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Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Why Arizona isn't a Final Four contender

By Joe Kaiser

Arizona have proven itself to be a solid team this season, but usually it takes more than solid to make it to the Final Four.

The No. 11 ranked Wildcats (23-4, 11-4 Pac-12) have rattled off three wins in a row after dropping consecutive games to California and Colorado two weeks back, and as of today would be a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament according to the latest update by ESPN's resident bracketologist Joe Lunardi. In fact, Lunardi writes that Arizona even has a 10 percent chance to grab a No. 1 seed in the big dance by the time all is said and done.

But ESPN Insider John Gasaway cautions today that Sean Miller's Wildcats, while good across the board, probably aren't strong enough to be a true Final Four contender this March.

John Gasaway
Arizona isn't exceptional in any one area
"To this point, Arizona has been a perimeter-oriented team that is not reaping the full benefits of a perimeter orientation. For example, although the Wildcats attempt a high number of shots from beyond the arc (37 percent of their attempts in Pac-12 play), they've connected from out there at just a 34 percent rate -- fair, but not especially harmful to opposing defenses. Similarly, a perimeter-oriented team customarily sports a very low turnover rate. UA, however, has given the ball away on 18 percent of possessions in conference play. That's good, but it's also a number that's more or less equivalent to the league average. All of which might seem like a rather tough grade to hand what is, after all, the Pac-12's best offense. But that's sort of my point. The best offense the Pac-12 can show us this season is one that's scoring just 1.06 points per possession in conference play. Meanwhile, the Arizona defense has performed at a similar level: solid, but not exceptional. That's fine, but those aren't the words that best describe the vast majority of teams that have reached the Final Four in recent seasons."