr. by many of the Braves' employees. However, instead of waiting for Schuerholz to get promoted, Moore took the first GM opportunity he received, accepting an offer from the Royals to be their GM in 2006.
Enter Frank Wren. Wren served as GM of the Baltimore Orioles in 1999 after serving as assistant GM for the Marlins from 1991-1998. After a rocky relationship with Orioles owner Peter Angelos, they parted ways, but not until Bud Selig had to get involved to make sure Wren got paid for his services. Wren quickly landed on his feet, as he was hired by Schuerholz as assistant GM, a position he would hold for eight seasons.
His success with the Braves is well documented, but less known is the line of succession he had in place. During Schuerholz's last few years in Atlanta, his scouting director was Dayton Moore, who Schuerholz hoped would eventually take his place as GM. The two were so tight that Moore was nicknamed John Schuerholz Jr. by many of the Braves' employees. However, instead of waiting for Schuerholz to get promoted, Moore took the first GM opportunity he received, accepting an offer from the Royals to be their GM in 2006.
Enter Frank Wren. Wren served as GM of the Baltimore Orioles in 1999 after serving as assistant GM for the Marlins from 1991-1998. After a rocky relationship with Orioles owner Peter Angelos, they parted ways, but not until Bud Selig had to get involved to make sure Wren got paid for his services. Wren quickly landed on his feet, as he was hired by Schuerholz as assistant GM, a position he would hold for eight seasons.
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Five early surprises: Can they keep it up? 
April, 19, 2013
Apr 19
11:30
AM ET
By
Jim Bowden | ESPN.com
During spring training, it's not easy to recognize which performances and numbers are legit and which are merely mirages. Spring numbers are never a truly accurate barometer of what to expect from a player during the season. Likewise, early-season numbers are almost as deceiving.
The following five players have enjoyed success early in 2013, but what are we to make of it? Could their terrific play in the first three weeks of the season foreshadow a breakout campaign? Whether resulting from more playing time or new skills acquired in the offseason, this group is performing at a high level right now. The only question is, can they keep it up?
1. Paul Maholm | LHP | Atlanta Braves
Last July, the Braves attempted to acquire Ryan Dempster from the Cubs, but Dempster exercised his no-trade clause. So the Braves instead traded prospects for another Cubs starter in Paul Maholm. It was fortuitous for the Braves as they later used the prospects offered in the Dempster trade to acquire Justin Upton from the Diamondbacks. More important, Maholm has simply been more successful than Dempster since the trade.
Maholm is 3-0 this year with a 0.00 ERA, yielding just 11 hits in 20 1/3 innings pitched while striking out 20 and walking just five. As Senior VP and GM Frank Wren described him to me this week, Maholm “has become a top-flight command-and-control left-handed starter.”
The following five players have enjoyed success early in 2013, but what are we to make of it? Could their terrific play in the first three weeks of the season foreshadow a breakout campaign? Whether resulting from more playing time or new skills acquired in the offseason, this group is performing at a high level right now. The only question is, can they keep it up?
1. Paul Maholm | LHP | Atlanta Braves
Last July, the Braves attempted to acquire Ryan Dempster from the Cubs, but Dempster exercised his no-trade clause. So the Braves instead traded prospects for another Cubs starter in Paul Maholm. It was fortuitous for the Braves as they later used the prospects offered in the Dempster trade to acquire Justin Upton from the Diamondbacks. More important, Maholm has simply been more successful than Dempster since the trade.
Maholm is 3-0 this year with a 0.00 ERA, yielding just 11 hits in 20 1/3 innings pitched while striking out 20 and walking just five. As Senior VP and GM Frank Wren described him to me this week, Maholm “has become a top-flight command-and-control left-handed starter.”
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With Friday’s news of right-hander Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers agreeing to a record-setting contract, the drama of whether baseball’s best pitcher would see free agency in two years came to an end.
Some could say it was predictable in a sense. After all, the Tigers would look extremely foolhardy to allow Verlander to walk via free agency after his current contract expires after 2014. Saying Verlander was going to sign an extension at some point isn’t going out very far on that proverbial limb. It’s just not a bold prediction.
So, what craziness could happen in 2013? With Opening Day just around the corner, here are my 10 bold predictions for the 2013 baseball season:
1. New York Yankees finish last in AL East.
It hasn’t happened in 22 years, since the Yankees finished 67-95 and seven games in back of the Milwaukee Brewers, but the Yankees could very easily go from first in 2012 to worst in 2013. And, with the American League’s largest payroll, there is additional pressure to win in addition to their own high standards of success.
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When Ruben Amaro Jr. took over as general manager of the Philadelphia Phillies following the 2008 season, he inherited a club that had just won the World Series. He went back to the World Series the next year, then made it back to the playoffs the following two seasons.
