Kelly's system, decline could vex Vick

February, 11, 2013
2/11/13
4:46
PM ET
John David Mercer/US PresswireWith his new one-year deal, Michael Vick might face even more contact in Chip Kelly's offense.
Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles agreed to a restructured contract on Monday, which could be worth as much as $10 million in 2013 before he becomes a free agent after the season. But is the deal right for the Eagles and Vick?

Recent decline
Vick went 8-3 in 11 starts for the Eagles in 2010, throwing 21 touchdowns with only six interceptions. Over the past two seasons, he’s 10-13 in 23 starts with just six more touchdowns than interceptions.

In 2010, Vick ranked fifth among quarterbacks with a 68.0 Total QBR on a scale from 0 to 100. That dropped slightly to 64.7 in 2011 before falling drastically last season. In 2012, Vick posted a 46.0 QBR, which was 26th in the NFL.

Vick was sidelined with a concussion in Week 10 and has only played in all 16 games once in his 10-year career.

Vick has fumbled 32 times in the past three seasons, losing 12 of them to the other team. Only Mark Sanchez has more fumbles in that span. The other four players with at least 27 fumbles since 2010 have all played at least 12 more games than Vick.

When Vick has played over the past two seasons, he has had troubles with turnovers -- especially in the red zone.

In his first season as the Eagles’ starter, Vick accounted for 22 touchdowns through the air and on the ground, with only one turnover in the red zone. In the past two seasons, he has averaged 12 touchdowns and five turnovers in the red zone. Those 10 red-zone turnovers since 2011 are the most in the NFL.

Philadelphia’s offense had one of its worst seasons in the past 15 years in 2012. The Eagles averaged 17.5 points per game and only scored touchdowns on 44 percent of red-zone possessions. Both numbers were the team’s worst since 1999.

The cause of the dropoff wasn’t Vick’s injury, though. The Eagles averaged the same number of yards per play with Vick off the field as when he played.

Chip Kelly’s offense
Over his career, Vick has averaged 7.0 yards per carry, the most in NFL history among players with at least 500 rushes. So he should fit well in Chip Kelly’s system, right?

While Vick is known as a running quarterback, Kelly’s offense at Oregon was even more run-heavy. Last season, 37 percent of Vick’s rushes were on designed rushing plays. At Oregon, 62 percent of QB rushes were on designed rushing plays.

One reason Vick has trouble staying on the field is the number of hits he takes. Despite only playing in 35 games over the past three seasons, Vick ranks second among all players in most times sacked or hit while throwing or rushing.

Financial impact
Under Vick’s old contract, he was scheduled to earn $15.5 million in total compensation in 2013. The only quarterback scheduled to earn more than that in total compensation in 2013 is Peyton Manning ($20 million).

To put Vick’s potential earnings of $10 million in perspective, 12 quarterbacks are scheduled to earn at least $10 million in total compensation in 2013. That number is expected to grow when Joe Flacco signs.

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