Thursday, March 21, 2013
What will it take to lock up Posey?
By Jason Catania
The San Francisco Giants made it known earlier in the offseason that they were open to discussing a long-term extension with 2012 NL MVP Buster Posey. While no deal is completed or even imminent, there does seem to be a common interest on both sides.
CSNBayArea.com's Andy Baggarly wrote recently that the Giants and Posey have exchanged preliminary ideas about a multi-year extension with the goal to buy out Posey's next three arbitration-eligible years.
CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman followed up with a report that the two sides are, indeed, engaged in talks. He cautions, though, that there's a gap in terms of financial numbers -- but not one large enough to overcome.
Posey, who who turns 26 at the end of March and made $650,000 in his MVP campaign, will earn $8 million in 2013 -- a record settlement for a player in his first year of arbitration -- after agreeing with the club and avoiding his first round of arbitration. Because Posey qualified as a Super Two player, he will be eligible for arbitration four times instead of the typical three.
Considering his 2013 salary and his practically-unprecedented performance to this point of his young career, it wouldn't be hard to see Posey earn raises of at least $5 million each year via arbitration. In other words, if Posey's camp is really considering a three-year extension for 2014-2016, the total amount should start in the $50 million range. That's a steep price to pay for a player still in his arbitration years, but at least the Giants would have cost certainty and would avoid the strain of dealing with arbitration over the next three winters.
Speculating on a dollar figure for someone of Posey’s status can be tricky, though, but Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle pointed out that Ryan Howard and Tim Lincecum each got about $64 million during their four arbitration years.
Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com wrote earlier this offseason that, should the Giants look to buy out Posey's arbitration years as well as a few free agent years, too, he could be in line for a seven-year, $120 million contract, on top of his 2013 deal.
ESPN The Magazine's own Buster, Buster Olney, tweeted Monday afternoon that a Posey extension is likely to be more like the 12-year commitment the Reds have made to Joe Votto rather than a three-year pact that brings the player right up to free agency.