A year ago, I predicted the Phillies would miss the playoffs after five straight first-place finishes, and sure enough, they went 81-81. Now, for the first time as Phillies GM, Amaro finds himself in a really tough spot. With age, injuries and lack of depth catching up to his club, he has to start thinking about tearing down a team that is no better than the seventh-best in the National League.
It’s basically four months or bust for Amaro and the Phillies. If his team is not contending by the All-Star break, he must gut the team and start dealing his veterans while they retain some value and acquire young talent to replenish a depleted farm system. If Amaro decides to tear it down, everyone but Cole Hamels should be available via trade.
Thus, the following are five crucial questions Amaro’s team must answer within the first four months of the season. Otherwise, he should get to the task of tearing down and rebuilding the Phillies.
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Baseball is a results-oriented business. Players who do not produce do not last long. Some young players, however, are afforded more time and multiple chances to establish themselves because of the potential they’ve shown or their formidable physical skills. Others are veterans clinging to roster spots -- trying to prove they’re not washed up -- or injured players trying to re-establish themselves as starters.
For the following 10 players, spring is the start of a make-or-break season. If they succeed, they stave off critics and age for another season. If they don’t, this could be their last in the major leagues.
1. Michael Young | 3B | Veteran trying to prove he’s not in decline
At 36, Young is coming off his worst offensive year in more than a decade, hitting just .277/.312/.370 with 27 doubles and eight home runs. The Rangers couldn’t promise him a full-time role in 2013, so Young waived his trade veto rights to become Philadelphia’s everyday third baseman. Young served primarily as the Rangers’ DH and super-utility player, but his range has diminished, and some scouts question if he still has the first-step quickness needed to be adequate at third base. Young is still a clubhouse leader and is just one year removed from leading the AL with 213 hits. To many baseball evaluators' eyes, it looked as if his bat was slowing down. The Phillies are hoping that’s not the case.
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Ranking the offseason for all 30 teams
February, 12, 2013
Feb 12
1:40
PM ET
By
Jim Bowden | ESPN.com
It was an active offseason that witnessed the trade of a Cy Young Award winner, several large, multiteam trades and an inflated free-agent market. So to evaluate and rank the offseason of all 30 teams, I took into account the following factors:
• How it improved the team for 2013, as well as the next five years.
• How it affected payroll and budgets -- both short and long term.
• How it affected team chemistry and clubhouse culture.
• How effectively needs were filled -- through free agency, trade or farm system.
• The amount of money committed compared with the value received.
• Aggressiveness.
With spring camp upon us, we'll see whose offseason produces the best results. Here are the rankings of all 30 teams’ offseason campaigns.
1. Toronto Blue Jays | GM: Alex Anthopoulos
Acquired: RHPs R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, LHPs Mark Buehrle, Darren Oliver, SS Jose Reyes, C's Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas, IFs Emilio Bonifacio, Maicer Izturis, OF Melky Cabrera
Analysis: Anthopoulos had a tremendous offseason, making two of the biggest offseason trades in baseball history. It cost him some prospects, and when the dust settled the Blue Jays added three top-of-the-rotation starters to complement Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow to give the Jays the best five-man rotation in the division -- on paper. They now have the veteran leadership, speed, energy and enthusiasm to be a legitimate World Series contender.
• How it improved the team for 2013, as well as the next five years.
• How it affected payroll and budgets -- both short and long term.
• How it affected team chemistry and clubhouse culture.
• How effectively needs were filled -- through free agency, trade or farm system.
• The amount of money committed compared with the value received.
• Aggressiveness.
With spring camp upon us, we'll see whose offseason produces the best results. Here are the rankings of all 30 teams’ offseason campaigns.
1. Toronto Blue Jays | GM: Alex Anthopoulos
Acquired: RHPs R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, LHPs Mark Buehrle, Darren Oliver, SS Jose Reyes, C's Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas, IFs Emilio Bonifacio, Maicer Izturis, OF Melky Cabrera
Analysis: Anthopoulos had a tremendous offseason, making two of the biggest offseason trades in baseball history. It cost him some prospects, and when the dust settled the Blue Jays added three top-of-the-rotation starters to complement Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow to give the Jays the best five-man rotation in the division -- on paper. They now have the veteran leadership, speed, energy and enthusiasm to be a legitimate World Series contender.
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Seven potential breakout players in 2013
February, 7, 2013
Feb 7
2:00
PM ET
By
Jim Bowden | ESPN.com
There’s an old scouting adage: “He’ll tell us when he’s ready.”
While that mainly pertains to gauging minor league players and their major league readiness, it also applies to young major leaguers trying to live up to their potential and looking for that “breakout” season.
