The GM's Office: Atlanta Braves

Adam Wainwright and Bryce HarperGetty ImagesAdam Wainwright and Bryce Harper hope to meet up in the 2015 NLCS.
After touring both Arizona and most recently Florida, I have come to a relatively easy conclusion that the two best teams in the National League -- at least on paper as well as from the scouting seats this spring -- are the St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals. The Cardinals arrived in Jupiter, Florida, last month with a lot of questions surrounding their starting pitching mostly because of health reasons, but also because of the trade of Shelby Miller to the Braves in the offseason for right fielder Jason Heyward. Every single question has been answered positively. Adam Wainwright feels great and even clarified to me he is 100 percent. Michael Wacha looks like the Wacha of 2013 according to GM John Mozeliak. John Lackey and Lance Lynn look like the pitchers who helped the Cards win the division last year. In addition, all three starters fighting for the fifth job have pitched well enough to win the spot. Jaime Garcia has been the surprise of camp, not only completely healthy but pitching like he did when he was one of the league’s best left-handed starters. Carlos Martinez has shown that his fastball command is improving and he could start, even though he is expected to return to the eighth-inning role by Opening Day. Marco Gonzales has developed by light years this spring, adding a two-seam sinker, a cutter and a curveball, three new pitches to a repertoire that already included a solid four-seam fastball up in the zone and a plus-plus changeup he can use to get right- and left-handed hitters out. Heyward has fit in nicely in the clubhouse, has shown his elite defensive skills and the Cardinals’ brain trust is convinced it can get another level of talent out of Heyward's bat. With a completely healthy and happy clubhouse, this will be a tough team to beat, even for the ever-improving Pittsburgh Pirates. The Nationals entered spring training with MLB’s best team on paper, but unlike the Cardinals, they have not been so fortunate healthwise. Center fielder Denard Span will start the year on the disabled list with a right core muscle injury and is not expected to return until sometime in May. Anthony Rendon, their best position player, is also likely to start the year on the DL with a knee injury. They are waiting to see if left fielder Jayson Werth is ready for Opening Day and are cautiously optimistic according to GM Mike Rizzo, but I highly doubt he'll be ready to go either. Even when he is activated there is a big question of how much power he'll have because of the type of shoulder surgery he had.
Anthony Rendon
Brad Mills/USA TODAY SportsAnthony Rendon probably will start the year on the DL with a knee injury.
The best news is that their top six starters are relatively healthy, with Stephen Strasburg's sprained ankle tweak being the only minor injury so far. As good as this team is, they'll have to fight off strong competition from both the Marlins and Mets, who are way better than most people think and will give them a pennant race until the end. For the Nationals to live up to their potential, their two high-ceiling talents in outfielder Bryce Harper and Strasburg will have to take their games to elite status. Harper was recently dubbed the most overrated player in baseball by his peers in a recent ESPN The Magazine article. I can understand this because scouts and analysts like myself have been riding high on Harper’s 40-home run power ceiling. However, MLB players haven't seen him do it yet nor have they seen a consistent professional approach like his teammate Rendon's. However, make no doubt about it, he will reach his ceiling and when he does, those who call him overrated will start focusing on another player who hasn't done it yet. Remember, Harper is just 22 years old. He also has to deal with more off-field drama than most players and it has been overwhelming for him. However, when he finally learns how to leave it at the clubhouse door and not think about it again until he heads home after the game, watch out because he will reach that potential. At least 30 home runs are needed this year for the Nats to win it all, and I think he'll provide it. Strasburg, on the other hand, has a chance to win the Cy Young Award, despite the fact he's the Nationals’ third starter behind Max Scherzer and Jordan Zimmermann. I think Scherzer could be the key to Strasburg's success because Scherzer brings looseness, fun and happiness to the clubhouse and the tightly wound Strasburg will have to start having fun, especially with Gio Gonzalez and Matt Thornton on the same fun team as Scherzer. If the Nats can have a little more fun this year with their starting pitching, they should be facing the Cardinals in the NLCS.


