The Selection Sunday S curve 

March, 11, 2012
3/11/12
10:42
AM ET

Chris Fouch Geoff Burke/US PresswireThe Drexel Dragons have been bounced by the St. Bonaventure Bonnies' A-10 title win.
Editor's Note: This file has been updated to reflect St. Bonaventure's victory in the A-10 title game.

There's nothing to prepare yourself for Selection Sunday like a vigorous seed scrubbing. As game results have unfolded at a furious pace during the past two weeks, I hit the pause button the Saturday night before the bracket's release to scrutinize all of the seedings and make sure all resumes are reflected accurately on the S curve. In the process, we've had a few changes overnight.



With Kansas having lost, it now seems likely that the Big Ten title winner -- either Michigan State or Ohio State -- will earn the fourth No. 1 seed. The loser will get a No. 2, which is where the Jayhawks now fall as well.

The Drexel Dragons got a second life in the bracket, but it proved to be short-lived. The Dragons' continued presence was contingent on the St. Bonaventure Bonnies not stealing a bid. Now that the Bonnies have locked up the A-10 autobid, Drexel is back on the bubble's bad side, where it'll be joined by Mississippi State. The Bulldogs just closed the season too poorly (2-6 in their past eight games) to merit more consideration.

Another team hurt by the Bonnies' win is BYU, which now falls into the Last Four In and figures to play in the first-round games in Dayton.

Here's how the rest of the reviewed and reconfigured S curve plays out as of 3:45 p.m. ET Sunday.

The S Curve


ALL CAPS: Regular-season champion (NIT auto-bid if needed) or highest remaining seed

Bold: NCAA automatic qualifier

GREEN: Teams with tourney odds of 90 percent or better through games of 3:45 p.m. ET, March 11.

YELLOW: "Last four in" (will play March 13-14 in Dayton, Ohio)

GOLD: Lowest four auto-bids (will play March 13-14 in Dayton, Ohio)

RED: "First four out" (teams 69-72 on the S curve)

PURPLE: "Next four out" (teams 73-76 on the S curve)



Add the current AQs to the "solid" at-large candidates -- current tournament odds at 90 percent or better -- and there are now 63 teams in the field. Five spots are still up for grabs among current "Bubble" teams (four spots if St. Bonaventure wins the Atlantic 10 championship Sunday).

The bubble (11 teams for 5 spots)

IN (5, in S-curve order):

47-BYU, 48-South Florida, 49-N.C. State, 50-Seton Hall, 51-Drexel

OUT (6, in S-curve order)

69-Washington, 70-Mississippi St, 71-Iona, 72-Miami (Fla.), 73-Ole Miss, 74-Arizona

Conference breakdown


It wasn't the prettiest finish to their season, but the Seton Hall Pirates should earn a bid and play in the first-round games in Dayton. That will give the Big East a nation-best 10 bids. With Northwestern out, the Big Ten will earn six bids, equal to the Big 12's total.

Here's the rest of the breakdown:

ACC (5), Mountain West (4), SEC (4), Atlantic 10 (3-4, pending St. Bonaventure result), West Coast (3), Conference USA (2), Missouri Valley (2), Pac-12 (2), Colonial (1-2, pending St. Bonaventure result).

NCAA automatic qualifiers (27)


• UNC Asheville (Big South)

• Murray State (OVC)

• Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

• Creighton (Missouri Valley)

• VCU (Colonial)

• Loyola-Maryland (MAAC)

• Davidson (SoCon)

• Saint Mary's (WCC)

• Harvard (Ivy League)

• Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

• Detroit (Horizon League)

• South Dakota State (Summit)

• Long Island (NEC)

• Lehigh (Patriot League)

• Montana (Big Sky)

• Vermont (America East)

• Memphis (Conference USA)

• Norfolk State (MEAC)

• Lamar (Southland)

• Colorado (Pac-12)

• New Mexico (Mountain West)

• Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)

• Ohio University (MAC)

• Missouri (Pac-12)

• Louisville (Big East)

• Long Beach State (Big West)

• New Mexico State (WAC)

NIT AQs (11) *


• Drexel (CAA)*

• Iona (MAAC)*

• Nevada (WAC)*

• Oral Roberts (Summit)*

• Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt)*

• Akron (MAC)*

• Valparaiso (Horizon)

• Bucknell (Patriot)

• Savannah State (MEAC)

• Texas-Arlington (Southland)

• Stony Brook (America East)

* if not selected at-large


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