This edition of "Bracket Math" includes all games through Sunday, March 6. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-Curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.
After a wild weekend and some upsets in mid-major conference tournaments, here's how the S-Curve looks Monday morning. Check back for updates throughout the week.
With the first automatic bids now claimed, we've had to adjust the key to our chart slightly. Please note that teams in bold are the projected automatic bid winners for their conference. Teams in bold and all capital letters have clinched their conference's automatic bids.
*: Clinched regular-season title and NIT automatic bid if needed
Bold: Projected conference winners (highest remaining conference tournament seed)
CAPS and BOLD: Clinched automatic bid
GREEN: Teams with tourney odds of 85 percent or better through games of Feb. 22.
YELLOW: "Last four in" (will play March 15-16 in Dayton, Ohio)
GOLD: Lowest four auto-bids (will play March 15-16 in Dayton, Ohio)
RED: "First four out" (teams 69-72 on the S-curve)
ORANGE: "Next four out" (teams 73-76 on the S-Curve)
Take our "solid" at-large candidates (current tournament odds at 85 percent or better) and you have exactly 37 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers (Belmont, Indiana State, Morehead State and UNC Asheville), plus our projected conference tournament winners and that's another 21 spots. All told, we have 58 of the 68 spots accounted for, with only 10 up for grabs among current "Bubble" teams.
"BUBBLE" (21 teams for 10 spots)
IN (10, in S-Curve order): 39-Gonzaga, 40-Marquette, 41-Butler, 42-Richmond, 43-Michigan, 44-Clemson, 45-UAB, 46-Michigan St, 47-Boston College, 48-Virginia Tech, 49-Colorado
OUT (11, in S-Curve order): 69-Alabama, 70-Georgia, 71-Southern Cal, 72-Missouri St, 73-Baylor, 74-Washington St, 75-Nebraska, 76-Memphis,77-UTEP, 78-VCU, 79-Penn St.
Big East (11), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (4), Atlantic 10 (3), Mountain West (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), Horizon League (2), West Coast (2)
• Coastal Carolina (Big South)
• Fairfield (MAAC)
• Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt)
• Missouri State (MVC)
• Murray State (OVC)
• Vermont (America East)