Six managers already on the hot seat 

February, 1, 2015
Feb 1
12:26
PM ET
Ron Roenicke and Don MattinglyGetty ImagesManagers Ron Roenicke and Don Mattingly enter 2015 with immense pressure to win their divisions.
Major League Baseball's lack of job security in the game's most prominent roles is evident year after year, given all the pressure to win in a $9 billion business. And as pitchers and catchers prepare to report to spring training, there are already at least six major league managers who will arrive to camps in Arizona or Florida already on some type of hot seat with their leadership positions on the line.

Here are the top six managers that the industry believes are at the top of the hot seat list:

1. Ron Roenicke, Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers were in first place for the first five months of the 2014 season but collapsed at the end, losing 25 of their final 36 games.

To continue reading this article you must be an Insider

Five potential trades for Justin Upton 

December, 15, 2014
12/15/14
1:40
PM ET
UptonScott Cunningham/Getty ImagesWith just one year remaining on his contract, Justin Upton has been the subject of recent trade talks.
When the offseason began, many insiders believed a trio of power-hitting outfielders would be dealt, including former Dodger Matt Kemp, former Red Sox left fielder Yoenis Cespedes and the Braves' Justin Upton. Kemp already has been traded (to the Padres), as has Cespedes (to the Tigers) … now we wait to see where the Braves trade Upton.

At age 27, Upton is just entering his prime years after another solid season (.270/.342/.491, 34 doubles, 29 home runs, 102 RBIs). The Braves would love to sign him long term, but with the recent signing of Giancarlo Stanton and the Braves' own signing of Freddie Freeman, the market has quickly inflated in terms of both years and dollars, which lessens the Braves' chances of retaining him. Atlanta also has Evan Gattis, who can play catcher and left field (albeit below average) and whom they control for five more seasons. If the Braves are unable to extend Upton, the smart business decision would be to trade Gattis as well. The team would take a step back in 2015, but the Braves would be building a squad that is ready to win when their new ballpark opens in 2017.

The Braves are ideally looking for young starting pitching and a second base upgrade in return for Upton, but like any other trade scenario, they're more concerned about the overall talent, affordability and controllability coming back in this type of transaction.

There are at least five clubs that remain interested in Upton, and here's an idea of what the return would look like with each of those teams:

1. San Diego Padres

Padres rookie GM A.J. Preller is focused on improving the Padres' lineup for 2015 and is off to a great start in landing Kemp.

To continue reading this article you must be an Insider

10 bold predictions for this offseason 

November, 20, 2014
11/20/14
11:17
AM ET
Major League Baseball's offseason is in full swing, complete with 13-year contracts, a trade including a Gold Glover and a good, young pitcher, and a key free-agent signing or two. But that's just the beginning of this wild and wooly offseason.

With that, here are 10 bold predictions I see happening in the weeks ahead:

lastname
1. Jon Lester re-signs with the Boston Red Sox

Most analysts think Lester has pitched his last game for the Red Sox. … I'm not one of them. I think the Chicago Cubs will offer the most years (six) and dollars, but a return to Boston for fewer years (five) and less money is my prediction. The Red Sox desperately need a top-of-rotation starter and won't be a legitimate contender unless they get one. Lester was happy in Boston, and unless the Cubs blow the Sox's offer away, I think that's where he lands.


lastname
2. Marlins sign James Shields

The Marlins shocked the baseball world with the signing of Giancarlo Stanton to a 13-year deal, and they'll do it again by landing a top-of-rotation starter.

To continue reading this article you must be an Insider

John Hart's offseason to-do list 

September, 25, 2014
9/25/14
12:58
PM ET
John HartAP Photo/David TulisInterim Braves GM John Hart reportedly is mulling the team's offer to take over the job full-time.
Longtime executive John Hart has been offered the full-time general manager job (and senior VP) with the Atlanta Braves, and I think he will take it (although it might be for only the next three years before he passes the torch to 35-year-old John Coppolella). The Braves' GM job would give Hart an opportunity to put closure on his baseball career by building the type of starting rotation he wasn't able to in Cleveland or Texas while also making the Braves' lineup a force like he did in Cleveland.

I'm sure it's tough for Hart to walk away from his present lifestyle, which includes being an analyst for MLB Network and a senior adviser for the Braves, not to mention plenty of time with his family and on the golf course. But once a GM, always a GM, and there is no doubt the lifestyle he is enjoying now will be waiting for him on his 70th birthday, which is right about when he'd be ready to return to it.

