Saint Mary's drops down S-curve

The Gaels are still in the latest bracket, but their loss to Gonzaga knocked them down a few spots. AP Photo/Julie Jacobson

This edition of Bracket Math includes all games through Monday. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.

After four more tourney tickets were punched on Monday night (and bubble teams survived a scare when the Old Dominion Monarchs edged out the Virginia Commonwealth Rams), here's how the S-curve looks Tuesday morning. Check back for updates throughout the week.

With multiple automatic bids now claimed, we've had to adjust the key to our chart slightly. Please note that teams in bold are the projected automatic-bid winners for their conference. Teams in bold and all capital letters have clinched their conference's automatic bids.

The S-curve

*: Clinched regular-season title and NIT automatic bid if needed

Bold: Projected conference winners (highest remaining conference tournament seed)

CAPS and BOLD (no *): Clinched automatic bid

GREEN: Teams with tourney odds of 85 percent or better through games of March 7.

YELLOW: "Last four in" (will play March 15-16 in Dayton, Ohio)

GOLD: Lowest four auto-bids (will play March 15-16 in Dayton, Ohio)

RED: "First four out" (teams 69-72 on the S-curve)

ORANGE: "Next four out" (teams 73-76 on the S-Curve)


Take our "solid" at-large candidates (current Tournament Odds at 85 percent or better), and you have exactly 38 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers, and that's another 20 spots. All told, we have 58 of the 68 spots accounted for, with only 10 up for grabs among current bubble teams.

BUBBLE (22 teams for 10 spots)

IN (11, in S-curve order): 39-Marquette, 40-Saint Mary's, 41-Butler, 42-Richmond, 43-Michigan, 44-Clemson, 45-UAB, 46-Michigan State, 47-Boston College, 48-Virginia Tech, 49-Colorado

OUT (11, in S-curve order): 69-Alabama, 70-Georgia, 71-Southern Cal, 72-Missouri State, 73-Baylor, 74-Washington State, 75-Nebraska, 76-Memphis, 77-UTEP, 78-VCU, 79-Penn State


Big East (11), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (4), Atlantic 10 (3), Mountain West (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), Horizon League (2), West Coast (2)


• Charleston (Southern)

• Coastal Carolina (Big South)

• Fairfield (MAAC)

• Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt)

• Missouri State (MVC)

• Murray State (OVC)

• Vermont (America East)