ESPN.com - What's next for Noel?

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Thursday, February 14, 2013
What's next for Noel?

By Luke Lapinski

UPDATE: While this has certainly been a rough couple of days for Nerlens Noel, the talented big man still has plenty to look forward to. Our own Chad Ford noted yesterday that Noel's torn ACL likely ends any chance he had at being the top pick in this summer's NBA draft. But he also points out that the incident shouldn't necessarily drop him too far on most draft boards. NBA GMs seem a little hesitant to use the No. 1 pick on a player coming off an injury like this, but they're certainly not going to let someone with his tremendous upside drop very far. Ford suggests he's likely still a top-five pick as long as his rehab goes well and he's able to get back to full strength in the six to eight month timetable that Kentucky has put on his return. To that end, he lists Noel at No. 3 on his updated big board.
---As it turns out, Nerlens Noel ended up suffering a torn ACL in last night's matchup with SEC rival Florida. The shot-blocking guru -- thought of by many as the potential No. 1 overall pick if he declared for this summer's NBA draft -- is expected to have surgery in the next two to three weeks and is done for the season. It remains to be seen exactly how this impacts his draft stock but, considering the fact that the top spot was already up for grabs, it certainly hurts that he won't be able to spend the next month making a case for himself. In fact, our own Chad Ford feels this likely ends any shot Noel had at going No. 1 overall -- at least in 2013. If he were to somehow opt to stay in college for his sophomore season, he might very well be able to work his way to the front of the pack again. A return to school seems pretty unlikely though.

This is obviously a huge blow for Kentucky too, who had just started to pull everything together and had finally cracked the Top 25 again before falling to the Gators last night. The Wildcats are a team with potential, and one that figured to get stronger as the season unfolds simply because there are so many talented freshmen developing in key roles. But losing Noel leaves them without their top rebounder and makes them much more susceptible to getting attacked inside. And that means other guys will have to step up in a big way if they want to make any noise this March.

Chad Ford

Short-term vs long-term impacts

"I spoke with a number of NBA GMs and scouts last night and this morning about how an ACL tear would affect Noel's draft stock. The good news is that players can completely recover from ACL tears and the injury (assuming it's not more serious than an ACL tear) should not affect his long-term status. The bad news is that all of them expressed reservations about drafting Noel with the No. 1 pick given the injury. In the wake of Greg Oden, NBA GMs are squeamish about making a mistake with the No. 1 pick -- especially with medical red flags."