To continue reading this article you must be an Insider

Possible pennant race X factors 

September, 5, 2014
9/05/14
3:40
PM ET
    Jarrod DysonAP Photo
    It's coming down to the wire, and every game counts in the pennant race. With several teams still clinging to postseason hopes, even the slightest developments -- an injury, a surprise performance, an emerging rookie -- can make the difference. These X factors can decide whether a team is playing October baseball or going home.

    Here are 14 American and National League players or managers who could be X factors for their teams as they march to the postseason.

    American League

    Kansas City Royals | Jarrod Dyson and Terrance Gore | OFs

    The Royals have the best two-speed weapons in the pennant race. Dyson and Gore, along with the Reds’ Billy Hamilton, are considered two of the fastest players in baseball right now. Dyson, 30, has stolen 33 bases this year and been caught just six times.

    To continue reading this article you must be an Insider

Mike Rizzo and Frank WrenAP PhotoWashington GM Mike Rizzo and Atlanta GM Frank Wren don't need to pull off a blockbuster this season.
Deadline objectives: NL East | NL Central | NL West | AL East | AL Central | AL West

The National League East has become a two-team race between the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves, with the second-place team still having a good chance to reel in one of the two wild-card berths. Neither team is expected to make a blockbuster deal by the trade deadline, but both are looking for the same thing: left-handed relief help and bench upgrades. Sometimes improving a team by inches rather than feet or yards can be the difference between making the postseason or going home.

The rest of the division should be sellers. The Marlins are hoping for enough wins between now and the deadline to become buyers, but realistically, they should be in sell mode. The Mets have Bartolo Colon and Daniel Murphy to offer in deals, while the Phillies should be open to trading every veteran on their roster.

In fact, the Phillies should be the center of attention between now and July 31 because there is not a "seller" in baseball with more talented difference-makers to trade. The difficult part for teams getting deals done with them will be dealing with all of the bad contracts, no-trade provisions and high return the Phillies are asking for in return.

With that in mind, let's take a look at where each team stands and who they should be looking to either acquire or trade away:


1. Washington Nationals: Buyers

Needs: Left-handed reliever and a bat off the bench.

Lefty reliever targets: Antonio Bastardo, Phillies; Neal Cotts, Rangers; Andrew Miller, Red Sox; James Russell, Cubs; Oliver Perez, Diamondbacks; Tony Sipp, Astros; Mike Dunn, Marlins.

Bench targets: Chris Carter, Astros; Chris Denorfia, Padres; Alejandro De Aza, White Sox; Jonny Gomes, Red Sox; Dayan Viciedo, White Sox; Jake Smolinski, Rangers; Mike Olt, Cubs; Drew Stubbs, Rockies.

What to expect: The Nationals don't need to make a move; they are the team to beat in the NL East and should be considered a legitimate World Series contender. They could stand to improve the two areas above, and I expect GM Mike Rizzo to upgrade one or the other by the trade deadline.

Trade I'd like to see happen: Right-handed pitching prospect Austin Voth to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for lefty reliever James Russell.

To continue reading this article you must be an Insider

David Price Al Messerschmidt/Getty ImagesMany believe it's only a matter of time before David Price gets traded.
Over the course of July, Jim Bowden will be looking at a number of high-profile trade candidates and explain what it would take for certain clubs to acquire that player.

Player: David Price | LHP | Tampa Bay Rays
Possible destinations: St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays


St. Louis Cardinals

Why? The Cardinals have had a plethora of pitching injuries lately, including shoulder injuries to Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia, a forearm injury to Kevin Siegrist, a hamstring injury to Joe Kelly and a back injury to Shelby Miller. A trade for Price would give them a postseason rotation of Price, Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn and Wacha, a group that compares favorably to those in Los Angeles (the Dodgers) and D.C.

Who? The Rays will start by asking for outfield prospect Oscar Tavares. If they could get Wil Myers for James Shields, then Tavares for Price only makes sense. However, St. Louis GM John Mozeliak will say "no," as he will when Rays GM Andrew Friedman follows up with "how about Wacha?"

Then the conversation will get serious and the Cardinals will probably have to part with either right-hander Miller or Carlos Martinez, as well as left-hander Marco Gonzalez.

To continue reading this article you must be an Insider

Blue Jays should trade for Samardzija 

May, 17, 2014
5/17/14
10:00
AM ET
Jeff SamardzijaScott Cunningham/Getty ImagesWith Toronto desperately in need of pitching, Jeff Samardzija would fit in well.
General managers use the first two months of the season to evaluate their teams, then try to improve the team through trades or calling up top prospects in the next two months. Then they try to tweak the team with waiver deals and September call-ups in the last two months.

Given this, teams are mainly concentrating on the draft and don’t focus full-time on trades until after the draft (June 5-7). However, GMs still are talking to each other and laying the foundation for deals. This includes letting other GMs know their interest in a particular player and at least offer a fair chance to trade for that player. Many GMs are also letting other teams know exactly who’s available and who’s untouchable.

Most of the big trades happen between the All-Star Game and the July 31 trade deadline as well as in August via waiver deals. Of course, that doesn’t mean there aren’t deals in May or June, and I like to think of these deals as "appetizer" trades, with the entrees coming closer to July 31. Often, these are minor deals, like when Chris Nelson was dealt from the Colorado Rockies to the New York Yankees last May. However, we sometimes get major deals in May.

For example, it was mid-May 1998 when the Dodgers traded Mike Piazza to the Marlins, who then traded him to the Mets a week later.

With 27 of the 30 teams within four games of the playoffs coming into the weekend, it is safe to assume there will be fewer teams "selling" than normal. More likely trades will be made between contenders that match up in roster depth and weaknesses.

Here are some possible "appetizer" trades I would like to see that would fill some important needs of these contending teams:

1. Toronto Blue Jays acquire RHP Jeff Samardzija from the Chicago Cubs

OK, this is not a traditional "appetizer" deal, and is more in line with those aforementioned Piazza deals. The Blue Jays lead the AL in home runs and are third in runs scored. They might have the best lineup in the AL East. However, for the Blue Jays to contend all season, they must make a trade for a starting pitcher.

To continue reading this article you must be an Insider

With the season's first month in the books, rookies have quickly had significant impact on their teams. The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals have new top-of-the-rotation rookie starters, the Atlanta Braves and Seattle Mariners are enjoying pleasant surprises in the back of their rotations, while the rookie shortstops of the Boston Red Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks are holding their own.

Once again, I'll be keeping track of this season's rookie class every month, which will be based on performance, scouting reports, advanced metrics, the players' actual development reports from the teams' general managers, managers and front office executives, as well as input from teammates and coaches who will comment on the players' intangibles from inside the clubhouses.

Without further delay, here are my top 10 rookies after the first month of the 2014 season. (Note: When I say a player's stock is "up" or "down," I'm referring to my expectations of him coming into the season.)

1. Masahiro Tanaka | RHP | Stock: Up
Tanaka went 24-0 for Japan's Rakuten Golden Eagles last season and has continued his undefeated streak here in the United States.

To continue reading this article you must be an Insider

Young stars I'd lock up long term now 

April, 5, 2014
4/05/14
10:15
AM ET
Manny MachadoBrad Penner/USA TODAY SportsManny Machado is one of several young stars Jim Bowden would lock up long term now.
As baseball’s revenues continue to break records year over year, clubs are well aware that, based on baseball history, those revenues normally get passed right down to the players.

Indeed, we’ve recently seen a flurry of six-year contract extensions by clubs for non-arbitration-eligible players in the past few months, including:

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels, $144.5 million
Yan Gomes, Cleveland Indians, $23 million
Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves, $32.4 million
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays, $25.5 million
Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians, $52.5 million

In addition to those six-year deals, there was also Freddie Freeman's eight-year, $135 million extension, which is the longest contract in Braves history.

This proactive method benefits the team and the player. For the teams, they get to pre-emptively buy out some of the player's free-agent years, which should save them millions of dollars considering the ridiculous pace at which free-agent salaries are escalating. In exchange, the players receive lifetime security yet are still able to test the free-agent market again at a reasonably young age.

The Trout deal broke records at almost every aspect, and the Teheran and Archer deals were riskier because of pitchers’ greater chance of landing on the disabled list at some point in their six-year contract.

Gomes was the biggest gamble because he hasn’t established the track record the others did to justify committing those types of dollars. Regardless of the risk, clubs cannot ignore the opportunity to save so much money, making contracts such as these no-brainers.