It’s that season when all the tools, talent and abilities come together to fulfill the many high expectations on all the scouting reports. It offers the talent evaluators confirmation that they got it right while proving the critics wrong.
Take a look at the breakout seasons Matt Kemp, Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Gonzalez enjoyed over the past several years. Long regarded as five-tool players with elite physical talent, their teams and fans waited and waited for the corresponding elite production to come. It happened for a 24-year-old Kemp in 2009, when he hit 26 homers with 101 RBIs and won his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards after slowly increasing his production since his major league debut in 2006. Likewise, the same explosion happened for Gonzalez in 2010 at age 24, and then for McCutchen in 2012 at age 25.
The 2013 season should be no different. Here are seven individuals, all just about the same age as our aforementioned trio, who have barely scratched the surface of their massive potential and are primed to be among baseball’s breakout players in 2013.
1. Justin Upton | OF | Age: 25
With six years of experience, Upton is primed to finally reach his potential. He’s different than Kemp, McCutchen and Gonzalez because he’s already had a successful start to his career that includes two All-Star appearances, a Silver Slugger Award and a top-five showing in 2011 NL MVP voting. He has the potential to produce 35 homers and 100 RBIs annually, but he has yet to put together a consistent year from start to finish that would really signify his arrival. Being traded to the Atlanta Braves might just be the trigger. Playing beside his brother B.J. and surrounded in the lineup with other elite young players such as Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman could spur him to bring his game to another level. The Diamondbacks didn’t believe in him and he will be motivated to show them that they were wrong to trade him.
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The phrase “timing is everything” might be cliché, but when it comes to deciding to which young superstar he should offer a multiyear contract, a general manager’s timing must be impeccable, as is his organization's evaluation and projection of a player's ability.
Signing players to long-term extensions benefits the team for two obvious reasons: It can save money in the long run and it delays a player’s free-agent eligibility. It behooves any club with good, young non-arbitration eligible players with four or fewer years of service to try to sign its best players long-term. The further a player is from free agency, the lower the deal and the greater the discount.
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Best fits, predictions for remaining FAs
January, 11, 2013
Jan 11
11:00
AM ET
By
Jim Bowden | ESPN.com
In about a month, pitchers and catchers will be reporting for spring training, and yet several significant free agents remain unemployed. Some were even once thought to be among the best in this offseason’s free agent class, but because of bad timing, trades or teams’ reluctance to part with draft picks, the lucrative contracts these players were seeking simply haven’t materialized.
Here are the best players left on the free agent market, as well as where they fit best and a prediction of where I think they will sign.
1. Michael Bourn | CF
The center fielder market collapsed pretty quickly for the best leadoff hitter and defensive center fielder in this year’s free agent market when the three NL East teams with obvious holes in center field filled their needs right out of the chute: The Washington Nationals traded with the Minnesota Twins for Denard Span. Then the Atlanta Braves signed B.J. Upton to a five-year, $75 million deal. Soon after, the Philadelphia Phillies acquired Ben Revere from the Twins.
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For the most part, major league general managers have enjoyed relative stability and continuity over the last few seasons. However, with so much turnover in managerial positions the last couple of years, there’s the likelihood that some general managers will lose their jobs soon, especially those who already have gone through multiple managers during their tenure.
Sure, the following general managers could prosper in 2013 and earn contract extensions, but each knows that his job could be in jeopardy if his club doesn't prosper. Here are the five general managers who will feel the heat the most, according to multiple industry sources:
1. Neal Huntington | Pittsburgh Pirates | Start Date: Sept. 25, 2007
Record during tenure: 377-472Notable moves: Drafting Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole; trading for Jeff Karstens, James McDonald and Wandy Rodriguez
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The next top prospects to be traded
December, 19, 2012
12/19/12
11:55
AM ET
By
Jim Bowden | ESPN.com
It’s not very often we have an offseason in which so many of the game’s top prospects are traded, but that’s exactly what's happened this winter with the Kansas City Royals dealing Wil Myers to the Tampa Bay Rays as part of the package for starter James Shields, as well as the Toronto Blue Jays trading catcher Travis d'Arnaud to the New York Mets in a blockbuster deal for NL Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey.
So naturally all of this movement raises the question: Who will be the next highly-touted prospect to be traded?
I don’t think it will be Texas Rangers rookie Jurickson Profar, largely because the Rangers already have turned down opportunities to trade him for Shields, Dickey and Justin Upton. Nor do I think any of the following prospects will be traded: Taijuan Walker (Seattle Mariners), Gerrit Cole (Pittsburgh Pirates), Francisco Lindor (Cleveland Indians), Dylan Bundy (Baltimore Orioles).
