A peek inside teams' numbers
June, 8, 2010
By Chad Ford | ESPN.com
A number of old-school GMs remain dismissive when it comes to using stats to evaluate draft prospects, but more and more NBA teams are employing stat gurus to develop formulas that can predict pro success.
Some of them run teams, like the Houston Rockets' Daryl Morey. Others, like Dean Oliver of the Nuggets, have been key consultants for years. And a handful of other teams are getting into the stat game for the first time.
Teams are using everything from projected PER (player efficiency rating) to WARP (wins over replacement player), EWA (estimated wins added), and all sorts of variations and compilations of formulas to project NBA success. Every team has its own system, and they rarely produce exactly the same results.
Our own John Hollinger recently weighed in with his Draft Rater formula to break down the 2010 prospects.
Hollinger's top 10 closely mirrors the top 10 on our Big Board, with the exception of Greivis Vasquez, who falls outside our top 30.
I talked to three NBA executives who use various forms of statistical analysis to rank their players to get a feel for what they're seeing. The GMs agreed to share their statistically based top-10 lists as long as I didn't disclose the team and as I long as I didn't divulge the statistical methods they were using.
I then aggregated those lists, and here's a look at what they came up with: