Stats endorse, warn on D-man prospects
August, 6, 2013
By Corey Pronman | ESPN.com
Tom Szczerbowski/US PresswireP.K. Subban's numbers painted him as a high-potential prospect.As noted in Tuesday's post regarding statistical insights on draft forwards, there has been an increased emphasis on analytics at the prospect level in the hockey world.
To review, many studies have shown there is notable predictive value in stat-based analysis for prospects. The main issues facing analytics for junior, collegiate and other levels is adjusting for context and trying to separate the relationship between production and the typical uncertainty/miss rate of projecting prospects. After all, stats can't tell you everything about prospects. They need to be adjusted for a variety of factors, they can't replace scouts, and they are subject to statistical noise. However, if used correctly for the NHL draft, stats can help teams find some overlooked sleepers and may prevent them from making a glaring mistake.