However, we are seeing teams show a willingness to trade elite young talent, and here are seven top prospects who could be dealt in 2013 for the right starting pitcher or middle-of-the-order impact bat:
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Michael Bourn is this year's Jayson Werth
December, 3, 2012
12/03/12
6:11
PM ET
By
Jim Bowden | ESPN.com
USA TODAY SportsMichael Bourn is right where Jayson Werth was a couple of years ago.When I made my predictions for how much each of the top free agents would get this winter, I had Michael Bourn getting the third-biggest deal of anyone, behind Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke.
Not only is Bourn coming off the best season of his career, but his agent is Scott Boras, who always knows how to get the most for his clients. That’s a recipe for a monster deal.
However, things are quiet on the Bourn front this week, and there isn’t an obvious destination for him. For that reason, I think he could end up with a team that no one expects, much like Jayson Werth, one of Boras’ high-profile clients from a couple of years ago.
Allow me to explain.
Given the availability of B.J. Upton (who already signed with the Atlanta Braves), Angel Pagan (who has agreed to terms with the Giants), Shane Victorino and Hamilton, there is no shortage of good center fielders on the free-agent market this winter. This means demand isn’t what it might be in other years. (Not to mention Dexter Fowler and Drew Stubbs, who are being shopped on the trade market.)
With Pagan and Upton off the board, two fewer teams will be vying for Bourn. The Philadelphia Phillies might be interested, but GM Ruben Amaro Jr. and Boras aren’t on great terms because of the ill-fated Ryan Madson deal that fell apart at the last minute a year ago. That could make negotiations difficult.
When faced with this situation in the past, Boras has been able to find a deal for his player from a source you wouldn’t expect. In 2010, there was no obvious fit for Werth, but Boras shocked the baseball world by getting him a seven-year, $126 million deal from the Washington Nationals, a team that was a bottom-feeder at the time.
Flash back a few more years, and you might remember that Ivan Rodriguez (a Boras guy) signed a four-year, $40 million contract with the Detroit Tigers when they were coming off of a 119-loss season. People said the Tigers were nuts, but Pudge led them to the World Series two years later.
When the money isn’t there from one of the “obvious” teams, Boras will go find it. So where will he find it for Bourn? I have some theories.
For starters, the Chicago Cubs: They’re rebuilding, but they have a very low payroll and plenty of money to spend. Boras could try to convince the Cubs that Bourn would give them some excitement at the top of their lineup, along with Starlin Castro, and keep fans interested while they rebuild.
The Seattle Mariners might be a destination for Bourn. They could have as much as $30 million to spend, and they're looking to make a big signing (or two) this winter.
Another possibility: the Miami Marlins. I know this sounds crazy, but I could see Boras making this pitch to Jeffrey Loria: “You need some good PR, the players' union is going to be on your back about not spending money, and you can replace Jose Reyes in the leadoff spot for less money.”
Remember, no one saw Pudge signing with Detroit back in 2004, and no one saw Werth to the Nats. Bourn is a man without an obvious destination right now, and don’t be shocked to see Boras deliver him to someone you wouldn’t expect -- like the Cubs.
Not every team will make a trade at this week’s winter meetings in Nashville, but every team could. With that in mind, let’s take a look at one player (or more) who could be on the trade block this week from each of the 30 teams.
Baltimore Orioles
Player: Brian Matusz, LHP
Reason: There are several teams that believe what Matusz did in relief for the Orioles down the stretch he can also do in the starting rotation if given another opportunity. The Orioles want a corner guy/DH, and they might have to use Matusz to fill that hole.
Possible trade partners: Mets, Padres, Indians, Cubs
American League
Baltimore Orioles
Player: Brian Matusz, LHP
Reason: There are several teams that believe what Matusz did in relief for the Orioles down the stretch he can also do in the starting rotation if given another opportunity. The Orioles want a corner guy/DH, and they might have to use Matusz to fill that hole.
Possible trade partners: Mets, Padres, Indians, Cubs
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ABOUT THIS BLOG
Jim Bowden
Bowden, who served as the senior vice president and GM for the Cincinnati Reds and the Washington Nationals, is an analyst for ESPN.com. In 1992, Bowden became the youngest GM in MLB history when the Reds hired him at age 31. The Reds finished in first place twice during his 10 years as GM, and he was named MLB Executive of the Year by Baseball America in 1999. After working for ESPN in 2004, Bowden became the first GM of the Washington Nationals when the franchise relocated from Montreal to Washington, D.C., in 2005, working in that role until the 2009 season. Bowden co-hosts the "Inside Pitch" radio show on Sirius XM satellite radio. Follow on Twitter: @JimBowdenESPNxm.
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FREE AGENT VALUE BOARD
What kind of contract will top free agents like Josh Hamilton get and where are they most likely to land this offseason? Bowden examines the top 50 free agents. Story »