When I look around the league, I see a number of other candidates for these kind of long-term deals. Here are nine pre-arbitration players I think teams would have a chance to lock up, plus four Boras Corp. clients who probably have very little chance to sign now -- Scott Boras almost always recommends his players hold out for free agency ASAP -- but should try anyway.

As always, agents will use recent deals as a framework when negotiating, and I've noted some recent deals that would provide a guideline for each player in question.

Non-arbitration-eligible players clubs should extend now

1. Manny Machado | 3B | Service time: 1+056 | Agent: MVP Sports

Note: Service time is as of Opening Day, and "1+056" means one year, 56 days.

Machado had offseason knee surgery and started the year on the disabled list, so of course the Orioles will need to make sure he is 100 percent upon his return before doing a deal. However, once he is back to full strength, they should be aggressive in getting him locked up. The time will never be better, the price and value never lower.

To continue reading this article you must be an Insider

10 undervalued fantasy targets 

February, 26, 2014
2/26/14
10:00
AM ET
Ryan BraunMike McGinnis/Getty ImagesDespite the Biogenesis scandal, don't forget about Ryan Braun, who could put up big numbers.
Most fantasy baseball players are going to have the usual suspects atop their draft boards: Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen.

However, to "win" drafts, the key is to find the undervalued players. Perhaps a player is coming off of an injury-plagued campaign. Or he has perennially flown under the radar like Baltimore’s Chris Davis did for a couple of years before breaking out in 2013.

The one thing these undervalued targets all have in common is they’re coming off relatively poor seasons so a shrewd fantasy player could nab one or two at a lower draft slot than that player has traditionally had.

Here is a list of 10 players who I think will have significantly better seasons than they did in 2013. If you select them at the right spot, they could become difference-makers for your team.

1. Ryan Braun | RF | Milwaukee Brewers

Braun is coming off his worst season after being suspended for his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal. Certainly there are reasons to be concerned -- we don’t know if his career numbers were influenced by PED use, and he’s also switching positions.

I don't think Braun's success was a product of PEDs and believe he wants to prove that to the world.

To continue reading this article you must be an Insider

Simmons deal a steal for Atlanta 

February, 20, 2014
2/20/14
1:43
PM ET
The Atlanta Braves recently locked up Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran and Craig Kimbrel with long-term deals, and by adding Andrelton Simmons to that group with a seven-year, $58 million extension, they have identified what they believe is their long-term core.

As for the Simmons deal itself, there is no other way to put this: It is a fantastic bargain for the club.

The reason why this is such good value for the Braves is that they are signing Simmons for his spectacular defense, which typically costs less than offense, but I think he is going to develop into a much better hitter in time.

To continue reading this article you must be an Insider

Players who could lose jobs this spring 

February, 19, 2014
2/19/14
11:00
AM ET
Some players use spring training to get into playing shape, get their timing down, work on a new pitch or tweak their mechanics. Other players, however, know that time is running out, and if they have a poor spring, they could be out of a job.

Nothing is guaranteed during spring training, and that includes jobs. Here are seven players who are at risk of losing their jobs this spring.

1. Dan Uggla | 2B | Atlanta Braves

Uggla, 33, was a consistent performer from 2007 to '11, belting 30 home runs a season and playing a solid second base. He’s a three-time All-Star who signed a five-year, $62 million deal back in 2011.

To continue reading this article you must be an Insider

Kimbrel deal a win for Braves, industry 

February, 16, 2014
2/16/14
11:28
AM ET
KimbrelPouya Dianat/Getty ImagesCraig Kimbrel has fanned 14.9 batters per nine innings over the past two seasons.
The Atlanta Braves have been locking up young talent left and right. In recent weeks they have given long-term contracts to Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran that bought out arbitration and free-agent years, and on Sunday they did the same with Craig Kimbrel.

Kimbrel and the club were headed toward a potentially contentious arbitration battle, but they avoided the hearing by agreeing to a four-year deal worth $42 million with a fifth-year team option valued at $13 million. The Braves have to be thrilled with this deal, and I bet execs from other clubs are pleased to see it, as well.

Braves win

Kimbrel is just 25 years old, and in each of the past two years he posted an ERA lower than Mariano Rivera ever did.

To continue reading this article you must be an Insider

SPONSORED HEADLINES