Stats endorse, warn on goalie prospects
August, 8, 2013
By Corey Pronman | ESPN Insider
Eliot J. Schechter/NHLI/Getty ImagesHenrik Lundqvist had the faith of his Swedish team, but NHL teams remained skeptical.This is the third and final piece in our series reflecting on where stats saw future success (or failure) on the horizon for draft picks. After first looking at forwards and then defensemen, we now look to the crease.
To review, many studies have shown there is notable predictive value in stat-based analysis for prospects. The main issues facing analytics for junior, collegiate and other levels are adjusting for context and trying to separate the relationship between production and the typical uncertainty/miss rate of projecting prospects. After all, stats can't tell you everything about prospects. They need to be adjusted for a variety of factors, they can't replace scouts, and they are subject to statistical noise. However, if used correctly for the NHL draft, stats can help teams find some overlooked sleepers and may prevent them from making a glaring mistake.